When Harapan falls in GE16, what then? — Lara Ling

Rumors are circulating that Malaysia's 16th General Election may occur sooner than anticipated, fueled by political tensions after Ahmad Zahid Hamidi's challenge to the Prime Minister.

Following electoral successes at the state level, the new UMNO-PAS alliance poses a significant threat to the current government, raising concerns about increased racial and religious polarization, press freedom erosion, and threatened minority rights.

The situation draws parallels to the Sheraton Move of 2020, emphasizing the need for robust voter turnout to prevent a potential power shift that may exacerbate divisive rhetoric and restrict freedoms.

OCTOBER 11 — Rumours in political circles and beyond have been rife that Malaysia’s next 16th General Election (GE16) could be pushed forward even sooner than previously anticipated.

Since Umno’s general assembly last month, where Ahmad Zahid Hamidi openly challenged Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to either call for snap polls or kick Barisan Nasional (BN) out of the federal government, the nation’s political landscape has suffered even deeper cracks.

With BN staging a roaring comeback in the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections, alongside predictions that it will also sweep the upcoming Malacca state election, a number of political commentators are expecting their electoral victories at state level to be repeated at the federal level.

Given Umno’s recent successful electoral cooperation with PAS in both elections, the combined strength of both parties threatens to wipe out Pakatan Harapan (PH) in GE16 and install a predominantly Malay-Muslim majority government in Putrajaya.

Such a scenario, of course, would not be unprecedented.

If anyone still remembers the Sheraton Move of 2020 which toppled the democratically elected PH government six years ago, the political alliance that seized power then was dominated by Malay-Muslim parties.

If the latest Umno-PAS alliance now rides the blue-and-green wave to Putrajaya, what exactly would be different this time?

The most glaring differences would be twofold, and both would be impossible to ignore.

First, expect the public sphere in Malaysia to deteriorate further under a BN-PAS federal government.

Toxic racial and religious sentiments are most likely to further intensify and freely proliferate.

Moderate voices would probably be increasingly punished and silenced, with 3R-related laws being abused and liberally weaponised against those who attempt to hold the powers that be accountable, while the actual perpetrators are never held to account.

Freedom of speech would probably be a luxury reserved for the rich and powerful political elite — the untouchables.

Press freedom would likely be repressed and Malaysian society become even more polarised, further divided along racial lines than it already is now.

Sadly, we do not need to look far to be reminded.

The Negeri Sembilan state election was a stark example of how highly divisive rhetoric contributed to the downfall of a state government that had governed competently for eight years.

The spotlight wasn’t on the state government’s achievements, its strong performance or established track record.

Instead, race, religion and identity completely overshadowed everything else.

The weaponisation of penyatuan ummah during the campaign was among the fiercest and most relentless of such rhetoric in recent political history.

While this battle cry of Malay unification is nothing new nor revolutionary, it is the extent to which it was manipulated that was truly disconcerting.

Every single time racial and religious cards are played, all logic and rationale tend to get hurled out the window.

Second, with PAS firmly entrenched in the federal government, the rights, liberties and freedoms of minorities would almost certainly come under increasing threat across various aspects of public life.

PAS’s use of religion and claims of religious superiority to exert stringent controls in states under its administration is more than well-established.

Over the years, PAS has also been vocal in calling for bans and restrictions that would directly encroach upon the liberties and freedoms of non-Malays and non-Muslims.

From alcohol and concerts to gambling, PAS has repeatedly sought restrictions on activities that are predominantly associated with non-Malay and non-Muslim communities, including calls for them to be banned, cancelled, or shut down.

These are but a few examples.

So, what would stop PAS from imposing such rules and restrictions on Malaysians once it joins Umno in the federal government and gains the power it has been so desperately seeking?

Six years ago, in the aftermath of the Sheraton Move that catapulted an unelected government into power, PAS wielded far less political influence and leverage than it does today.

With 43 seats, the 15th General Election saw it win the most seats it had ever won in the nation’s entire electoral history, more than any other political party.

Its previous record was winning 27 seats in 1999, 27 years ago.

Therefore, PAS’s performance in GE15 was truly shocking and unprecedented.

Since GE15, PAS has made further notable inroads in subsequent state elections, winning 10 seats in Selangor and seven in Penang where it had always been relegated to the sidelines.

As expected, these electoral gains and milestones have further emboldened the party to pursue its quest for power even more aggressively than before.

Once the federal government changes hands from PH to BN-PAS, Malaysians would likely face a far grimmer political reality, one that is openly hostile to minorities.

However, we are no strangers to the political playbooks of BN and PAS, and therefore cannot claim to be unaware of the tactics they employ.

The only way to stop this chokehold from tightening around us is for all of us to turn out in full force and stop them at the ballot box.

Giving up has never changed anything.

It is easier to give up, harder to hold on.

Anyone can give up, anyone can walk away.

But those who do may never live to see the fruits of resilience.

It is precisely in the darkest hours, when the future seems bleak and the stakes are at their highest, that our country needs us most.

Will we rise to the occasion again, or will we turn the other way?

* This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail .

