Gulf Coast braces for Hurricane Isaias

Isaias has rapidly strengthened into the Atlantic season’s first hurricane en route to landfall on the northern Gulf Coast by the weekend. The storm could spawn tornadoes on its eastern side.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 25 counties, urging residents to prepare. Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued in two counties in the Florida panhandle. In neighboring Alabama, Gov. Kay Ivey announced a state of emergency for 40 counties.

Isaias could peak as a Category 2 with 110 mph winds by early Friday. It will weaken before making landfall as a dangerous hurricane by early Saturday morning.

Hurricane wind threat

Isaias will grow larger as it nears the coast, which means windy conditions could be felt across a wide area of the South, especially Friday night through Saturday.

Tropical storm-force winds — 39 mph or greater — could arrive on the coast by midday Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected near and just inland from where the center makes landfall by late Friday.

The wind could down trees and knock out power both at the coast and over 100 miles inland in parts of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi.

Beach homes along Alabama Gulf Coast urged to evacuate

Brandon Clement/CorClips

Popular vacation spots along Alabama’s southern shores are battening down ahead of the expected impacts of Isaias, which is forecast to make landfall on the US Gulf Coast later this week.

Dauphin Island has issued a voluntary evacuation order starting Thursday evening for approximately 350 to 400 homes, city Public Safety Supervisor Troy Gorlott told CNN. The recommended evacuations include primarily low beach areas in the west end of the island that are made up of vacation homes and rentals, Gorlott said.

People in coastal and low-lying areas in neighboring Baldwin County are also “encouraged to begin preparing and relocate if needed,” the county’s emergency management agency said.

Both Baldwin and Dauphin Island’s Mobile County are among the 40 Alabama counties under a state of emergency Gov. Kay Ivey declared Wednesday.

Isaias expected to bring dangerous storm surge

Powerful winds from Isaias will build up Gulf water and propel it toward the coast, pushing it onshore in what’s called storm surge.

Coastal flooding could start as soon as Friday morning, but the biggest push of dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will be near and just east of where the storm’s center makes landfall on Friday night.

Locations on the coast from eastern Mississippi to Alabama, including Mobile Bay and the western Florida Panhandle, could see 5 to 7 feet of inundation above normally dry ground if the peak surge happens at high tide. This could flood roads and damage structures near the coast.

Flooding rain threat

Three to 7 inches of rain is expected during the storm, with localized totals up to 10 inches, from far southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Up to 5 inches of rain could fall in other parts of the Southeast as far north and east as the Carolinas and the Tennessee Valley through Saturday.

The storm will move quickly, which will help keep flooding from being too widespread, but significant impacts are possible in limited areas. Isaias’ heaviest rain will lash southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, upping the flash flood threat there.

Isaias rapidly intensifies into season’s first Atlantic hurricane

Isaias has rapidly intensified into the Atlantic season’s first hurricane, putting the northern Gulf Coast on alert for dangerous storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rain ahead of an expected landfall late Friday or early Saturday.

Rapid intensification is when a storm’s sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less.

It could peak as a Category 2 with 110 mph winds by Thursday night or early Friday. It will likely weaken a bit after that, but still be a formidable hurricane when it makes landfall Friday night or early Saturday morning.

Hurricane and storm surge warnings, which predict 74 mph or stronger winds and life-threatening coastal flooding within 36 hours, were issued late Wednesday for parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

Oil companies halt Gulf production and evacuate workers ahead of Isaias

Chevron and Shell are shutting down production at some offshore facilities and evacuating workers as Isaias approaches.

Chevron said Wednesday it has begun shutting down production at four Gulf facilities and is evacuating all associated personnel. Production at its five other Gulf facilities remains at normal levels, though some additional workers are being brought ashore.

Shell is evacuating all workers and halting production at its Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito and Appomattox platforms, Reuters reported Wednesday.

The moves expand precautions announced Tuesday, when Shell said it was evacuating nonessential personnel from six offshore platforms. BP also said Tuesday it was removing nonessential workers and securing its offshore facilities.

Isaias could spawn tornadoes after dark Friday, heightening the danger

Tornadoes could develop late Friday into early Saturday across the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend and nearby southern Alabama, though cooler, more stable air could limit the threat.

Nighttime tornadoes are nearly twice as likely to be deadly as daytime tornadoes, a 2022 study found. Darkness makes them harder to spot, and sleeping residents can miss warnings.

Make sure you and your loved ones enable phone emergency alerts and have a weather radio or other way to receive alerts that can wake you.

Gulf Shores urges visitors to leave as storm threatens crowded festival destination

Gulf Shores has asked all non-residents to leave ahead of the storm, a particularly important concern because the city was hosting the annual National Shrimp Festival, which was canceled due to the storm.

