AI supply chain exposure splits Q3 outlook for Samsung, LG parts units

LG Innotek’s third-quarter earnings outlook weakened amid foreign-exchange pressure and uncertainty over iPhone 18 component demand. Samsung Electro-Mechanics’ outlook improved as MLCCs and semiconductor substrates offset currency-related pressure. Brokerages cut LG Innotek’s operating-profit consensus to 202.9 billion won while raising Samsung Electro-Mechanics’ estimate to 642.3 billion won. Samsung Electro-Mechanics’ AI-server MLCC contracts totaled 3.9 trillion won.

LG Innotek’s third-quarter revenue consensus fell to 6.1 trillion won from 6.32 trillion won a month earlier.

LG Innotek’s optical solutions business accounts for more than 80 percent of total revenue, leaving the company heavily dependent on major device makers including Apple.

Samsung Electro-Mechanics’ second-quarter sales mix comprised approximately 47 percent electronic components, 22 percent semiconductor substrates and 30 percent optical communication solutions.

Samsung Electro-Mechanics secured its sixth long-term MLCC agreement of the year, bringing announced order value to 3.9 trillion won, more than one-third of its total revenue from the previous year.

MLCCs temporarily store electricity and supply it steadily to semiconductors, with demand rising as AI servers require more power.

Published Oct 13, 2026 11:52 am KST

Apple iPhone 18 Pros stand on display at the Apple store on Fifth Avenue in New York, Sept. 18. AP-Yonhap

Exposure to the artificial intelligence (AI) supply chain is splitting the third-quarter earnings outlooks for LG Innotek and Samsung Electro-Mechanics.

The former faces weaker earnings prospects because of its optics-heavy sales mix and sensitivity to foreign exchange fluctuations, while the latter is offsetting currency-related pressure with a growing contribution from multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) and semiconductor substrates.

According to market tracker FnGuide on Tuesday, brokerages’ consensus estimate for LG Innotek’s third-quarter operating profit stood at 202.9 billion won ($152 million), down 32.8 percent from 302 billion won a month earlier. The revenue forecast was also lowered to 6.1 trillion won from 6.32 trillion won over the same period.

The worsening earnings outlook weighed on LG Innotek shares, which plunged 15.47 percent on Monday.

The biggest factor appears to be foreign exchange fluctuations, as raw materials and inventories purchased or produced when the won was weaker are being reflected in sales at a stronger won, hurting profit margins.

“The sharp decline in the exchange rate was the main factor, as products manufactured using raw materials purchased during the second quarter were shipped in the third quarter, when the exchange rate fell sharply,” Kiwoom Securities analyst Kwon Min-kyu said.

“The company's high exposure to foreign exchange fluctuations as an exporter and the large share of raw materials in its cost structure amplified the impact.”

Kwon forecast LG Innotek's third-quarter operating profit at 91.7 billion won, down 55 percent year-on-year.

LG Innotek operates optical solutions, semiconductor substrate and automotive components businesses, but optical solutions still account for more than 80 percent of its total revenue. This leaves the company heavily dependent on major device makers, including Apple.

The iPhone 18 Pro series features higher-resolution cameras and variable apertures, which were expected to boost the average selling price of LG Innotek's optical modules, but concerns remain that sales of the new series could fall short of those of the iPhone 17 lineup. On Friday, Nikkei reported that Apple had asked some of its suppliers to cut production of components for the iPhone 18 series, as rising chip costs forced price increases that dampened consumer demand.

Samsung Electro-Mechanics' multilayer ceramic capacitors / Courtesy of Samsung Electro-Mechanics

In contrast, the consensus estimate for Samsung Electro-Mechanics' third-quarter operating profit rose 6.2 percent to 642.3 billion won from 605 billion won a month earlier.

Samsung Electro-Mechanics also operates businesses spanning optical solutions, electronic components including MLCCs and package solutions including semiconductor substrates. However, its revenue is more evenly distributed across these businesses, with electronic components accounting for approximately 47 percent of sales in the second quarter, semiconductor substrates 22 percent and optical communication solutions 30 percent.

This diversified sales mix appears to have limited the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations, despite the company facing the same currency environment as LG Innotek.

“Despite the unfavorable foreign exchange environment, the company is expected to beat the market consensus,” DS Securities analyst Cho Dae-hyung said. “A growing share of high-value products and price increases in both the component and package solution businesses are expected to boost earnings beyond market expectations, even amid a sharp decline in the won-dollar exchange rate.”

The expansion of long-term supply contracts is further improving the outlook. Samsung Electro-Mechanics has secured its sixth long-term agreement for MLCCs this year alone, bringing the total value of orders to 3.9 trillion won, which accounts for more than one-third of the company’s total revenue last year.

