Trump makes third trip to Texas in less than a month despite Paxton audio leaks

Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images/File

President Donald Trump is making his third trip to Texas in less than a month to stump for a Senate candidate who’s privately questioned his political capital and whom the president has publicly insulted in personal terms.

Such is the final sprint to the November 3 midterm elections as the GOP faces an increasingly uphill battle to hold on to the Senate, with the path to the majority running through Texas.

Republicans are pouring millions into bolstering state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who polls have shown is facing a closer-than-expected race against Democrat James Talarico in a state Trump carried by more than 13 points in 2024 and that hasn’t elected any Democrats statewide since 1994.

Trump’s Wednesday appearance in San Antonio, one Texas GOP strategist said, will be closely watched for whether it can improve Paxton’s standing — which could determine continued investment in the state.

The president’s latest Texas trip — which comes less than a week after his last stop here — is part of an aggressive midterm travel blitz that has taken him to traditional red strongholds he overwhelmingly won two years ago, including Alabama, Oklahoma and Nebraska. The president has repeatedly told his rally crowds to “pretend” he’s on the ballot this fall, and his advisers believe their best hope for November is boosting base turnout .

But some Republicans , even in these red states, are looking for distance from the unpopular president. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott will not be at Trump’s Wednesday evening rally, citing scheduling conflicts. He skipped last week’s Trump appearance too.

“It’s pretty clear to me the Paxton team has made the calculation that they believe it’s absolutely worth it,” the Texas GOP strategist said.

But as Trump arrives Wednesday, Paxton is also making headlines for seeming to blame the president and some of his agenda for his struggles.

The GOP nominee told a group of donors and lobbyists last month that the Iran war and high gas prices are hurting his campaign, according to audio obtained by Axios on Wednesday. “I don’t make the decisions, and I don’t … know what’s behind some of the decisions,” he said, according to Axios. CNN has not independently verified the audio.

Paxton’s campaign dismissed the story. “The Attorney General said what every Texan already knows: gas and diesel prices are too high, and hardworking Texans are struggling at the pump and at the grocery store,” spokeswoman Madison Cercy told CNN in a statement, adding that Trump “is doing everything he can to bring prices down.”

But that followed The New York Times last week publishing audio of Paxton complaining that Trump’s midterm convention, held last month in Dallas, wasn’t helpful.

“So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers,” the Texas attorney general said. In a statement to CNN, Paxton senior adviser Nick Maddux called the Times story “manipulated nonsense” to “create a story that doesn’t exist.”

Paxton has been plagued by his own set of scandals , including securities fraud charges, which ended in a pre-trial agreement; allegations of infidelity; and a 2023 impeachment in the state House (the Senate acquitted him). But that baggage didn’t stop Trump from backing Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a primary runoff earlier this year.

Their relationship, however, has appeared fraught, even as Trump told reporters in the Oval Office Wednesday that he has no regrets about backing Paxton.

At a stop in Denton, Texas, last week, the president called Paxton “one of the most loyal people” — but also “a pain in the ass sometimes.”

Then there’s his frequent ribbing of the state attorney general’s appearance.

“Some may not like the way he dresses,” Trump said during a speech at the Dallas convention: “I don’t.”

Will Trump repeat that refrain Wednesday night?

The president “understands how important Texas is to efforts to try to keep the Senate in Republican control, so I think he can put all that aside and probably focus on the bigger picture,” said one Texas GOP operative unaffiliated with the Paxton campaign, granted anonymity to speak freely.

“But I’m sure he enjoys making Paxton squirm at the same time,” the operative added.

CNN has reached out to Paxton’s campaign about Trump’s latest visit.

Paxton’s comments reported by the Times underscore how the president’s unpopularity — his approval rating is 34% in the latest CNN Poll of Polls — may make him an unwelcome guest for some candidates.

And he is losing support among a group that helped propel him to victory in 2024. His approval rating among Latino voters was just 27%, according to a NBC News/Telemundo poll earlier this week. Trump may be looking to turn that tide with his visit to San Antonio, where the population is 64.6% Hispanic or Latino.

But that visit, the Texas Republican strategist said, comes with its own risk.

“Why go where you can potentially motivate the other side, rather than going to places like Lubbock or Amarillo or East Texas, where you can try to use that brand to actually motivate, you know, the type of voter that needs to turn out for Paxton to win?” the strategist said.

And Democrats see Trump’s return to Texas as a good sign for their side.

“If you have to pull in Donald Trump four times in the closing stretch of the campaign in Texas, then you have given up on independent voters. This is a loss mitigation strategy,” said one Texas Democratic operative.

The Senate race — and the GOP primary and runoff leading up to it — is already on track to be one of the nation’s most expensive.

