The states that aren’t cooperating with Democrats’ Senate majority hopes

Cody Scanlan/The Des Moines Register/Pool/AP

Democrats’ path to the Senate majority is improving. In fact, recent polls have shown the party leading in three states that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024: Alaska, Ohio and Texas. Democrats need at least two of those to win the majority.

But even as it looks like they might clear that daunting threshold, other states are proving more difficult.

The polls in Iowa — which Trump also carried by double digits — have been closer than some surveys in Alaska, Ohio and Texas — including in new CNN polling released Thursday.

And even as Democrats look like they could win some pretty red states, they’re still struggling to lock down swing and even blue-leaning territory in Maine, Michigan and arguably New Hampshire. (There is also some question about Minnesota, but the data there is limited.)

The idea that, a month before the midterm election, Democrats would poll better in Ohio and Texas than in Maine and Michigan would’ve been called crazy a year ago. But that’s where we’re at.

So what do polls tell us about why that is? Let’s dig in.

The story here isn’t that Democrats are doing badly ; it’s just that they’re not polling as well as they have in Alaska, Ohio and Texas — despite Trump having carried all of those states by similar margins in 2024.

Recent quality polls have Democrats winning Alaska by 7 , Texas by 6 in a few polls , and Ohio by as much as 6 and 8 points.

But even as the new CNN polling showed a 6-point Democratic edge in Ohio, the CNN Iowa poll was neck-and-neck, with GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson at 45% and Democratic state Sen. Josh Turek at 43%. Other polls similarly show a pretty pure toss-up.

So why the difference?

The atmospherics don’t differ too much between Iowa and Ohio. In both states, the CNN polls show about three-quarters of likely voters said Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living, about 7 in 10 said gas prices have been at least a moderate hardship, and 55%-58% said tariffs have been bad for their states.

But Iowa appears somewhat less inclined to ditch Trump and the GOP. The president’s approval rating there (41%-42% in CNN and New York Times-Siena College polling) isn’t quite as low as in Ohio (36%-38%). And the CNN poll shows that 53% of likely voters in Iowa prefer GOP control of Congress, while 52% in Ohio prefer Democratic control.

Turek’s image numbers have also declined a bit. Fox News polling has shown the Iowa Democrat’s net image rating going from +18 in June (51% favorable to 33% unfavorable) to +8 in late September (48%-40%).

Also, Hinson appears to have done a good job rallying her base. While 66% of her voters in the CNN poll say their vote is mostly about voting for her rather than against her opponent, just 44% say the same of Ohio GOP Sen. Jon Husted.

This blue state might be Democrats’ biggest headache right now.

A recent New York Times poll showed Trump’s approval rating is more than 30 points underwater, but virtually every quality Senate poll is within the margin of error.

Some Democrats panicked when that Times poll showed GOP Sen. Susan Collins at 49% to Democratic former state Senate President Troy Jackson’s 46%.

Joseph Prezioso/Getty Images/File

The big problem for them is that voters just aren’t enamored of Jackson. His image was underwater in both Times (41% favorable to 49% unfavorable among likely voters) and Marist College (43%-47% among registered voters) polling.

And a CBS News-YouGov poll showed just 47% of Democrats and independents said they were glad he was the Democratic nominee, compared to 53% who preferred someone else.

The Times poll also showed likely voters said 51%-35% that the state was headed in the wrong direction. That was the worst of all the states where the Times has polled Senate races.

(And it would explain why Collins spent much of Tuesday’s debate attacking Maine’s Democratic leaders .)

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed led by 5 points among likely voters in the Times poll and 7 points among registered voters in a Marist poll. But other polls like a Fox News survey show a margin-of-error race.

It’s pretty clear the closeness of the race reflects at least some voter uncertainty about El-Sayed , a left-wing candidate whom many Democrats worried about nominating in the first place.

Jeff Kowalsky/AFP/Getty Images

El-Sayed lags the Democratic nominee for governor, Secretary of State Joceyln Benson, consistently in polling. And his image ratings are usually only about even.

The Times poll showed 50% of likely voters said El-Sayed was the more extreme candidate in the race, compared to 36% who said the same of Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers. The Fox poll showed 52% of voters were concerned about El-Sayed being too liberal — about as many as the 54% who worried about Rogers being too close to Trump.

