Is Trump signalling a return to war with Iran after the midterms?

US media reports suggest he may be weighing strikes before the vote but the president has ruled that out.

President Donald Trump winks during a Columbus Day celebration in the East Room of the White House, October 9, 2026, in Washington [Alex Brandon/AP]

United States President Donald Trump has said that he does not intend to bomb Iran again until the November midterm elections, even though several US media outlets have reported that the Pentagon has drawn up plans to relaunch attacks before that vote.

Trump has been accused of misdirection on the issue in the past. The US launched its initial attacks on Iran on February 28, as talks with Iran were ongoing and despite Trump saying just the day before that he had not made any decision. One year previously, the US struck Iran towards the end of Israel’s June 2025 12-day war, despite Trump saying he would announce a decision about attacks “in two weeks”.

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Still, striking Iran ahead of the midterm elections would be risky for the administration as the war remains deeply unpopular with Americans.

Resuming the war afterwards may have less of a negative impact on Trump, who is not eligible to run for another term as US president anyway.

Here’s what we know about Trump’s plans.

What has been reported by US media?

In the past two days, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and other publications have reported claims by unnamed officials that the Pentagon has drawn up plans to attack Iran before the midterms, if authorised to do so.

On Wednesday, US publication Axios cited US and Israeli officials saying the Pentagon has instructed US Central Command (CENTCOM) to prepare for imminent major combat operations. The Atlantic also reported along similar lines.

What has Trump said?

On Thursday, Trump posted on his Truth Social media platform that he will not order a resumption of strikes on Iran before November 3, when the US midterm elections will be held.

“I want to make it clear to everybody that, while Iran is in very bad condition…we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd,” he said.

The president added that the US is presently “having productive discussions” with the Iranian side. However, that was also the case on February 28, the day the US and Israel first struck Iran, triggering the war.

Trump did not make any reference to preparing for potential military operations, nor did he provide more details on the state of talks.

Why might Trump be hesitant about resuming bombing before the midterms?

Trump and Republicans are worried about a voter backlash against the war at the polls. The US war on Iran is intensely unpopular domestically as Americans have had to grapple with surging prices of gas, food and other basic commodities because of the crisis in the Middle East.

Since the start of the war, surveys have shown that large numbers of Americans did not approve of striking Iran.

Now, about 65 percent of Americans say they “disapprove” of the way in which Trump has handled the Iran war overall, according to a Pew Research Center poll released on Thursday. Trump stated at the start of the war that it would go on for just a few weeks, however, it is now into its eighth month.

According to Pew, most Americans now believe the war will continue for at least another year. Even Republican or more conservative-leaning voters are growing more negative about the war, its poll found.

The conflict has also severely affected Trump’s personal ratings and eroded support for Republicans. A Reuters/Ipsos poll on Thursday found that only 30 percent of his supporters were enthusiastic about voting in the midterms, compared with 48 percent of Democratic voters.

About 13 percent of those who voted for Trump in 2024 say they are not sure who to vote for in the congressional elections.

Delaying attacks until after the elections could potentially shield Republican candidates from voter backlash, analysts say.

While analysts say Trump will see a good performance at the polls as approval for renewed strikes, a Republican defeat at the polls could equally further incentivise him to hit Iran again as he will calculate that he has little to lose at that point.

While that could further affect Trump’s ratings, the president is not eligible to run in the next presidential election in any case.

Will the US restart the war after the midterms?

In recent weeks, the US president has threatened to “end” the war with force after the elections as talks with Iran have dragged on.

At a Republican convention in September, he accused Iran of trying to affect the outcome of the midterms and said that conflict “is going to end immediately after the elections”.

In an interview with Time magazine two weeks ago, he also said it would be “possible” to ramp up bombing in Iran after the elections, but declined to elaborate. Analysts say his comments were designed to calm voters, while at the same time warning Iran of potential aggression after the vote.

Last week, the US military dispatched about 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines aboard several ships now sailing to the Middle East amid threats of new attacks from Trump. The vessel formation included the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group.

The deployment increases the number of US troops in the region to 20,000, alongside hundreds of aircraft and at least three carrier strike groups.

In the past, US troop build-up in the Middle East and the Caribbean has subsequently resulted in military action.

In June, Washington and Iran signed a ceasefire agreement that quickly broke down over control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump has repeatedly said that the US has the upper hand in the strait, citing more oil exports and Iran’s weakened economy. He has also voiced aversion to a deal with Tehran over management of Hormuz, but said he might consider it because “they’re willing to offer us anything to stop”.

Washington rejected a recent proposal from Iran to reopen the strait based on certain conditions it wants the US to meet, including the lifting of sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets and guaranteeing an end to attacks. Last week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran was considering a counterproposal from the US.