Grant Brown, a public information officer for the City of Gulf Shores, tells CNN the city normally has about 18,000 residents, but the festival has pushed the population to more than 50,000. Officials are concerned that if residents need to evacuate at the same time visitors are trying to leave, traffic could quickly overwhelm the bridges and transportation system.

The city is monitoring the W.C. Holmes Memorial Bridge along State Highway 59 and says it will remain open unless conditions become too dangerous. Brown says the bridge will close in both directions if sustained winds reach 45 miles per hour.

Crews will begin pulling lifeguard stands off the beach on Thursday, using heavy equipment to move them out of harm’s way. The city expects to fly double-red flags and increase beach patrols to keep people out of the water as conditions deteriorate. Public facilities will begin shutting down Thursday at noon.

Brown says their biggest concern is rising water, with the ground already saturated from heavy rain. Officials are expecting five to seven feet of storm surge around high tide.

And the surf could become especially dangerous. Brown says waves could reach 20 feet Friday, creating what he described as an aggressive beach environment that could destroy sand dunes and damage infrastructure.

Isaias has rapidly intensified into the Atlantic season’s first hurricane, putting the northern Gulf Coast on alert for dangerous storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rain ahead of an expected landfall late Friday or early Saturday. Rapid intensification is when a storm’s sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less.

Check the “Local Impacts” tab for information on rain, wind, storm surge and tornado threats.

Our confidence in Isaias’ track and strength forecast is increasing. Gulf water is record warm for this time of year, which will fuel the storm, but its strength at landfall will likely be limited by hostile conditions in the atmosphere.

We have high confidence that the system will track north, impacting coastal areas from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle.

Where exactly Isaias makes landfall will hinge on how quickly the system tracks toward the coast, limiting our confidence a bit. We have high confidence it will be somewhere between eastern Louisiana and the Florida panhandle. Landfall is most likely sometime Friday night or early Saturday morning.

We have medium confidence in the strength forecast because it’s still uncertain how much the hostile conditions in the atmosphere will affect Isaias.

Isaias is forecast to become a potent hurricane while over the open Gulf, but conditions near the US coast — like storm-killing winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere — are expected to damage it before the storm makes landfall. If those hostile conditions pack less of a punch, Isaias could be stronger at landfall.

Either way, an impactful hurricane landfall is looking likely.

Parts of Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Louisiana and Mississippi are most at risk of heavy rain from this system. The downpours could start to ramp up along the coast as soon as Friday and then continue to soak the region while creeping farther inland through the weekend.

The hardest hit areas could see 3 to 7 inches of rain, with up to 10 inches in localized spots.

Some of the heaviest rain could impact areas from southern Mississippi through the Florida Panhandle. A Level 3 of 4 risk of flooding rain (the purple area in the graphic below) is in effect there Friday. The risk of flash flooding will expand farther inland over the Southeast Saturday.

Tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or more, with higher gusts, could reach the Gulf Coast by Friday evening as Isaias heads for the coastline. Wind this strong can take down some trees and cause power outages.

Hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or more are likely near and just inland of where Isaias makes landfall, but it’s still too early to pinpoint exactly where that will happen. The strongest winds will likely hit coastal areas from eastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, depending on the hurricane’s track.

Isaias will grow larger as it nears the coast, which means windy conditions will spread across a large portion of the Southeast later Friday and Saturday.

Storm surge is possible Friday night but its severity hinges on exactly how strong Isaias gets and when it makes landfall. Surge levels will be higher if Isaias comes ashore near high tide.

Isaias could produce tornadoes within its rainbands later Friday night through Saturday. Areas to the east of the storm’s center will be most at risk for these tornadoes, which should largely be short-lived and on the lower end of the EF Scale .

伊萨亚斯飓风迅速增强，成为今年大西洋飓风季的首个飓风，预计将于周末在墨西哥湾北部沿岸登陆。这场风暴的东侧可能出现龙卷风。

佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯宣布该州25个县进入紧急状态，并敦促居民做好准备。佛罗里达州狭长地带的两个县已发布强制撤离令。在邻近的阿拉巴马州，州长凯·艾维宣布该州40个县进入紧急状态。

