Democrats believe they have a real chance at flipping four states Trump won by double digits

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For weeks, top Democrats in Washington have watched with cautious restraint as Republicans dumped millions into red states like Kansas and South Carolina to defend an increasingly shaky Senate map.

But Democrats increasingly believe they have a real chance to win seats deep in Trump territory as Republicans face their worst midterm environment in decades and the Senate map abruptly expands.

Democrats are now adding Kansas to a growing list of unlikely targets as they also try to flip Texas, Alaska and Iowa – all four states that Trump won by double digits in 2024. With just 22 days to go, Senate Democrats’ top super PAC surprised some in its own party by investing $5 million in Kansas – a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century.

“The gap is closing in Kansas,” Senate Majority PAC spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement.

The investment marks a stark shift for Democratic campaign officials in Washington, who – until now – have insisted they are clear-eyed about their own realities in this midterm election. With Democrats badly outspent by the GOP, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and his campaign arm have been careful to keep their focus strictly on the core battleground seats that are most likely to flip the Senate, according to nearly a dozen people familiar with internal discussions.

But inside the party, there’s a fierce debate about how far to expand the map when Democrats are already battling for so many expensive toss-up races, with anxiety about how much to spread their limited cash without costing winnable seats.

Privately, Senate Democrats had been planning to keep their limited pool of cash in what they see as must-win races in North Carolina and Georgia — even as the GOP has sharply reduced its spending in both states — as well as holding Michigan and flipping seats in Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Texas.

But now, voters’ anti-Trump backlash is driving Democrats to gamble in even redder seats. In recent days, there’s a growing sense that their party has a real shot in Kansas, in particular, where Republicans are spending almost $10 million on air to defend incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall.

It’s a strategy that would have been once unthinkable for Democrats, who just weeks ago were dismissing the idea that they would seriously spend in Texas – let alone Kansas.

Recent public polling showed a tied race between Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state that Trump won by 16 points two years ago. Democrats’ own internal polling in Kansas, too, showed Hamilton in a true position to compete.

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“Democrats expanded the map deep into GOP territory and created new opportunities to flip seats – putting us in the strongest position yet to win the Senate majority,” Schumer’s campaign arm, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, spokesperson Maeve Coyle said. “Between now and Election Day, we will keep all options on the table and pursue every strategic path to victory as resources allow.”

In Kansas, Methodist megachurch pastor Hamilton has been careful to distance himself from Washington Democrats. Self-described as an “independent-minded Democrat,” Hamilton has previously told CNN he won’t support Schumer for leader. And recently, when one sitting Democratic senator offered to campaign for Hamilton, the candidate’s team turned the senator down, according to one person familiar with the discussions.

Inside the cash-strapped Democratic party, there’s an increasingly fierce debate about how much to expand the Senate map — and how far to push into Trump country as the environment worsens for Republicans. With Kansas now on the map, and optimism abounds, Democrats are privately talking seriously about having a real shot of defeating Republicans in states like South Carolina, Mississippi and Nebraska. Sen. Bernie Sanders is spending some of his own money in Florida.

But there’s also plenty of fear that Democrats’ decision to put money in a red state like Kansas could divert resources from a crucial battleground state like Michigan or Ohio. And among the most anxious Democrats, some are still privately pressing the party to put more money into New Hampshire or even Minnesota, two traditionally blue seats with well-known GOP candidates backed by heavy GOP spending. North Carolina Democrat Roy Cooper has been clear that the national party can’t ignore his race, either.

“People are getting really excited about these expansion states. We have not won Iowa, Ohio, Texas or Alaska yet,” one Democratic operative who works on Senate races said in recent days.

Some in the party, for instance, are privately raising alarms about Minnesota, with progressives like Sanders trying to direct resources there in the final days.

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“I worry there aren’t enough resources being invested in Minnesota …. People take it for granted as a blue state,” one Democratic operative closely tracking the Senate race there said. “You’re trying to put Maine and Texas on the map, but you also gotta play defense too.”

Republicans, too, are sensing an opportunity in the state. They feel good about Republican Michele Tafoya, a well-known former NFL sideline reporter, going up against Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. Top Senate Republicans have told donors that last-minute contributions could go far in Minnesota, according to two people familiar with the conversation – and that they believe the race winnable with more money.

While Democratic officials in Minnesota aren’t publicly sounding the alarm about holding their open Senate seat, party leaders believe they have something of a built-in insurance policy: Sen. Amy Klobuchar is running for governor and will be on the top of the ticket and could help lift other Democrats over the finish line. Still, some in the party point out that Kamala Harris only won the state by 4 points two years ago and it shouldn’t be ignored this fall.

