IMF raises S. Korea's growth forecast to 3.3 pct amid chip supercycle

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SEOUL, Oct. 13 (Yonhap) -- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised its growth forecast for South Korea in 2026 to 3.3 percent, citing strong semiconductor exports that more than offset the fallout from the Middle East war.

The Washington-based organization released the assessment in the World Economic Outlook report, raising its forecast by 0.7 percentage point from its July projection. The revised figure exceeded its global growth forecast of 3.1 percent.

The report was released to coincide with the 2026 Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group, which began Monday in Bangkok and will run through Sunday.

The IMF projected South Korea's economy will grow 2.8 percent in 2027, up 0.3 percentage point from its previous forecast.

The organization identified South Korea and Taiwan as key trading partners in the artificial intelligence (AI) hardware industry, noting developments in the two economies could have spillover effects on raw material exporters and manufacturing hubs.

This file photo taken Oct. 1, 2026, shows containers stacked at a port in the southeastern city of Busan. (Yonhap)

On the global economy, the IMF said downside risks, including tensions in the Middle East and trade fragmentation, persist but have eased since July.

It cited commodity price volatility, inflationary pressures, a reassessment of expected productivity gains from AI and a possible resurgence in trade tensions as downside risks.

A prolonged AI technology upcycle and a restructuring of energy supply chains, however, could provide upward momentum, the IMF added.

The Ministry of Finance and Economy said the latest forecast reflects South Korea's robust exports of AI hardware and chips, noting the upward revision of 0.7 percentage point exceeded the 0.4 percentage-point increase for the group of 41 advanced economies, whose growth forecast stood at 2.1 percent for 2026.

The ministry, however, noted uncertainties persist, including the prolonged Middle East war and higher consumer prices weighing on households.

The government will work to address economic disparities and improve people's livelihoods to bolster the economy's growth potential, the ministry added.

Earlier this month, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) projected South Korea's economy will expand 3.3 percent this year, raising its previous forecast from 3.1 percent.

Last month, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) also marked up its 2026 growth forecast for South Korea to 3.7 percent from 2.6 percent, also citing the country's robust exports.

In September, South Korea's exports soared 83.5 percent from a year earlier to a record US$120.9 billion, driven by a surge in chip shipments.

Semiconductor exports exceeded $60 billion for the first time last month, boosting overall outbound shipments.

This composite image shows the International Monetary Fund logo and an arrow indicating growth. (Yonhap)

colin@yna.co.kr (END)

IMF raises S. Korea's growth forecast to 3.3 pct amid chip supercycle

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首尔，10 月 13 日（韩联社）——国际货币基金组织（IMF）周二将韩国 2026 年的经济增长预期上调至 3.3%，理由是强劲的半导体出口足以抵消中东战争带来的影响。

这家总部位于华盛顿的机构在《世界经济展望》报告中发布了这一评估结果，将其预测值比7月份的预测值上调了0.7个百分点。修正后的数字超过了其此前3.1%的全球增长预测。

该报告的发布恰逢国际货币基金组织和世界银行集团 2026 年年会召开，年会于周一在曼谷开幕，并将持续到周日。

国际货币基金组织预测，韩国经济在 2027 年将增长 2.8%，比之前的预测值上调 0.3 个百分点。

该组织将韩国和台湾列为人工智能（AI）硬件行业的关键贸易伙伴，并指出这两个经济体的发展可能会对原材料出口国和制造中心产生溢出效应。

这张摄于2026年10月1日的资料照片显示，韩国东南部城市釜山港口堆放着集装箱。（韩联社）

国际货币基金组织表示，全球经济方面，包括中东紧张局势和贸易碎片化在内的下行风险依然存在，但自7月以来有所缓解。

报告指出，大宗商品价格波动、通胀压力、对人工智能预期生产力提升的重新评估以及贸易紧张局势可能再次抬头都是下行风险。

国际货币基金组织补充说，人工智能技术的长期上行周期和能源供应链的重组可能会提供上行动力。

韩国财政经济部表示，最新预测反映了韩国人工智能硬件和芯片出口的强劲势头，并指出韩国的预测值上调了0.7个百分点，超过了41个发达经济体集团0.4个百分点的增幅，后者对2026年的增长预测为2.1%。

然而，该部指出，不确定因素依然存在，包括旷日持久的中东战争和不断上涨的消费价格给家庭带来的压力。

该部补充说，政府将努力解决经济差距问题，改善人民生活，以增强经济增长潜力。

本月初，东盟与中日韩宏观经济研究办公室（AMRO）预测，韩国经济今年将增长3.3%，高于此前预测的3.1%。

上个月，经济合作与发展组织（OECD）也将韩国2026年的经济增长预期从2.6%上调至3.7%，理由是该国出口强劲。

9月份，受芯片出货量激增的推动，韩国出口额同比增长83.5%，达到创纪录的1209亿美元。

上个月半导体出口额首次​​突破 600 亿美元，提振了整体出口额。

这张合成图像显示了国际货币基金组织的标志和一个代表增长的箭头。（韩联社）

colin@yna.co.kr (完)

国际货币基金组织将韩国经济增长预期上调至3.3%，正值芯片行业超级周期之际。