伊萨亚斯飓风预计在周五清晨达到二级飓风强度，风速可达每小时110英里。在周六清晨登陆前，其强度将有所减弱，但仍将保持危险飓风的级别。

飓风风力威胁

伊萨亚斯飓风在接近海岸时会逐渐增强，这意味着南部大片地区可能会感受到大风天气，尤其是在周五晚上到周六。

热带风暴级强风（风速39英里/小时或更高）可能于周五中午抵达沿海地区。预计飓风中心将于周五晚些时候登陆，登陆点附近及内陆地区将出现飓风天气。

强风可能导致佛罗里达州狭长地带、阿拉巴马州和密西西比州部分地区沿海及内陆 100 英里以上的树木倒塌，并造成停电。

阿拉巴马州墨西哥湾沿岸海滩房屋业主被敦促撤离

Brandon Clement/CorClips

阿拉巴马州南部沿海的热门度假胜地正在加固防线，以应对预计于本周晚些时候登陆美国墨西哥湾沿岸的飓风伊萨亚斯的影响。

据CNN报道，多芬岛市公共安全主管特洛伊·戈洛特表示，该岛已于周四晚间发布自愿撤离令，涉及约350至400户居民。戈洛特称，建议撤离的区域主要位于岛屿西端地势较低的海滩地带，那里分布着度假屋和出租房屋。

邻近的鲍德温县应急管理机构表示，该县沿海和低洼地区的居民也被“鼓励开始做好准备，并在需要时搬迁”。

鲍德温县和多芬岛所在的莫比尔县都是阿拉巴马州州长凯·艾维周三宣布进入紧急状态的 40 个县之一。

预计伊萨亚斯飓风将带来危险的风暴潮。

来自伊萨亚斯飓风的强风将聚集墨西哥湾的海水，并将其推向海岸，形成所谓的风暴潮。

沿海洪水最早可能从周五早上开始，但危险且危及生命的风暴潮最猛烈的冲击将发生在风暴中心周五晚上登陆点附近及其以东地区。

从密西西比州东部到阿拉巴马州沿海地区，包括莫比尔湾和佛罗里达州西部狭长地带，如果风暴潮峰值出现在高潮时，可能会出现比正常干燥地面高出5到7英尺的洪水。这可能会导致道路被淹，并损坏沿海附近的建筑物。

暴雨引发洪水威胁

预计这场风暴将带来3至7英寸的降雨，从路易斯安那州东南部到佛罗里达州狭长地带，局部地区降雨量可能高达10英寸。东南部其他地区，包括北部和东部的卡罗来纳州和田纳西河谷，周六之前也可能出现高达5英寸的降雨。

这场风暴移动迅速，有助于控制洪灾范围，但部分地区仍可能受到严重影响。伊萨亚斯飓风带来的强降雨将袭击阿拉巴马州南部和佛罗里达州西部狭长地带，加剧当地的突发洪灾风险。

伊萨亚斯迅速增强为本季首个大西洋飓风

伊萨亚斯飓风迅速增强，成为大西洋飓风季的第一个飓风，预计将于周五晚些时候或周六凌晨登陆，届时墨西哥湾北部沿岸地区将面临危险的风暴潮、破坏性大风和暴雨。

快速增强是指风暴的持续风速在 24 小时或更短时间内增加至少 35 英里/小时。

预计到周四晚间或周五凌晨，飓风强度将达到二级，风速可达每小时110英里。之后强度可能会略有减弱，但周五晚间或周六凌晨登陆时仍将是一场威力强大的飓风。

周三晚些时候，密西西比州、阿拉巴马州和佛罗里达州的部分地区发布了飓风和风暴潮警报，预测36小时内将出现时速74英里或更强的强风以及危及生命的沿海洪水。

伊萨亚斯飓风来袭前，石油公司暂停墨西哥湾石油生产并撤离工人。

随着飓风伊萨亚斯逼近，雪佛龙和壳牌公司正在关闭部分海上设施的生产，并撤离工人。

雪佛龙公司周三表示，已开始关闭其位于墨西哥湾的四处设施，并撤离所有相关人员。其位于墨西哥湾的其他五处设施的生产仍维持正常水平，但部分额外工人已被调往岸上。

路透社周三报道，壳牌公司正在疏散其 Mars、Olympus、Ursa、Vito 和 Appomattox 平台的所有工人，并停止生产。

这些举措是在周二宣布的预防措施基础上进一步扩大的。当时，壳牌公司表示将从六个海上平台撤离非必要人员。英国石油公司也在周二表示，正在撤离非必要工作人员并加强其海上设施的安全。

伊萨亚斯飓风可能在周五夜幕降临后引发龙卷风，加剧危险。

周五晚些时候到周六凌晨，佛罗里达州狭长地带、大弯区和附近的阿拉巴马州南部可能会出现龙卷风，但较冷、较稳定的空气可能会限制这种威胁。

2022年的一项研究发现，夜间龙卷风的致命概率几乎是白天龙卷风的两倍。黑暗使龙卷风更难被发现，熟睡的居民可能会错过预警。

请确保您和您的家人启用手机紧急警报功能，并配备天气收音机或其他可以接收警报并能叫醒您的设备。

海湾海岸敦促游客离开，风暴威胁拥挤的节日目的地

海湾海岸市已要求所有非居民在风暴来临前离开，这尤其重要，因为该市正在举办一年一度的全国虾节，但由于风暴而被取消。

海湾海岸市公共信息官员格兰特·布朗告诉CNN，该市通常有大约18000名居民，但节日期间人口已超过50000人。官员们担心，如果居民和游客同时需要撤离，交通可能会迅速使桥梁和交通系统不堪重负。