The complicating factor for Democrats is money. While Democratic candidates and groups have raised record sums, Senate Republicans have benefited from even more massive spending from GOP super PACs aligned with President Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Top Democrats have been clear that they simply don’t have enough money to go after every potentially competitive seat.

In the final weeks, top Senate Democrats’ mindset had been to “stay the course” in their current battlefield rather than expanding it at the last minute into places like South Carolina, according to one person granted anonymity to discuss internal conversations.

“This is not the time that we need to do anything differently,” that person said, noting that top Democrats are stressing caution in the final weeks: “There’s going to be some turbulence between now and Election Day.”

Even so, Senate Democrats are not dismissing the chances outright of an upset in these states. Schumer’s campaign arm has encouraged senators to play up the expanding map, including tightening races like Mississippi or South Carolina, and has told senators directly, “We don’t take options off the table,” according to one person familiar with the discussions. And Schumer has personally told donors that Mississippi’s Senate race deserves attention, another person familiar with the discussions told CNN.

But campaign officials have also been clear that they can’t take their attention off the other toss-up races that they need to flip control of the Senate, or even traditionally blue seats that have seen unusual amounts of spending.

“Everything feels really good right now. The question is, can that hold?” another Democratic operative working on congressional races said.

CNN’s David Wright, Manu Raju and Jeff Zeleny contributed

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数周以来，华盛顿的民主党高层一直谨慎地关注着共和党人向堪萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州等红色州投入数百万美元，以捍卫日益摇摇欲坠的参议院选区划分。

但随着共和党面临几十年来最糟糕的中期选举环境，参议院版图突然扩大，民主党人越来越相信他们有真正的机会在特朗普的传统票仓中赢得席位。

民主党人现在又将堪萨斯州列入了他们不断增长的“黑马”名单，他们还试图拿下德克萨斯州、阿拉斯加州和爱荷华州——这四个州在2024年大选中都以两位数的优势获胜。距离大选仅剩22天，参议院民主党最大的超级政治行动委员会出人意料地向堪萨斯州投入了500万美元——这个州近一个世纪以来都没有选出过民主党参议员。

“堪萨斯州的差距正在缩小，”参议院多数党政治行动委员会发言人劳伦·弗伦奇在一份声明中表示。

这项投资标志着华盛顿民主党竞选官员的策略发生了显著转变。此前，他们一直坚称自己对中期选举的现实情况有着清醒的认识。据近十位知情人士透露，由于民主党在竞选经费上远逊于共和党，少数党领袖查克·舒默及其竞选团队一直谨慎地将重点放在最有可能左右参议院控制权的几个核心摇摆选区。

但党内却就民主党人已经在为众多耗资巨大的势均力敌的选战而战的情况下，如何扩大竞选版图展开了激烈的辩论，他们担心如何在不失去原本可以赢得的席位的情况下，将有限的资金投入到竞选活动中。

私下里，参议院民主党人一直计划将有限的资金投入到他们认为必须赢得的北卡罗来纳州和佐治亚州的竞选中——尽管共和党已经大幅削减了在这两个州的支出——同时保住密歇根州，并在缅因州、俄亥俄州、爱荷华州、阿拉斯加州和德克萨斯州翻转席位。

但现在，选民对特朗普的强烈反弹正促使民主党在更倾向共和党的选区孤注一掷。近来，人们越来越觉得民主党在堪萨斯州，尤其是在共和党斥资近1000万美元用于电视广告宣传，力挺现任参议员罗杰·马歇尔的情况下，很有可能赢得该州。

对于民主党人来说，这曾经是不可想象的策略，就在几周前，他们还否认会在德克萨斯州（更不用说堪萨斯州）认真投入资金。

最近的民调显示，在两年前特朗普以16个百分点优势获胜的堪萨斯州，马歇尔和民主党候选人亚当·汉密尔顿的选情胶着。民主党在堪萨斯州的内部民调也显示，汉密尔顿确实有实力与马歇尔一较高下。

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舒默竞选团队——民主党参议员竞选委员会发言人梅芙·科伊尔表示：“民主党人将竞选版图扩展到共和党的传统票仓，创造了新的翻盘机会，使我们比以往任何时候都更有希望赢得参议院多数席位。从现在到选举日，我们将保留所有选项，并在资源允许的情况下，采取一切可能的战略途径赢得胜利。”