The GOP-aligned bill in Texas is expected to exceed $300 million, with the party and its affiliated groups outspending Democrats by more than 5-to-1, CNN has previously reported . Since the end of the GOP runoff in late May, Republicans have spent $158 million on ads, with an additional $38 million in upcoming ad reservations, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact. Democrats, meanwhile, have spent about half that: $75 million on ads between late May and Tuesday, with $6 million reserved.

But that level of spending in deep-red Texas comes with consequences for the rest of the Senate map.

“A lot of us are very disappointed that our predictions have proven correct, and it’s going to cost somewhere between $100 and 200 million to save Ken Paxton as the Senate nominee,” said a Texas GOP strategist who had raised concerns about Paxton during the state’s primary.

“If we save Ken and lose the Senate majority because we’ve lost Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa and Ohio, the Monday morning quarterbacking is going to be biblical,” they added.

But Texas has seen close Senate races before, with Democrats’ hopes dashed at the ballot box. Eight years ago, Trump was a key surrogate for Ted Cruz when the senator faced then-rising Democratic star Beto O’Rourke. Cruz, unencumbered by the personal baggage Paxton is carrying this year, won his race by just 2.6 points.

That’s led to a debate about how much of this year’s close race is a reflection of the candidate matchup or the national environment and an unpopular president.

“If Paxton was a normal person, he probably would still eke it out. I mean, the state’s still structurally conservative,” said one DC-based GOP operative.

And the stakes of this year’s race could be bigger than just control of the Senate in 2027; it could carry ramifications for 2028 and beyond.

The Texas Republican operative compared a potential Talarico win to a “hole in the dam” that could give Democrats momentum to turn the state blue at the presidential level.

Paxton appears to recognize the stakes.

“If we lose Texas, we lose America,” he said in a social media post announcing Wednesday’s rally.

凯文迪奇/盖蒂图片社/文件

不到一个月的时间里，唐纳德·特朗普总统第三次前往德克萨斯州，为一位参议院候选人助选。这位候选人曾私下质疑特朗普的政治资本，并且特朗普总统也曾公开对他进行人身攻击。

这就是距离 11 月 3 日中期选举的最后冲刺阶段，共和党在保住参议院控制权方面面临着越来越大的困难，而通往多数席位的道路则要经过德克萨斯州。

共和党人正投入数百万美元来支持州检察长肯·帕克斯顿，民调显示，帕克斯顿与民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科的选情比预期更加胶着。特朗普在2024年以超过13个百分点的优势赢得了该州，而自1994年以来，该州还没有选出过任何民主党人担任州级职务。

一位德克萨斯州共和党策略师表示，特朗普周三在圣安东尼奥的露面将受到密切关注，以判断他能否改善帕克斯顿的支持率——这可能会决定该州是否会继续投资。

总统此次德州之行——距离他上次到访不到一周——是其中期选举密集竞选活动的一部分，此前他已走访了两年前他大获全胜的传统共和党票仓，包括阿拉巴马州、俄克拉荷马州和内布拉斯加州。总统多次告诉他的竞选集会支持者，要“假装”他今年秋天会参加选举，而他的顾问们认为，他们赢得11月大选的最大希望在于提高基本盘的投票率。

但即便在这些共和党占优势的州，一些共和党人也试图与这位不受欢迎的总统保持距离。德克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿博特以日程冲突为由，将不会出席特朗普周三晚间的竞选集会。他上周也缺席了特朗普的活动。

“在我看来，帕克斯顿团队显然已经权衡过，他们认为这样做绝对值得，”这位德克萨斯州共和党策略师说道。

但随着特朗普周三抵达，帕克斯顿也因似乎将自己的困境归咎于总统及其某些政策而成为新闻头条。

据Axios周三获得的录音显示，共和党总统候选人上个月告诉一群捐款人和游说者，伊朗战争和高油价正在损害他的竞选活动。Axios援引他的话说：“我不是决策者，我也不知道某些决策背后的原因。” CNN尚未独立核实该录音的真实性。

帕克斯顿竞选团队驳斥了这一报道。发言人麦迪逊·瑟西在一份声明中告诉CNN：“总检察长说的是每个德州人都知道的事：汽油和柴油价格太高，辛勤工作的德州人在加油站和超市购物时都面临着沉重的负担。”她还补充说，特朗普“正在尽一切努力降低物价”。

但此前，《纽约时报》上周公布了帕克斯顿的一段录音，他在录音中抱怨说，特朗普上个月在达拉斯举行的中期选举大会并没有什么帮助。

“说实话，那次大会之后，我们的支持率下降了，”德克萨斯州总检察长说道。帕克斯顿的高级顾问尼克·马杜克斯在给CNN的一份声明中称，《纽约时报》的报道是“捏造事实的胡说八道”，目的是“编造一个根本不存在的故事”。

