Bets on midterm endorsements, rallies, dropouts and debates raise insider trading concerns

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What will Vice President JD Vance say while campaigning Friday in Ohio? Will the Texas Senate candidates debate by this Thursday? And who else will get an endorsement from former President Barack Obama, who has been on endorsement spree this week?

Unlike election outcomes, all of these political questions have knowable answers. Campaign staff and speechwriters are surely in the loop. And it’s now easier than ever to cash in on insider information through the massive expansion of prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where people can bet on real-life events.

Both companies are offering markets for every Senate, House and governor’s race this year. But they’ve also listed more than markets on midterm-related topics that are much more susceptible to insider trading because the outcomes can be known in advance.

Those super-specific midterm markets have attracted more than $20 million in trading volume, according to a new analysis from the nonpartisan Anti-Corruption Data Collective that was obtained by CNN.

These “knowable markets” include potential candidate withdrawals , major endorsements, where President Donald Trump will hold campaign events, what candidates will say at rallies and debates (known as “mention markets”), whether debates will happen, and which states will redraw their House districts.

“This is legal, and that’s part of the problem,” said Michael Hornsby, who is the co-director of the nonprofit Anti-Corruption Data Collective. “All of these things are knowable by the candidates, their campaigns, and by people close to them.”

CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events. But CNN editorial employees aren’t permitted to use prediction platforms.

The Biden administration tried to ban markets on election outcomes, but a federal appeals court struck down the effort in October 2024. The Trump administration has embraced prediction companies and is finalizing federal regulations that would allow election markets to keep flourishing.

With support from regulators, prediction sites now offer an average of 44 granular markets tied to each individual race, beyond simply who wins and loses, according to Hornsby’s nonpartisan group. He said companies like Kalshi and Polymarket are “creating an incentive for future public servants to trade on inside information.”

These corrupt incentives came to national attention this summer when Trump’s White House teleprompter operator was caught insider-trading on Kalshi “mention markets” for Trump speeches He settled a civil probe with federal regulators by paying a $65,000 fine

The companies say they have zero tolerance for insider trading.

So far this year, Kalshi has suspended at least six 2026 candidates for betting on their own races, in violation of platform rules. They say they’re continuously screening markets for irregular activity.

“We may see different types of insiders trying to break the rules on ‘knowable information,’ but it also may be simpler to prove insider trading in some of these cases, because the material information is narrower and easier to identify,” Kalshi’s head of enforcement, Bobby DeNault, said in a statement.

Polymarket hired a former FBI official to lead its investigations team, and regularly refers cases to the Justice Department for possible prosecution. And the company has “state-of-the-art surveillance” that includes specific measures to safeguard political markets, a spokesperson told CNN in a statement.

“Actions and decisions of political actors have incredible impacts on Americans across the country every day,” the spokesperson said. “Our markets bring transparency and information about some of the most consequential decisions being made in the country – information that should not be contained to lobbyists, donors and political insiders.”

The Anti-Corruption Data Collective report flagged possible suspicious activity in a Kalshi market about whether Graham Platner would drop out of the Maine Senate race, which is one of the “knowable markets” more prone to insider trading.

Platner won the Democratic nomination in June. Just a few weeks later, an ex-girlfriend publicly accused him of rape, which he denied. His support within the party collapsed and within days, he withdrew from the race.

Researchers from the watchdog group found dozens of potentially correlated trades on Kalshi, on longshot bets predicting Platner’s withdrawal, placed one night before, and immediately before, the rape accusation became public.

These patterns don’t prove insider trading, however, and the trades could be unrelated.

But it’s easy to imagine who might learn about the rape claims before the story came out: campaign staffers, donors, opposition researchers from both parties, other reporters, family and friends of the ex-girlfriend, and others.

“It started to get out that a really bad story was coming, at least one week beforehand,” a Democratic operative told CNN. “It could have been someone going off a rumor. It became a really poorly kept secret in Maine and DC.”

In a call with reporters on Tuesday, Kalshi’s top lobbyist, John Bivona, said the company screens its customers and prevents them from participating in markets where they could influence the outcome. This applies to candidates, campaign staffers, party officials, vendors, pollsters, and election workers.

Bivona said Kalshi follows “a stricter standard than federal insider trading law” and “scans every trade for suspicious timing and coordinated activity.”

Federal law makes it a crime to trade on non-public information when there is a duty of confidentiality – like trade secrets or government intelligence. Insider trading charges can be also brought against people who trade based on a tip from someone who was obligated to keep the information secret.