在堪萨斯州，卫理公会大型教会牧师汉密尔顿一直小心翼翼地与华盛顿的民主党人保持距离。汉密尔顿自称是“独立思考的民主党人”，他此前曾告诉CNN，他不会支持舒默竞选党魁。据一位知情人士透露，最近，当一位现任民主党参议员提出要为汉密尔顿助选时，汉密尔顿的竞选团队拒绝了这位参议员的提议。

在资金拮据的民主党内部，关于如何扩大参议院选区版图，以及在共和党选情日益恶化的情况下，如何深入特朗普的票仓，正展开着愈演愈烈的辩论。随着堪萨斯州被纳入版图，乐观情绪高涨，民主党人私下里认真讨论着，他们是否真的有机会在南卡罗来纳州、密西西比州和内布拉斯加州等州击败共和党。参议员伯尼·桑德斯甚至在佛罗里达州投入了自己的资金。

但也有很多人担心，民主党将资金投入堪萨斯州这样的红色州，可能会分散对密歇根州或俄亥俄州等关键摇摆州的资源。在最焦虑的民主党人中，一些人仍在私下敦促党内加大对新罕布什尔州甚至明尼苏达州的投入，这两个州传统上都是民主党的票仓，但共和党在这两个州都有知名候选人，并得到了共和党的大量资金支持。北卡罗来纳州民主党人罗伊·库珀也明确表示，全国民主党不能忽视他的选情。

一位参与参议院竞选的民主党人士近日表示：“人们对这些新增席位的州感到非常兴奋。我们还没有赢得爱荷华州、俄亥俄州、德克萨斯州或阿拉斯加州。”

例如，党内一些人私下里对明尼苏达州的情况表示担忧，像桑德斯这样的进步派人士试图在最后几天将资源投入到那里。

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一位密切关注明尼苏达州参议院竞选的民主党人士表示：“我担心对明尼苏达州的投入不足……人们想当然地认为它是民主党的地盘。你们想让缅因州和德克萨斯州在政治版图上占有一席之地，但你们也必须做好防守。”

共和党人也嗅到了该州的机遇。他们对共和党候选人米歇尔·塔福亚（Michele Tafoya）充满信心，这位知名的前NFL场边记者将挑战副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根（Peggy Flanagan）。据两位知情人士透露，参议院共和党高层已告知捐款人，在明尼苏达州，最后一刻的捐款可能发挥巨大作用——他们相信，如果资金充足，这场选举就能获胜。

尽管明尼苏达州的民主党官员并未公开对保住空缺的参议院席位表示担忧，但党内领导人认为他们已经拥有某种程度的保障：参议员艾米·克洛布查尔正在竞选州长，她将成为州长候选人，并有望帮助其他民主党人赢得大选。不过，党内一些人士指出，卡马拉·哈里斯两年前仅以4个百分点的微弱优势赢得了该州，因此今年秋季的选情不容忽视。

对民主党而言，资金是一个棘手的问题。尽管民主党候选人和团体筹集到了创纪录的资金，但参议院共和党人却受益于共和党超级政治行动委员会（与唐纳德·特朗普总统和埃隆·马斯克结盟）更为庞大的支出。民主党高层已明确表示，他们根本没有足够的资金去争取每一个潜在的竞争席位。

据一位获准匿名讨论内部对话的人士透露，在最后几周，参议院民主党高层的想法是“坚持目前的战场”，而不是在最后一刻将战场扩大到南卡罗来纳州等地。

“现在我们不需要做任何改变，”那个人说，并指出民主党高层在最后几周强调要谨慎：“从现在到选举日之间会出现一些动荡。”

即便如此，参议院民主党人也并未完全排除在这些州爆冷获胜的可能性。据一位知情人士透露，舒默的竞选团队鼓励参议员们重视不断扩大的选情版图，包括密西西比州和南卡罗来纳州等竞争激烈的州，并直接告诉参议员们：“我们不会排除任何可能性。”另一位知情人士告诉CNN，舒默本人也曾向捐款人表示，密西西比州的参议院选举值得关注。

但竞选官员也明确表示，他们不能忽视其他势均力敌的竞选，他们需要赢得这些竞选才能扭转参议院的控制权，甚至不能忽视那些传统上支持民主党的席位，这些席位的竞选支出也异常之高。

“现在一切都感觉很好。问题是，这种状态能持续下去吗？”另一位参与国会竞选的民主党人士说道。

CNN的David Wright、Manu Raju和Jeff Zeleny对此文亦有贡献。