帕克斯顿一直饱受一系列丑闻困扰，包括证券欺诈指控（最终以庭前和解告终）、婚外情指控，以及2023年州众议院对他发​​起的弹劾（参议院最终宣告他无罪）。但这些包袱并没有阻止特朗普在今年早些时候的初选决胜轮中支持帕克斯顿，而不是现任参议员约翰·科宁。

然而，尽管特朗普周三在椭圆形办公室告诉记者，他对支持帕克斯顿毫不后悔，但他们的关系似乎一直很紧张。

上周在德克萨斯州丹顿市停留期间，总统称帕克斯顿是“最忠诚的人之一”，但也“有时很令人讨厌”。

此外，他还经常拿州检察长的外貌开玩笑。

“有些人可能不喜欢他的穿着打扮，”特朗普在达拉斯大会上发表讲话时说，“我也不喜欢。”

特朗普周三晚上会重复这番言论吗？

一位与帕克斯顿竞选团队无关的德克萨斯州共和党人士表示：“总统明白德克萨斯州对于共和党保住参议院控制权的重要性，所以我认为他可以把这些都放在一边，专注于更重要的事情。”这位人士要求匿名发言。

“但我确信他同时也很享受让帕克斯顿难堪的感觉，”该特工补充道。

CNN已就特朗普的最新访问联系了帕克斯顿的竞选团队。

《泰晤士报》报道的帕克斯顿的评论凸显了总统的不受欢迎程度——在最新的 CNN 民调中，他的支持率仅为 34%——这可能会使他成为一些候选人不受欢迎的客人。

他正在失去那些曾在2024年助他赢得大选的群体的支持。根据本周早些时候NBC新闻/Telemundo的民调显示，他在拉丁裔选民中的支持率仅为27%。特朗普或许希望通过访问圣安东尼奥来扭转这一局面，该市64.6%的人口为西班牙裔或拉丁裔。

但这位德克萨斯州共和党策略师表示，这次访问也存在风险。

这位策略师说：“为什么要去那些可能会激励对方的地方，而不是去卢博克、阿马里洛或德克萨斯州东部这样的地方，在那里你可以利用你的品牌来真正激励那些需要出来支持帕克斯顿的选民呢？”

民主党人认为特朗普重返德克萨斯州对他们来说是个好兆头。

一位德克萨斯州民主党人士表示：“如果在德克萨斯州竞选的最后阶段，你不得不四次拉拢唐纳德·特朗普上台，那就说明你已经放弃了独立选民。这是一种减少损失的策略。”

参议院选举——以及此前的共和党初选和决选——已经注定将成为全国最昂贵的选举之一。

据CNN此前报道，德克萨斯州共和党阵营的竞选支出预计将超过3亿美元，该党及其附属团体的支出是民主党的五倍多。广告追踪公司AdImpact的数据显示，自5月底共和党初选决胜轮结束以来，共和党已在广告上花费了1.58亿美元，另有3800万美元的广告预订即将到期。与此同时，民主党的广告支出约为共和党的一半：从5月底到周二，共和党在广告上花费了7500万美元，另有600万美元的广告预订。

但是，在深红州德克萨斯州进行如此大规模的支出，会对参议院其他地区的选情产生影响。

“我们很多人都非常失望，因为我们的预测被证明是正确的，为了保住肯·帕克斯顿的参议院提名人选，我们将花费 1 亿到 2 亿美元，”一位德克萨斯州共和党策略师说道，他曾在该州初选期间对帕克斯顿表示担忧。

“如果我们保住了肯，却因为失去了阿拉斯加、缅因、北卡罗来纳、爱荷华和俄亥俄州而失去了参议院多数席位，那么事后诸葛亮就太可怕了，”他们补充道。

但德克萨斯州此前也曾出现过势均力敌的参议院选举，民主党的希望最终在投票中破灭。八年前，特朗普曾是参议员特德·克鲁兹的关键支持者，当时克鲁兹的对手是冉冉升起的民主党新星贝托·奥鲁克。克鲁兹没有像帕克斯顿今年这样背负着沉重的个人包袱，最终仅以2.6个百分点的微弱优势赢得了选举。

这就引发了一场辩论，即今年的激烈选战在多大程度上反映了候选人之间的竞争，又在多大程度上反映了国家环境和一位不受欢迎的总统。

一位常驻华盛顿特区的共和党人士表示：“如果帕克斯顿是个正常人，他或许还能勉强保住席位。我的意思是，这个州在结构上仍然是保守的。”

今年这场选举的意义可能不仅仅在于2027年参议院的控制权；它还可能对2028年及以后产生影响。

这位德克萨斯州共和党人士将塔拉里科可能获胜比作“大坝上的一个洞”，这可能会给民主党人带来动力，使他们在总统选举中将该州变成蓝色州。

帕克斯顿似乎意识到了其中的利害关系。

“如果我们失去了德克萨斯州，我们就失去了美国，”他在社交媒体上发帖宣布周三的集会时说道。