MLCCs are components that temporarily store electricity and supply it steadily to semiconductors when needed. Demand for MLCCs is surging as AI servers require increasing amounts of power.

受外汇压力和iPhone 18零部件需求不确定性的影响，LG Innotek第三季度盈利预期走弱。三星电机（SEM）的盈利预期则有所改善，MLCC和半导体基板业务抵消了汇率波动带来的压力。券商将LG Innotek的营业利润预期下调至2029亿韩元，同时将三星电机的营业利润预期上调至6423亿韩元。三星电机的AI服务器MLCC合同总额达3.9万亿韩元。

LG Innotek 第三季度营收预期从一个月前的 6.32 万亿韩元下调至 6.1 万亿韩元。

LG Innotek 的光学解决方案业务占总收入的 80% 以上，这使得该公司严重依赖包括苹果在内的主要设备制造商。

三星电机第二季度的销售构成中，电子元件约占 47%，半导体基板约占 22%，光通信解决方案约占 30%。

三星电机公司获得了今年第六份长期MLCC协议，使已公布的订单价值达到3.9万亿韩元，超过其上一年总收入的三分之一。

MLCC 可暂时存储电力并稳定地向半导体供电，随着 AI 服务器需要更多电力，MLCC 的需求也在不断增长。

发布于2026年10月13日上午11:52（韩国标准时间）

9月18日，苹果iPhone 18 Pro在纽约第五大道苹果专卖店展出。美联社-韩联社

人工智能（AI）供应链的影响导致 LG Innotek 和三星电机第三季度的盈利预期出现分歧。

前者由于销售组合中光学产品占比过高且对汇率波动较为敏感，因此盈利前景较为疲弱；而后者则凭借多层陶瓷电容器 (MLCC) 和半导体基板日益增长的贡献，抵消了汇率相关的压力。

据市场追踪机构FnGuide周二发布的数据显示，券商对LG Innotek第三季度营业利润的普遍预期为2029亿韩元（约合1.52亿美元），较上月预测的3020亿韩元下降32.8%。同期营收预期也从6.32万亿韩元下调至6.1万亿韩元。

盈利前景恶化令 LG Innotek 股价承压，周一暴跌 15.47%。

最大的因素似乎是外汇波动，因为在韩元疲软时购买或生产的原材料和库存，在韩元走强时反映在销售中，损害了利润率。

Kiwoom证券分析师权敏奎表示：“汇率大幅下跌是主要因素，因为使用第二季度购买的原材料生产的产品是在第三季度发货的，而当时汇率大幅下跌。”

“作为一家出口企业，该公司极易受到外汇波动的影响，而且原材料在其成本结构中占比很高，这些都加剧了这种影响。”

Kwon预测LG Innotek第三季度营业利润为917亿韩元，同比下降55%。

LG Innotek 的业务涵盖光学解决方案、半导体基板和汽车零部件，但光学解决方案仍占其总收入的 80% 以上。这使得该公司严重依赖包括苹果在内的主要设备制造商。

iPhone 18 Pro 系列配备了更高分辨率的摄像头和可变光圈，这原本预计会提升 LG Innotek 光学模块的平均售价，但人们仍然担心新系列的销量可能不及 iPhone 17 系列。周五，《日经新闻》报道称，由于芯片成本上涨导致价格上涨，抑制了消费者需求，苹果已要求部分供应商削减 iPhone 18 系列的零部件产量。

三星电机的多层陶瓷电容器 / 图片由三星电机提供

相比之下，市场普遍预期三星电机第三季度营业利润将从一个月前的 6050 亿韩元增长 6.2% 至 6423 亿韩元。

三星电机还经营光学解决方案、包括MLCC在内的电子元件以及包括半导体基板在内的封装解决方案等业务。然而，其收入在这些业务之间的分布更为均衡，第二季度电子元件约占销售额的47%，半导体基板约占22%，光通信解决方案约占30%。

尽管该公司与 LG Innotek 面临相同的货币环境，但这种多元化的销售组合似乎限制了外汇波动的影响。

DS证券分析师赵大亨表示：“尽管外汇环境不利，但该公司有望超越市场普遍预期。高价值产品份额的增长以及零部件和封装解决方案业务的价格上涨，预计将推动其盈利超出市场预期，即便韩元兑美元汇率大幅下跌。”

长期供应合同的扩大进一步改善了前景。三星电机今年已签署第六份MLCC长期供应合同，订单总额达3.9万亿韩元，占该公司去年总收入的三分之一以上。

MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）是一种能够临时存储电能并在需要时稳定地向半导体供电的元件。随着人工智能服务器对电力需求的不断增长，对MLCC的需求也随之激增。