US Republicans, independents express low trust in election integrity: Poll

A Gallup survey highlights a deep – and historic – partisan divide over confidence in the country’s elections.

US President Donald Trump applauds as a crowd cheers during a rally in Vandalia, Ohio, on October 3, 2026 [Nathan Howard/Reuters]

With less than a month to go before the United States’ pivotal midterms, a new survey found that most independent voters and supporters of President Donald Trump’s Republican Party do not believe the elections will be honest.

Polling from the research firm Gallup, released on Wednesday, found that 37 percent of Republicans and 35 percent of independents have confidence in the country’s electoral system, significantly lower than the rate for Democrats, at 63 percent.

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The numbers highlight a deep, historic partisan divide over confidence in US elections.

The survey also suggests a counterintuitive relationship wherein the US voters who approve of Trump’s leadership also distrust the electoral system.

“Since 2025 and Trump’s return to the White House, the relationship between leadership approval and confidence in elections has disappeared,” Gallup wrote in a statement highlighting the results.

The firm added that the US is the only country out of more than 100 polled annually over the past 15 years to show this pattern: Trust in US election integrity is markedly higher among those who disapprove of the country’s leadership under Trump than those who approve.

That marks a shift in voter sentiment. In 2025, at the start of Trump’s second term, confidence in US elections “was nominally higher among approvers (51 percent) than disapprovers (45 percent)”, according to Gallup.

Now, 52 percent of those who disapprove of Trump’s leadership express confidence in US elections, compared with 41 percent of those who approve.

Overall, 49 percent of Americans said they were confident in the honesty of elections, while 51 percent said they were not. Those figures are unchanged from the country’s last midterm election in 2022.

Michael McNulty, the senior policy director at Issue One, a nonprofit that tracks the role of money in politics, has worked on more than 30 elections across the world.

He said the numbers, especially among Republicans, do not point towards problems in the US election system itself.

Rather, he blames Trump for sowing distrust in the election system among his base, particularly ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.

“The fact that Republicans trust elections less really is exactly the result of that false fraud narrative perpetrated over many years,” McNulty said. “I think Americans can trust the people who run their elections.”

Still, the US perspective towards election integrity appears to be a global outlier.

In more than 100 countries where Gallup tracks views of national leadership and confidence in elections, people who approve of their governments have generally been more likely to trust their country’s elections.

In 2025, a median of 70 percent of people across those countries who approved of their national leadership expressed confidence in the honesty of their elections, compared with 30 percent among those who disapproved.

“The current US pattern is highly unusual compared with the rest of the world,” Gallup wrote.

Under former US President Joe Biden, 81 percent of Americans who approved of the government also expressed confidence in elections, compared with just 30 percent of those who disapproved.

Gallup said this year’s unusual divide could have implications for the November elections, raising questions about whether some voters will view the results as legitimate.

Over the course of his second term in office, Trump and members of his administration have taken steps to upend the US voting system, including by launching investigations into the 2020 election, issuing executive orders to change voting procedures and demanding voter data from states.

Speaking to reporters outside the White House on Monday, Trump once again claimed that mail-in voting was prone to fraud, without providing evidence.

“No, vote by mail … I’d rather have a vote in person. But they can vote by mail if they want, because we seem to have no choice,” Trump said.

“What we’re concerned about is … there is a lot of cheating in vote by mail,” he added.

McNulty said Trump’s remarks are part of what he describes as an “election takeover playbook” aimed squarely at the president’s supporters.

“You use these false fraud narratives. You sow chaos. You undermine confidence, particularly among his own base and his own voters, because they’re the ones listening to him,” McNulty explained.

“And then you use that narrative to justify efforts” against the US electoral system, he added.

McNulty said voting organisations like his are preparing for the “very real threat” that Trump or Republican-aligned groups could challenge the midterm results.

But he is “confident” the US electoral system will stand up to any possible attempts to undermine it.

In response to a request for comment from Al Jazeera, White House spokesperson Lauren Bis instead blamed any decline in election-season trust on the Democratic Party’s refusal to implement Trump’s changes.

“Every American should be asking why the radical Left continues to fight against commonsense election integrity measures, like Voter ID and citizenship verification,” Bis wrote.

“President Trump has made clear: Anyone who illegally votes in our elections will be held accountable.”

State and federal law already prohibits non-citizen voting in federal elections. Critics, however, have accused Trump of seeking to implement further restrictions that would discourage or prevent citizens from exercising their legal right to vote.