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有传言称，由于艾哈迈德·扎希德·哈米迪向首相发起挑战，导致政治紧张局势加剧，马来西亚第16届全国大选可能会比预期更早举行。

在州级选举中取得成功后，巫统-伊斯兰党新联盟对现任政府构成了重大威胁，引发了人们对种族和宗教两极分化加剧、新闻自由受到侵蚀以及少数族裔权利受到威胁的担忧。

这种情况与 2020 年的喜来登搬迁事件有相似之处，凸显了选民积极投票的必要性，以防止可能加剧分裂性言论和限制自由的潜在权力转移。

10 月 11 日——政界内外盛传，马来西亚第 16 届全国大选 (GE16) 可能会比之前预期的更早举行。

自上个月巫统大会以来，阿末扎希哈米迪公开挑战首相拿督斯里安华·易卜拉欣，要求他要么举行闪电选举，要么将国民阵线（国阵）踢出联邦政府，该国的政治格局出现了更深的裂痕。

国阵在柔佛州和森美兰州选举中强势回归，并被预测将在即将到来的马六甲州选举中大获全胜，许多政治评论员预计他们在州级选举中的胜利将在联邦层面重现。

鉴于巫统最近在两次选举中与伊斯兰党成功合作，两党联合起来的力量有可能在第16届全国大选中消灭希望联盟（PH），并在布城建立一个以马来穆斯林为主的多数派政府。

当然，这种情况并非史无前例。

如果有人还记得六年前推翻民选希望联盟政府的 2020 年喜来登政变，那么当时夺取政权的政治联盟是由马来穆斯林政党主导的。

如果巫统-伊斯兰党联盟这次乘着蓝绿浪潮入主布城，那么这次究竟会有什么不同呢？

最明显的差异体现在两个方面，而且这两方面都无法忽视。

首先，预计在国阵-伊斯兰党联合执政的联邦政府领导下，马来西亚的公共领域将进一步恶化。

有害的种族和宗教情绪很可能会进一步加剧并自由蔓延。

温和派的声音可能会受到越来越多的惩罚和压制，与 3R 相关的法律会被滥用，并被随意地用来对付那些试图追究当权者责任的人，而真正的肇事者却永远不会被追究责任。

言论自由很可能成为只有富有的权贵政治精英——也就是“贱民”——才能享有的奢侈品。

新闻自由可能会受到压制，马来西亚社会将变得更加两极分化，种族分裂程度将比现在更加严重。

令人遗憾的是，我们无需远求就能想起这一点。

森美兰州选举就是一个鲜明的例子，它表明了极具分裂性的言论是如何导致一个执政八年且政绩卓著的州政府垮台的。

焦点并没有集中在州政府的成就、强劲表现或既定业绩上。

相反，种族、宗教和身份完全掩盖了其他一切。

在竞选期间，利用“穆斯林民族解放运动”作为武器的言论，是近代政治史上最激烈、最无情的言论之一。

虽然马来人统一的口号并不新鲜，也不具有革命性，但它被操纵的程度却令人不安。

每当有人打种族和宗教牌时，所有的逻辑和理性都会被抛到九霄云外。

其次，随着伊斯兰党在联邦政府中站稳脚跟，少数群体的权利、自由和权利几乎肯定会在公共生活的各个方面受到越来越大的威胁。

伊斯兰党利用宗教和宗教优越论来对其统治下的国家实施严格控制的做法早已是众所周知的事实。

多年来，伊斯兰党也一直积极呼吁实施禁令和限制，这些禁令和限制将直接侵犯非马来人和非穆斯林的自由和权利。

从酒精和音乐会到赌博，伊斯兰党一再要求限制主要与非马来人和非穆斯林社区相关的活动，包括呼吁禁止、取消或关闭这些活动。

以上仅举几例。

那么，一旦伊斯兰党加入巫统，进入联邦政府并获得其梦寐以求的权力，又有什么能阻止它对马来西亚人强加此类规则和限制呢？

六年前，在喜来登政变之后，一个未经选举的政府上台执政，当时伊斯兰党（PAS）的政治影响力和筹码远不如今天。

在第 15 届大选中，该党赢得了 43 个席位，这是该党在全国选举史上赢得的席位最多的一次，超过了其他任何政党。

它之前的最好成绩是27年前的1999年赢得27个席位。

因此，人民党在第15届全国大选中的表现确实令人震惊，前所未有。

自第 15 届全国大选以来，伊斯兰党在随后的州选举中取得了显著进展，在雪兰莪州赢得了 10 个席位，在槟城州赢得了 7 个席位，而此前伊斯兰党在槟城州一直处于边缘地位。

不出所料，这些选举胜利和里程碑事件进一步鼓舞了该党，使其比以往更加积极地追求权力。

一旦联邦政府从希望联盟（PH）换成国阵-伊斯兰党（BN-PAS），马来西亚人可能会面临更加严峻的政治现实，一个对少数族裔公开敌视的政治现实。

然而，我们对国阵和伊斯兰党的政治伎俩并不陌生，因此不能声称不了解他们所采取的策略。

阻止这种扼住我们咽喉的办法只有我们所有人全力以赴，在投票箱前阻止他们。

放弃从来改变不了任何事情。

放弃容易，坚持难。

任何人都可以放弃，任何人都可以离开。

但那些坚持不懈的人可能永远无法看到韧性带来的成果。

正是在最黑暗的时刻，当未来似乎黯淡无光，风险最高的时​​候，我们的国家才最需要我们。

我们会再次挺身而出，还是会选择视而不见？

* 这是作者或刊物的个人观点，并不一定代表《马来邮报》的观点。

巫统和伊斯兰党为何无法合作：十大政治现实——法金明

当虐待没有结束时——Syarifah Maisarah Syed Alwi

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