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副总统万斯周五在俄亥俄州竞选时会发表什么讲话？德克萨斯州参议员候选人能否在本周四之前进行辩论？本周一直在为多位候选人背书的前总统奥巴马，还会为哪些候选人背书？

与选举结果不同，所有这些政治问题都有已知的答案。竞选团队和演讲稿撰写人员肯定掌握着内幕消息。而且，随着Kalshi和Polymarket等预测平台的蓬勃发展，人们现在可以比以往任何时候都更容易地利用内部信息获利，在这些平台上，人们可以对现实生活中的事件进行投注。

这两家公司都为今年的参议院、众议院和州长选举提供投注市场。但他们也列出了更多与中期选举相关的市场，这些市场更容易受到内幕交易的影响，因为选举结果可以提前得知。

据 CNN 获得的无党派反腐败数据联盟的一项最新分析显示，这些高度具体的中期选举市场吸引了超过 2000 万美元的交易量。

这些“可知市场”包括潜在的候选人退出竞选、主要背书、唐纳德·特朗普总统将在哪里举行竞选活动、候选人将在集会和辩论中说什么（被称为“提及市场”）、辩论是否会举行，以及哪些州将重新划分其众议院选区。

“这是合法的，而这正是问题所在，”非营利组织反腐败数据联盟的联合主任迈克尔·霍恩斯比说。“所有这些事情，候选人、他们的竞选团队以及与他们关系密切的人都能知道。”

CNN与Kalshi建立了合作关系，并利用其数据报道重大事件。但CNN的编辑人员不允许使用预测平台。

拜登政府曾试图禁止选举结果市场，但联邦上诉法院于2024年10月驳回了这一努力。特朗普政府则对预测公司持欢迎态度，并正在敲定联邦法规，以允许选举市场继续蓬勃发展。

据霍恩斯比的无党派组织称，在监管机构的支持下，预测网站现在平均为每场选举提供44个细分市场，而不仅仅局限于预测谁胜谁负。他表示，像Kalshi和Polymarket这样的公司“正在刺激未来的公职人员利用内幕信息进行交易”。

今年夏天，特朗普的白宫提词器操作员因涉嫌利用卡尔希的“提及市场”进行内幕交易，为特朗普的演讲稿牟利，这些腐败的利益输送行为引起了全国的关注。他最终支付了6.5万美元的罚款，与联邦监管机构达成和解，结束了民事调查。

这些公司表示，他们对内幕交易零容忍。

今年以来，Kalshi 已暂停至少六名 2026 年总统候选人的参赛资格，原因是他们违反平台规则，参与了自己竞选的赌博活动。他们表示，他们会持续监控市场，以发现异常活动。

“我们可能会看到不同类型的内部人士试图违反‘可知信息’的规定，但在某些情况下，证明内幕交易也可能更容易，因为实质性信息的范围更窄，更容易识别，”Kalshi 的执法主管 Bobby DeNault 在一份声明中表示。

Polymarket聘请了一位前FBI官员领导其调查团队，并定期将案件移交司法部，以寻求可能的起诉。该公司发言人在一份声明中告诉CNN，该公司拥有“最先进的监控系统”，其中包括保护政治市场的具体措施。

发言人表示：“政治人物的行动和决策每天都对全美民众产生着巨大的影响。我们的市场能够让公众了解一些国家最重要的决策，这些信息不应该只掌握在游说者、捐助者和政治圈内人士手中。”

反腐败数据联盟的报告指出，卡尔希市场可能存在可疑活动，该市场涉及格雷厄姆·普拉特纳是否会退出缅因州参议员竞选，而缅因州参议员竞选是“可知市场”之一，更容易发生内幕交易。

普拉特纳在六月赢得了民主党总统候选人提名。仅仅几周后，他的前女友就公开指控他强奸，但他否认了这一指控。他在党内的支持率骤降，几天之内，他就退出了竞选。

监督机构的研究人员发现，在卡尔希身上有数十笔可能相关的交易，这些交易都是在普拉特纳宣布退赛的前一天晚上和之后立即进行的，押注卡尔希的赔率很低，而这些押注正是对普拉特纳退赛的预测。

然而，这些模式并不能证明存在内幕交易，而且这些交易也可能毫无关联。

但很容易想象，在报道出来之前，哪些人可能会知道强奸指控：竞选工作人员、捐助者、两党的反对派研究人员、其他记者、前女友的家人和朋友等等。

一位民主党人士告诉CNN：“至少提前一周，就有人开始透露将有一件非常糟糕的事情发生。这可能是有人根据谣言爆料。这件事在缅因州和华盛顿特区几乎成了公开的秘密。”

周二，卡尔希公司的首席游说员约翰·比沃纳在与记者的电话会议上表示，该公司会对客户进行筛选，并阻止他们参与可能影响选举结果的市场活动。这适用于候选人、竞选工作人员、政党官员、供应商、民调机构和选举工作人员。

比沃纳表示，卡尔希遵循“比联邦内幕交易法更严格的标准”，并且“会扫描每一笔交易，以发现可疑的时机和协调活动”。

联邦法律规定，利用非公开信息（例如商业秘密或政府情报）进行交易属于犯罪行为，尤其是在存在保密义务的情况下。如果有人利用负有保密义务的人提供的内幕消息进行交易，也可能被控以内幕交易罪。