All of which helps explain why El-Sayed is getting the least crossover voters from Republicans of any Democratic nominee in a major Senate race, according to a recent CNN review. While other Democrats are getting as much as double-digit support from GOP voters, he’s in the low single digits, according to polling.

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas has a lead over former GOP Sen. John E. Sununu in most recent quality polling. He led by 5 points in a Times poll and 8 points in a University of New Hampshire poll.

But Democrats will wish it weren’t even that close, given this is a state Kamala Harris carried in 2024.

Part of the reason it’s somewhat close is that Pappas’ image is only OK (43% favorable to 44% unfavorable in the Times poll).

Joseph Prezioso/Getty Images

Another is that GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte is popular and primed for reelection at the top of the ticket. She led by 11 points in the Times poll.

And then there’s the name ID that comes with Sununu. It’s not just that he comes from a famous political family in New Hampshire; his brother Chris Sununu was a popular GOP governor until just last year.

There is even speculation that some people think John E. Sununu is the former governor, and that that’s helping him. The Cook Political Report recently cited that as a factor helping John E. Sununu, whose campaign signs don’t include his first name. And the Washington Post recently found that some New Hampshire residents thought Chris Sununu was the one running for Senate .

However, to the extent that confusion is a factor, it could be mitigated as voters are bombarded with more ads and start to pay more attention to who is actually on the ballot.

科迪·斯坎伦/《得梅因纪事报》/Pool/美联社

民主党夺取参议院多数席位的前景正在好转。事实上，近期民调显示，在特朗普总统2024年大选中以两位数优势获胜的三个州——阿拉斯加州、俄亥俄州和德克萨斯州——民主党的支持率均领先。民主党至少需要拿下其中两个州才能赢得多数席位。

但即便他们看起来似乎能够跨越这个令人望而生畏的门槛，其他州的情况却更加艰难。

在爱荷华州（特朗普也以两位数优势获胜），民调结果比阿拉斯加州、俄亥俄州和德克萨斯州的一些民调结果更为接近，包括周四公布的 CNN 最新民调结果。

尽管民主党人看起来有可能赢得一些铁杆共和党州，但他们仍在努力拿下缅因州、密歇根州以及新罕布什尔州等摇摆州和倾向民主党的地区。（明尼苏达州的情况也存在一些疑问，但那里的数据有限。）

一年前，如果有人说中期选举前一个月，民主党在俄亥俄州和德克萨斯州的民调支持率会高于缅因州和密歇根州，那肯定会被认为是疯了。但这就是我们现在所处的境地。

那么，民意调查告诉我们这是为什么呢？让我们深入探讨一下。

问题的关键不在于民主党人表现不佳；而在于他们的民调支持率不如他们在阿拉斯加、俄亥俄和德克萨斯州的表现——尽管特朗普在 2024 年以类似的优势赢得了所有这些州。

最近的高质量民调显示，民主党在阿拉斯加州领先7个百分点，在德克萨斯州领先6个百分点（部分民调结果如此），在俄亥俄州领先6到8个百分点。

但即便CNN最新民调显示民主党在俄亥俄州领先6个百分点，CNN在爱荷华州的民调却显示双方势均力敌，共和党众议员阿什利·欣森的支持率为45%，民主党州参议员乔什·图雷克的支持率为43%。其他民调也显示双方胜负难料。

那么，区别究竟在哪里呢？

爱荷华州和俄亥俄州的民意环境大同小异。CNN的民调显示，在这两个州，约四分之三的潜在选民认为特朗普的政策推高了生活成本，约十分之七的人表示汽油价格至少造成了一定程度的困难，55%至58%的人认为关税对他们的州不利。

但爱荷华州似乎不太愿意抛弃特朗普和共和党。总统在该州的支持率（根据CNN和《纽约时报》-锡耶纳学院的民调，分别为41%和42%）虽然没有俄亥俄州那么低（分别为36%和38%），但仍然很高。CNN的民调显示，53%的爱荷华州潜在选民希望共和党控制国会，而52%的俄亥俄州潜在选民则希望民主党控制国会。

图雷克的形象指数也有所下降。福克斯新闻的民调显示，这位爱荷华州民主党人的净形象评分从6月份的+18（51%支持率，33%反对率）降至9月下旬的+8（48%支持率，40%反对率）。

