Middle East and Central Asia’s economy to shrink in 2026 amid war, IMF says

Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar face double-digit declines in GDP amid the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran.

The MENA region's GDP is forecast to contract by 0.3 percent in 2026, a sharp downgrade from the 1.9 percent expansion projected in April, the IMF says [File: Sakchai Lalit/AP Photo]

The economy of the Middle East and Central Asia is set to shrink in 2026 amid the fallout of the US-Israel war on Iran, with countries such as Kuwait and Qatar facing double-digit contractions, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The region’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to contract by 0.3 percent this year, a sharp downgrade from the 1.9 percent expansion projected in April, the IMF said in its latest economic outlook on Tuesday.

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The IMF cited the prolonged disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for one-fifth of global oil supplies in peacetime, for the downgraded outlook.

Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar are forecast to have the most severe economic contractions, with their GDPs expected to shrink by 16.7 percent, 16 percent and 15.6 percent, respectively.

Bahrain’s GDP is forecast to contract by 11.3 percent, while Iran’s economy is projected to shrink by 7.6 percent.

Saudi Arabia, which has partially offset the hit to its energy sector by boosting oil exports through the East-West pipeline, is projected to record negative growth of 3.3 percent.

Kyrgyzstan is expected to have the strongest growth in the region, with GDP forecast to expand 9 percent.

The Middle East and Central Asia is the only region that is expected to experience negative growth in 2026.

Emerging and developing Asia’s GDP is forecast to grow 5.1 percent, while the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean are projected to expand 4.5 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively.

The United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, are forecast to register growth of 2.3 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, while the eurozone’s GDP is estimated to grow 1.1 percent.

The IMF said it expected global GDP to grow 3.1 percent, up from 3 percent in its previous outlook.

The Washington, DC-based institution said while economic activity had proved resilient this year, the global economy faced multiple risks.

“Further escalation in conflicts, a reassessment of expectations surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), renewed trade tensions, and fiscal vulnerabilities could weaken growth,” it said.

“On the upside, stronger momentum in AI investment and productivity gains from AI or a sustained easing of geopolitical and trade tensions could strengthen growth.”

受美以对伊朗战争的影响，伊拉克、巴林、科威特和卡塔尔的GDP均面临两位数的下滑。

国际货币基金组织表示，预计中东和北非地区2026年的GDP将萎缩0.3%，较4月份预测的1.9%的增长大幅下调。[图片：Sakchai Lalit/AP Photo]

国际货币基金组织（IMF）表示，受美国和以色列对伊朗战争的影响，中东和中亚经济将在2026年萎缩，科威特和卡塔尔等国将面临两位数的经济萎缩。

国际货币基金组织周二在其最新经济展望中表示，预计该地区今年的国内生产总值（GDP）将萎缩0.3%，较4月份预测的1.9%的增长大幅下调。

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国际货币基金组织将霍尔木兹海峡航运长期中断列为下调前景的原因，该海峡是和平时期全球五分之一石油供应的通道。

据预测，科威特、伊拉克和卡塔尔的经济萎缩最为严重，其国内生产总值预计将分别萎缩 16.7%、16% 和 15.6%。

预计巴林国内生产总值将萎缩 11.3%，而伊朗经济预计将萎缩 7.6%。

沙特阿拉伯通过东西输油管道增加石油出口，部分抵消了能源行业受到的冲击，预计该国经济将出现 3.3% 的负增长。

预计吉尔吉斯斯坦将成为该地区增长最强劲的国家，GDP预计将增长9%。

预计2026年中东和中亚地区将出现负增长。

预计亚洲新兴和发展中经济体的GDP将增长5.1%，而撒哈拉以南非洲和拉丁美洲及加勒比地区的经济体预计将分别增长4.5%和2.3%。

世界两大经济体美国和中国预计分别增长2.3%和4.5%，而欧元区GDP预计增长1.1%。

国际货币基金组织表示，预计全球GDP将增长3.1%，高于此前预测的3%。

这家总部位于华盛顿特区的机构表示，虽然今年的经济活动展现出了韧性，但全球经济仍面临多重风险。

报告称：“冲突进一步升级、对人工智能（AI）预期重新评估、贸易紧张局势再度加剧以及财政脆弱性可能会削弱经济增长。”

“从积极的方面来看，人工智能投资势头强劲、人工智能带来的生产力提升，或者地缘政治和贸易紧张局势的持续缓解，都可能促进经济增长。”