市政府正在密切监测位于59号州际公路上的WC Holmes纪念桥，并表示除非情况变得过于危险，否则桥梁将保持开放。布朗表示，如果持续风速达到每小时45英里，桥梁将双向封闭。

工作人员将于周四开始拆除海滩上的救生员岗亭，并使用重型设备将其移至安全区域。随着海况恶化，市政府预计将升起双红旗并加强海滩巡逻，以防止人们下水。公共设施将于周四中午开始关闭。

布朗表示，他们最担心的是水位上涨，因为连日暴雨已经导致土壤饱和。官员们预计，高潮前后将出现五到七英尺的风暴潮。

海浪可能会变得格外危险。布朗表示，周五浪高可能达到20英尺，这将形成他所描述的极具破坏性的海滩环境，可能会摧毁沙丘并损坏基础设施。

伊萨亚斯飓风已迅速增强为今年大西洋飓风季的首个飓风，预计将于周五晚些时候或周六凌晨登陆，墨西哥湾北部沿岸地区已发布警报，防范危险的风暴潮、破坏性大风和暴雨。快速增强是指风暴的持续风速在24小时或更短时间内增加至少35英里/小时。

查看“本地影响”选项卡，了解有关降雨、大风、风暴潮和龙卷风威胁的信息。

我们对伊萨亚斯飓风路径和强度的预测越来越有信心。墨西哥湾海水温度创下往年同期新高，这将为风暴提供能量，但其登陆时的强度可能会受到大气中不利条件的限制。

我们非常有信心，该系统将向北移动，影响从路易斯安那州到佛罗里达州狭长地带的沿海地区。

伊萨亚斯飓风的具体登陆地点将取决于其向海岸移动的速度，这在一定程度上限制了我们预测的准确性。我们高度确信它将在路易斯安那州东部和佛罗里达州狭长地带之间的某个地方登陆。登陆时间很可能在周五晚上或周六凌晨。

我们对强度预测的信心中等，因为目前尚不确定大气中的不利条件会对伊萨亚斯飓风产生多大影响。

预计伊萨亚斯飓风在墨西哥湾上空会发展成强飓风，但美国沿海地区的恶劣天气——例如高层大气中足以摧毁风暴的强风——预计会在飓风登陆前对其造成破坏。如果这些不利因素的影响减弱，伊萨亚斯飓风登陆时的强度可能会更大。

无论如何，一场威力强大的飓风登陆似乎很有可能。

阿拉巴马州、佐治亚州、佛罗里达州狭长地带、路易斯安那州东南部和密西西比州的部分地区最容易受到此次天气系统带来的强降雨影响。沿海地区的降雨最早可能从周五开始增强，并在周末持续侵袭该地区，同时向内陆蔓延。

受灾最严重的地区可能会有 3 到 7 英寸的降雨，局部地区降雨量可能高达 10 英寸。

从密西西比州南部到佛罗里达州狭长地带的部分地区可能出现强降雨。周五，这些地区（下图紫色区域）将处于四级洪涝灾害风险等级中的三级。周六，东南部的内陆地区将面临更严重的突发性洪涝灾害风险。

热带风暴伊萨亚斯正向墨西哥湾沿岸逼近，预计周五晚间，墨西哥湾沿岸将出现风速达每小时39英里或以上的强风，阵风风速可能更高。如此强劲的风力足以吹倒树木，并造成停电。

飓风伊萨亚斯登陆点附近及内陆地区可能出现风速达每小时74英里或以上的飓风级强风，但目前尚无法准确预测登陆地点。根据飓风路径，从路易斯安那州东部到佛​​罗里达州狭长地带的沿海地区可能遭受最强风力袭击。

伊萨亚斯飓风在接近海岸时会逐渐增强，这意味着周五晚些时候和周六，东南部的大部分地区将出现大风天气。

周五晚间可能出现风暴潮，但其严重程度取决于伊萨亚斯飓风的强度和登陆时间。如果伊萨亚斯飓风在高潮时登陆，风暴潮水位将会更高。

伊萨亚斯飓风可能在周五晚间至周六期间在其雨带内产生龙卷风。风暴中心以东的地区最容易受到这些龙卷风的影响，但这些龙卷风大多持续时间较短，强度也应处于EF等级的较低水平。