‘Zero tolerance for disruptions.’ Hurricane Isaias could mess with America’s refining nerve center

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Hurricane Isaias is barreling down on the US Gulf Coast at a time when there’s almost no margin for error in the global energy system.

The biggest risk is that extreme flooding, wind or power outages from the Category 3 storm disrupts, damages or even destroys refineries.

The world is already relying on US refineries to process as much oil as possible to make up for a fuel supply crunch caused by war in the Middle East and Russia.

Analysts warn that even a small disruption could cause a big price hike in gas, diesel and jet fuel.

“There is zero tolerance for any disruptions right now,” said Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser at Gulf Oil. “If we lose a refinery — even just for a few weeks — it can manifest itself in very high prices very quickly.”

Beyond the danger to vital refineries, the storm has temporarily knocked offline almost two-thirds of the oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. And there is a risk that Hurricane Isaias delays crucial fuel deliveries to Florida.

The good news, relatively speaking, is that the path of the storm has veered far enough to the east that it could spare most, though not all, Gulf Coast refiners. Refineries in Louisiana are expected to avoid the worst of the storm.

Given the current path of the storm, Lipow said he’s “less concerned” about the risk to the overall system than a few days ago.

Still, Lipow says two major refineries are at significant risk from the storm: the Chevron facility in Pascagoula, Mississippi, and the Vertex facility in Mobile, Alabama.

Together, they process a combined 466,000 barrels per day, representing about 2.4% of the nation’s refining capacity, according to Lipow.

“Hurricane Isaias is a fuel supply event hitting a system already stretched by the Iran war,” analysts at Jefferies said in a report. “A small disruption now has outsized price consequences.”

The big question is whether extreme flooding or power outages in the region force the Chevron and Vertex refineries to shut down for a significant amount of time.

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Lipow notes that it can take up to two weeks to fully restart refineries even if they avoid damage.

“Severe flooding can put a refinery out of commission for months,” Lipow said.

Hurricane Ida in 2021 caused significant damage to refineries, forcing multiple shutdowns. That Category 4 storm unleashed such extreme flooding that Phillips 66 eventually pulled the plug on its Alliance Refinery in Belle Chasse, Louisiana. Repairs were so costly that the company opted to convert the facility to a terminal .

Kloza, the Gulf Oil executive, said he suspects both the Chevron and Vertex refineries will avoid catastrophic damage.

“I don’t think the hurricane is going to knock out these two refineries. But you do have to worry about the utilities. If you don’t have power, you can’t operate. That’s the biggest threat,” Kloza said.

Last month, an ExxonMobil refinery in Joliet, Illinois, experienced power problems that forced the facility to go offline. Gasoline and diesel prices skyrocketed, underscoring the low margin for error in the system.

If any refinery shuts down from the hurricane, it will force suppliers to withdraw more fuel from already-thin stockpiles, which act as shock absorbers during crises.

Commercial inventories of both gasoline and diesel are historically low for this time of year because of the fuel supply crunch caused by overseas outages in China, the Middle East and Russia.

Stockpiles of diesel, the workhorse fuel that powers the modern economy, are at the lowest seasonal level since federal data started in 1982.

Hurricane Isaias has already disrupted oil production in the Gulf of Mexico.

As of midday on Friday, oil companies shut in about 72% of the daily Gulf of Mexico oil production as a precaution.

Assuming there is no damage, those facilities should be able to resume production in short order.

Another potential issue is getting gasoline and fuel to Florida, a state that is reliant on shipments from Gulf Coast refineries because it lacks any major refineries of its own.

Lipow said there will likely be some “slight” delays getting fuel to Florida because tankers must wait for the storm to pass before crossing the Gulf of Mexico.

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飓风伊萨亚斯正猛烈袭击美国墨西哥湾沿岸，而此时全球能源系统几乎没有任何出错的余地。

最大的风险是，3 级飓风带来的极端洪水、大风或停电可能会扰乱、破坏甚至摧毁炼油厂。

由于中东和俄罗斯的战争导致燃料供应短缺，世界各国已经开始依赖美国炼油厂尽可能多地加工石油，以弥补这一缺口。

分析人士警告称，即使是小规模的供应中断也可能导致汽油、柴油和航空燃油价格大幅上涨。

“目前我们对任何中断都零容忍，”海湾石油公司首席能源顾问汤姆·克洛扎表示。“如果我们失去一家炼油厂——哪怕只是几周——也会很快导致油价飙升。”

除了对重要炼油厂构成威胁外，这场风暴还导致墨西哥湾近三分之二的石油产量暂时停产。此外，飓风伊萨亚斯还有可能延误佛罗里达州的关键燃料供应。

相对而言，好消息是风暴路径已向东偏移足够远，因此大部分（但并非全部）墨西哥湾沿岸炼油厂可能幸免于难。路易斯安那州的炼油厂预计能够躲过风暴最严重的冲击。

利波表示，鉴于风暴目前的路径，他对整个系统面临的风险“不再像几天前那样担忧”。

不过，利波表示，有两家大型炼油厂面临风暴的重大风险：位于密西西比州帕斯卡古拉的雪佛龙炼油厂和位于阿拉巴马州莫比尔的Vertex炼油厂。

据利波称，它们加起来每天可加工 466,000 桶原油，约占全国炼油能力的 2.4%。

杰富瑞分析师在一份报告中指出：“飓风伊萨亚斯对本已因伊朗战争而捉襟见肘的燃料供应系统造成了冲击。如今，哪怕是小小的供应中断，都会对价格产生巨大的影响。”

最大的问题是，该地区的极端洪水或停电是否会迫使雪佛龙和Vertex炼油厂长时间停产。

Dan Anderson/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

利波指出，即使炼油厂没有遭受损坏，也可能需要长达两周的时间才能完全重启。

“严重的洪水可能会使炼油厂停产数月，”利波说。

2021年的飓风艾达对炼油厂造成了严重破坏，导致多家炼油厂停产。这场四级飓风引发的极端洪水最终迫使菲利普斯66公司关闭了位于路易斯安那州贝尔查斯的联盟炼油厂。由于维修费用高昂，该公司最终选择将该炼油厂改建为码头。

海湾石油公司高管克洛扎表示，他怀疑雪佛龙和Vertex炼油厂都不会遭受灾难性损失。

“我不认为飓风会摧毁这两家炼油厂。但你确实需要担心公用设施。如果没有电力，就无法运营。这是最大的威胁，”克洛扎说。

上个月，埃克森美孚位于伊利诺伊州乔利埃特的炼油厂遭遇电力故障，被迫停产。汽油和柴油价格飙升，凸显了该系统容错率极低。

如果任何炼油厂因飓风而停产，将迫使供应商从本已稀少的库存中提取更多燃料，而库存的作用是在危机期间起到缓冲作用。

由于中国、中东和俄罗斯等海外地区燃料供应中断，导致燃料供应紧张，因此汽油和柴油的商业库存都处于历史低位。

柴油是现代经济的主要燃料，其库存量已降至自 1982 年联邦政府开始统计该数据以来的最低季节性水平。

飓风伊萨亚斯已经扰乱了墨西哥湾的石油生产。

截至周五中午，石油公司出于预防目的，关闭了墨西哥湾约 72% 的日石油产量。

假设没有遭受损失，这些设施应该能够很快恢复生产。

另一个潜在的问题是向佛罗里达州运送汽油和燃料，该州由于自身没有任何大型炼油厂，因此依赖于从墨西哥湾沿岸炼油厂的运输。

利波表示，由于油轮必须等到风暴过去才能穿越墨西哥湾，因此向佛罗里达州运送燃料可能会出现一些“轻微”延误。