此外，欣森似乎在动员支持者方面做得不错。CNN民调显示，66%的欣森支持者表示，他们投票主要是为了支持她，而不是为了反对她的对手；而对俄亥俄州共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德持同样观点的支持者仅占44%。

这个蓝州可能是民主党目前最大的难题。

《纽约时报》最近的一项民意调查显示，特朗普的支持率比反对率低了 30 多个百分点，但几乎所有高质量的参议院民意调查都在误差范围内。

《纽约时报》的民调显示，共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯的支持率为 49%，而民主党前州参议院议长特洛伊·杰克逊的支持率为 46%，这让一些民主党人感到恐慌。

Joseph Prezioso/Getty Images/文件

对他们来说，最大的问题是选民对杰克逊并不感冒。《纽约时报》和马里斯特学院的民调都显示，杰克逊的支持率均低于反对率（在可能投票的选民中，支持率为41%，反对率为49%）；在已登记选民中，支持率为43%，反对率为47%。

CBS 新闻-YouGov 民调显示，只有 47% 的民主党人和独立人士表示他们很高兴他成为民主党候选人，而 53% 的人则更倾向于其他人。

《纽约时报》的民调还显示，51%的可能选民认为该州正朝着错误的方向发展，而只有35%的选民持相反意见。这是《纽约时报》进行过参议院选举民调的所有州中情况最糟的。

（这也解释了为什么柯林斯在周二的辩论中花了大量时间攻击缅因州的民主党领导人。）

民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在《纽约时报》的民调中领先可能投票选民5个百分点，在马里斯特学院的民调中领先已登记选民7个百分点。但其他民调，例如福克斯新闻的调查，显示双方差距在误差范围内。

很明显，这场选战的胶着状态至少反映出一些选民对埃尔-赛义德（El-Sayed）的疑虑，这位左翼候选人最初就让许多民主党人感到担忧。

Jeff Kowalsky/AFP/Getty Images

埃尔-赛义德在民调中一直落后于民主党州长候选人、州务卿乔斯林·本森。而且他的形象评分通常也只是勉强及格。

《纽约时报》的民调显示，50%的潜在选民认为埃尔-赛义德是本次竞选中立场更为极端的候选人，而持相同观点的共和党前众议员迈克·罗杰斯则占36%。福克斯新闻的民调显示，52%的选民担心埃尔-赛义德过于自由派——这一比例与担心罗杰斯与特朗普走得太近的选民比例（54%）大致相同。

根据CNN最近的一项调查，所有这些都有助于解释为什么在所有民主党参议员候选人中，埃尔-赛义德获得的共和党选民支持率最低。民调显示，其他民主党候选人获得的共和党选民支持率高达两位数，而他的支持率却只有个位数。

在最近的大多数高质量民调中，民主党众议员克里斯·帕帕斯领先于前共和党参议员约翰·E·苏努努。他在《纽约时报》的民调中领先5个百分点，在新罕布什尔大学的民调中领先8个百分点。

但民主党人肯定希望选情不要这么胶着，因为卡马拉·哈里斯在 2024 年赢得了这个州。

部分原因是帕帕斯的形象只能算一般（《纽约时报》民意调查显示，43%的人支持他，44%的人反对他）。

Joseph Prezioso/Getty Images

另一个原因是，共和党州长凯莉·阿约特人气很高，有望在总统竞选中连任。她在《纽约时报》的民调中领先11个百分点。

此外，苏努努这个名字本身就具有很高的知名度。这不仅仅是因为他出身于新罕布什尔州一个著名的政治世家；他的哥哥克里斯·苏努努直到去年还是一位颇受欢迎的共和党州长。

甚至有人猜测，有些人误以为约翰·E·苏努努是前任州长，而这对他有利。《库克政治报告》最近指出，这是约翰·E·苏努努的一大优势，因为他的竞选标语上并没有出现他的名字。此外，《华盛顿邮报》最近也发现，一些新罕布什尔州居民误以为克里斯·苏努努才是参议员候选人。

然而，如果说混乱是一个因素，那么随着选民受到更多广告的冲击，并开始更加关注选票上究竟有哪些候选人，这种混乱可能会得到缓解。