盖洛普的一项调查凸显了美国民众对选举信心方面存在的深刻且由来已久的党派分歧。

2026年10月3日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在俄亥俄州范达利亚市的一次集会上鼓掌，人群也为他欢呼。[Nathan Howard/路透社]

距离美国关键的中期选举还有不到一个月的时间，一项新的调查发现，大多数独立选民和唐纳德·特朗普总统所在的共和党的支持者不相信选举会是公正的。

盖洛普民意调查公司周三公布的民调显示，37%的共和党人和35%的独立人士对该国的选举制度有信心，远低于民主党人的63%。

美国最高法院驳回特朗普的邮寄选票计划（共3条）：为何此事至关重要

问题 2（共 3 题）：为什么美国选举官员在中期选举前要为混乱局面做准备？

特朗普在俄亥俄州为共和党人集会，对中期选举前景仍不以为然（共3条，此为第3条）。

这些数字凸显了美国两党在选举信心方面根深蒂固的历史分歧。

调查还显示了一种反直觉的关系，即支持特朗普领导的美国选民同时也不信任选举制度。

盖洛普在一份声明中强调了调查结果，并写道：“自 2025 年特朗普重返白宫以来，领导人支持率与选举信心之间的关系已经消失。”

该公司补充说，在过去 15 年每年接受民意调查的 100 多个国家中，美国是唯一一个呈现出这种模式的国家：对美国选举公正性的信任度在那些不赞成特朗普领导的人群中明显高于那些赞成该领导的人群。

这标志着选民情绪的转变。根据盖洛普的调查，在2025年，也就是特朗普第二个任期开始时，对美国选举的信心“在赞成者（51%）中名义上高于反对者（45%）”。

现在，在不认可特朗普领导能力的人中，有 52% 的人对美国大选表示有信心，而认可特朗普领导能力的人中，只有 41% 的人有信心。

总体而言，49%的美国人表示对选举的公正性有信心，而51%的人表示没有信心。这些数据与2022年美国上次中期选举的数据相同。

迈克尔·麦克纳尔蒂是 Issue One 的高级政策主管，Issue One 是一家追踪金钱在政治中作用的非营利组织，他曾参与过世界各地 30 多次选举的工作。

他表示，这些数字，尤其是共和党人的数字，并不表明美国选举制度本身存在问题。

相反，他指责特朗普在其支持者中散布对选举制度的不信任，尤其是在 11 月 3 日中期选举之前。

麦克纳尔蒂说：“共和党人对选举信任度较低，这实际上正是多年来散布的所谓选举舞弊谣言所导致的。我认为美国民众可以信任那些负责选举的人。”

然而，美国对选举公正性的看法似乎在全球范围内是个例外。

在盖洛普追踪民众对国家领导力和选举信心的 100 多个国家中，对政府表示认可的人通常更倾向于信任本国的选举。

2025 年，在那些认可本国领导人的国家中，有 70% 的人对选举的公正性表示有信心，而那些不认可本国领导人的人中，只有 30% 的人表示有信心。

盖洛普写道：“与世界其他地区相比，美国目前的模式非常不寻常。”

在前美国总统乔·拜登执政期间，81%对政府表示认可的美国人也对选举表示有信心，而对政府表示不认可的美国人中只有30%对选举表示有信心。

盖洛普表示，今年这种不寻常的分歧可能会对11月的选举产生影响，引发人们对部分选民是否会认为选举结果合法性的质疑。

在特朗普的第二个任期内，他和他的政府成员采取了一系列措施来颠覆美国的投票制度，包括对 2020 年大选展开调查、发布行政命令改变投票程序以及要求各州提供选民数据。

周一，特朗​​普在白宫外对记者发表讲话时，再次声称邮寄投票容易出现舞弊，但没有提供证据。

“不，邮寄投票……我宁愿亲自投票。但如果他们愿意，也可以邮寄投票，因为我们似乎别无选择，”特朗普说。

“我们担心的是……邮寄投票中存在很多作弊行为，”他补充道。

麦克纳尔蒂表示，特朗普的言论是他所谓的“选举接管计划”的一部分，该计划的目标直指总统的支持者。

“你利用这些虚假的舞弊故事，散布混乱，破坏人们的信心，尤其是在他自己的支持者和选民中，因为他们才是听他话的人，”麦克纳尔蒂解释道。

“然后你利用这种说法来为反对美国选举制度的行为辩护，”他补充道。

麦克纳尔蒂表示，像他所在的组织这样的投票组织正在为特朗普或共和党结盟团体可能挑战中期选举结果的“非常现实的威胁”做准备。

但他“相信”美国选举制度能够经受住任何可能的破坏企图。

针对半岛电视台的置评请求，白宫发言人劳伦·比斯反而将选举季信任度的下降归咎于民主党拒绝实施特朗普的改革。

“每个美国人都应该问问自己，为什么激进左派还要继续反对常识性的选举诚信措施，比如选民身份识别和公民身份核查，”比斯写道。

“特朗普总统已经明确表示：任何在我们的选举中非法投票的人都将被追究责任。”

州和联邦法律早已禁止非公民在联邦选举中投票。然而，批评人士指责特朗普试图实施进一步的限制措施，以阻碍或阻止公民行使合法投票权。