美国媒体报道称，他可能正在考虑在投票前采取罢工行动，但总统已经排除了这种可能性。

2026年10月9日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在华盛顿白宫东厅举行的哥伦布日庆祝活动上眨眼 [Alex Brandon/AP]

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，他不打算在11月中期选举前再次轰炸伊朗，尽管多家美国媒体报道称，五角大楼已经制定了在选举前重新发动袭击的计划。

特朗普过去曾被指责在这个问题上误导公众。2月28日，美国对伊朗发动了首次军事打击，当时美伊谈判仍在进行，而就在前一天，特朗普还声称尚未做出任何决定。一年前，在以色列与伊朗爆发为期12天的战争即将结束之际，美国也对伊朗发动了袭击，尽管特朗普当时表示将在“两周内”宣布是否发动袭击的决定。

特朗普称美国不会在中期选举前打击伊朗（共4条，第1条）

受伊朗战争担忧重燃导致油价波动的影响，美国四只股票中的第二只下跌。

10月7日，第3/4项措施重新划分了中东版图，开辟了新的断层线。

列表 4/4：霍尔木兹海峡奖金：伊朗战争期间，过境水手薪资飙升

不过，在中期选举前打击伊朗对美国政府来说风险很大，因为这场战争在美国民众中仍然非常不受欢迎。

战后恢复战争对特朗普的负面影响可能较小，因为他无论如何都没有资格再次竞选美国总统。

以下是我们对特朗普计划的了解。

美国媒体报道了什么？

过去两天，《纽约时报》、《华尔街日报》和其他出版物援引匿名官员的话报道称，如果获得授权，五角大楼已经制定了在中期选举前攻击伊朗的计划。

周三，美国媒体Axios援引美国和以色列官员的话称，五角大楼已指示美国中央司令部（CENTCOM）做好应对即将发生的大规模作战行动的准备。《大西洋月刊》也报道了类似内容。

特朗普说了什么？

周四，特朗普在他的“真相社交媒体”平台上发帖称，在11月3日美国中期选举之前，他不会下令恢复对伊朗的打击。

“我想向所有人明确表示，虽然伊朗的局势非常糟糕……但在11月3日美国举行中期选举之前，我们绝不会攻击伊朗，”他说。

总统补充说，美国目前正与伊朗方面进行“富有成效的对话”。然而，2月28日，也就是美国和以色列首次袭击伊朗、引发战争的那一天，情况也是如此。

特朗普没有提及为潜在的军事行动做准备，也没有提供有关谈判进展的更多细节。

为什么特朗普在中期选举前对恢复轰炸行动犹豫不决？

特朗普和共和党人担心选民会在选举中对这场战争产生反弹。由于中东危机导致汽油、食品和其他基本生活用品价格飙升，美国对伊朗的战争在国内极不受欢迎。

自战争开始以来，调查显示，大量美国人不赞成打击伊朗。

根据皮尤研究中心周四公布的一项民调显示，约65%的美国人表示他们“不赞成”特朗普处理伊朗战争的方式。特朗普在战争初期曾声称战争只会持续几周，但如今战争已经持续了八个月。

皮尤研究中心的调查显示，大多数美国人现在认为这场战争至少还会持续一年。调查还发现，即使是共和党人或倾向保守派的选民，对这场战争的看法也越来越负面。

这场冲突也严重影响了特朗普的个人支持率，并削弱了共和党的支持率。路透社/益普索周四公布的一项民调显示，只有30%的特朗普支持者对参加中期选举充满热情，而民主党选民的这一比例为48%。

2024年投票给特朗普的人中，约有13%的人表示，他们不确定在国会选举中该投票给谁。

分析人士表示，将攻击推迟到选举之后，可能会保护共和党候选人免受选民的强烈反对。

分析人士表示，特朗普如果在选举中表现出色，就会被视为支持再次打击伊朗；但如果共和党在选举中失利，同样可能会进一步刺激他再次打击伊朗，因为他会认为到那时自己已经没有什么可失去的了。

虽然这可能会进一步影响特朗普的支持率，但无论如何，这位总统都没有资格参加下一届总统选举。

美国会在中期选举后重启战争吗？

最近几周，由于与伊朗的谈判陷入僵局，美国总统威胁要在选举后以武力“结束”战争。

在9月份的共和党大会上，他指责伊朗试图影响中期选举的结果，并表示冲突“将在选举结束后立即结束”。

两周前，他在接受《时代》杂志采访时也表示，伊朗大选后“有可能”加大对伊朗的轰炸力度，但他拒绝详细说明。分析人士认为，他的这番言论旨在安抚选民，同时也警告伊朗，选举后可能会发生侵略行为。

上周，美国军方派遣约7000名水兵和2000名海军陆战队员登上数艘舰艇前往中东，以应对特朗普发出的新一轮袭击威胁。这支舰艇编队包括“西奥多·罗斯福”号航空母舰打击群。

此次部署将该地区美军人数增加到 20,000 人，同时还有数百架飞机和至少三个航母打击群。

过去，美国在中东和加勒比地区的增兵行动往往最终导致军事行动。

6月，华盛顿和伊朗签署了一项停火协议，但由于霍尔木兹海峡的控制权问题，该协议很快破裂。

特朗普多次表示，美国在霍尔木兹海峡占据上风，理由是美国石油出口更多，伊朗经济疲软。他还表示反对与德黑兰就霍尔木兹海峡的管理达成协议，但又说他可能会考虑，因为“他们愿意付出任何代价来阻止我们”。

华盛顿拒绝了伊朗近期提出的重开霍尔木兹海峡的提议，该提议基于伊朗要求美国满足的某些条件，包括解除制裁、解冻伊朗资产以及保证停止袭击。上周，伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇表示，伊朗正在考虑美国提出的反提案。