Is Malaysia’s fiscal health on the mend? BMI says yes in post-Budget forecast

BMI has maintained its projection for Malaysia's fiscal deficit to narrow to 3.4% of GDP in 2027 from 3.6% in 2026, with revenue growth driven by a favorable economic backdrop and higher oil prices.

The government's revenue target for 2027 is RM380.8 billion, supported by increased sales and service tax collections and anticipated higher dividends from Petronas.

Operating expenditures remain significant due to increased subsidies and social assistance, although development spending is expected to decline.

The projection aligns with the government's gradual fiscal consolidation strategy, targeting a 3.3% GDP deficit by 2027.

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 13 — BMI has maintained its forecast for Malaysia’s fiscal deficit to narrow to 3.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2027 from an estimated 3.6 per cent in 2026.

The Fitch Solutions unit said it expects the government to attain its 2027 revenue target of RM380.8 billion, a 4.7 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) increase from the upward revised 2026 target of RM363.3 billion.

“We anticipate that revenue collections will benefit from a favourable growth backdrop.

“The Ministry of Finance had revised higher its 2026 growth projections to 4.8-5.3 per cent (BMI: 5.1 per cent) from 4.0-5.0 per cent previously. It expects growth to moderate to 4.2-5.2 per cent in 2027 (BMI: 4.5 per cent),” BMI said in a statement.

It further said resilient economic activity should support sales and service tax collections, which have risen from around 7.5 per cent of total revenue in 2009 to 18.0 per cent by the first half (H1) 2026.

Meanwhile, higher oil prices are expected to boost Malaysia’s petroleum-related revenue, supported by its position as a net energy exporter.

The government expects dividends from Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) to increase to RM32 billion in 2027 from an estimated RM27 billion in 2026.

“While this suggests that petroleum-related revenue will probably inch higher from 2.5 per cent of GDP in 2026 to 2.6 per cent in 2027, the broader downtrend in Malaysia’s reliance on petroleum-related income remains intact,” it said.

Operating expenditure is expected to remain high, accounting for 82 per cent of total expenditure, driven by higher subsidies and social assistance, including RM16 billion in cash assistance for low-income households and a rise in the minimum wage to RM2,000 from RM1,700.

The allocation for subsidies and social assistance was raised to RM74.5 billion, or 3.2 per cent of GDP, from the original RM49 billion, amid higher energy costs.

Although spending is expected to ease to RM72.7 billion in 2027, prolonged US-Iran conflict could increase subsidy spending further.

Meanwhile, the development expenditure is set to fall for the third consecutive year to RM83 billion in 2027 (3.6 per cent of GDP), below the RM86 billion annual average implied by the government’s RM430 billion commitment through 2030.

BMI said lower development spending could weigh on Malaysia’s longer-term productivity and innovation goals, while severe El Niño conditions could prompt additional subsidies for the agricultural sector.

On Oct 9, Prime Minister and Finance Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim tabled Budget 2027, which totals RM459.8 billion in expenditure – a 3.6 per cent y-o-y increase from Budget 2026.

The government has targeted a deficit of 3.3 per cent of GDP in 2027, marking a gradual pace of consolidation from the revised 2026 target of 3.6 per cent and 3.5 per cent previously, it added. — Bernama

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BMI 维持其对马来西亚财政赤字占 GDP 比重从 2026 年的 3.6% 收窄至 2027 年的 3.4% 的预测，收入增长将受到有利的经济环境和油价上涨的推动。

政府2027年的收入目标为3808亿令吉，这主要得益于销售和服务税收入的增加以及预计马来西亚国家石油公司（Petronas）更高的股息。

尽管发展支出预计将会下降，但由于补贴和社会援助增加，运营支出仍然很高。

该预测与政府逐步整顿财政的战略相一致，目标是到 2027 年将 GDP 赤字控制在 3.3%。

吉隆坡，10 月 13 日——BMI 维持其预测，预计马来西亚的财政赤字将从 2026 年预计的 3.6% 收窄至 2027 年国内生产总值 (GDP) 的 3.4%。

惠誉解决方案部门表示，预计政府将实现 2027 年 3808 亿令吉的收入目标，比上调后的 2026 年目标 3633 亿令吉同比增长 4.7%。

“我们预计，在良好的增长环境下，收入将有所增长。”

BMI在一份声明中表示：“财政部已将2026年的经济增长预期从之前的4.0%-5.0%上调至4.8%-5.3%（BMI：5.1%）。预计2027年经济增长将放缓至4.2%-5.2%（BMI：4.5%）。”

报告还指出，稳健的经济活动应能支持销售和服务税的征收，该税额已从 2009 年占总收入的约 7.5% 上升至 2026 年上半年的 18.0%。

与此同时，由于马来西亚是能源净出口国，油价上涨预计将提振马来西亚的石油相关收入。

政府预计，马来西亚国家石油公司（Petronas）的股息将从2026年的约270亿令吉增至2027年的320亿令吉。

报告称：“虽然这表明石油相关收入可能会从 2026 年占 GDP 的 2.5% 小幅上升到 2027 年的 2.6%，但马来西亚对石油相关收入的依赖程度总体下降趋势依然保持不变。”

预计运营支出将保持高位，占总支出的 82%，主要原因是补贴和社会援助增加，包括向低收入家庭提供 160 亿令吉现金援助，以及将最低工资从 1700 令吉提高到 2000 令吉。

由于能源成本上涨，补贴和社会援助的拨款从最初的 490 亿令吉增加到 745 亿令吉，占国内生产总值的 3.2%。

尽管预计到 2027 年支出将放缓至 727 亿令吉，但美伊冲突的持续可能会进一步增加补贴支出。

与此同时，发展支出预计将连续第三年下降，到 2027 年降至 830 亿令吉（占国内生产总值的 3.6%），低于政府承诺到 2030 年投入 4300 亿令吉所隐含的 860 亿令吉的年均水平。

BMI表示，发展支出减少可能会对马来西亚的长期生产力和创新目标造成压力，而严重的厄尔尼诺现象可能会促使政府对农业部门提供额外补贴。

10月9日，首相兼财政部长拿督斯里安华·易卜拉欣提交了2027年财政预算案，总支出为4598亿令吉，比2026年财政预算案同比增长3.6%。

政府已将2027年的财政赤字目标设定为国内生产总值(GDP)的3.3%，这标志着财政整顿步伐较此前修订后的2026年目标3.6%和3.5%有所放缓。——马新社

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