Why billions spent on defense haven’t shielded Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacks

Saudi Press Agency/APAImages/Shutterstock

Saudi Arabia spends tens of billions of dollars on defense every year, but is struggling to protect key assets such as airports, refineries and pipelines from missiles and drones fired by Houthi militants from Yemen.

Despite acquiring state-of-the-art weapons systems from the United States and Europe and possessing multi-layered air defenses, the kingdom has seen deadly attacks on the main airport serving the capital, Riyadh, over the past week.

Saudi Arabia spent $83 billion on defense last year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, putting it firmly among the top ten military spenders worldwide. It has acquired US fighter jets as well as Patriot and THAAD air defense systems, and a range of advanced weaponry from France and the United Kingdom.

But the Saudis have a lot to defend: a country roughly one-fifth the size of the US, with threats on three sides .

From the east, Iran fired about 1,000 missiles and drones at Saudi targets during the most intense part of the conflict this year. From the north, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have sent drones to attack the country’s critical East-West oil pipeline. And from the south, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels fire missiles at the kingdom from shelters and mobile launchers in the mountains of Yemen.

Defending Saudi Arabia means protecting a vast network of targets, not just Riyadh or a single refinery. Its defenses must detect incoming threats, decide which to intercept and warn civilians, all within moments, according to Vision2030.ai , an independent website analyzing the kingdom’s economic transformation.

The Saudis are intercepting many of the missiles and drones fired by the Houthis. But some get through. The defense ministry faces difficult choices in distributing the existing systems with so many installations vulnerable to attack, according to a Saudi source.

The Houthis have learned to combine ballistic and cruise missiles with long-range drones to overwhelm Saudi defenses. The approach resembles Russia’s playbook: Moscow has frequently used a mass of drones along with cruise and ballistic missiles in barrages against Ukraine.

Cruise missiles fly at lower altitudes, making them harder to identify and track. The Houthis have also introduced a new generation of ballistic missiles that they claim are maneuverable.

No single air defense system can guarantee that every incoming threat will be intercepted.

But the Houthis have not done this alone.

Eight years ago , UN experts “identified missile remnants, related military equipment and military unmanned aerial vehicles that are of Iranian origin and were introduced into Yemen” despite an international arms embargo.

Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images

That same panel said two years ago that “the scale, nature and extent of transfers of diverse military material and technology provided to the Houthis from external sources, including financial support and training of its combatants, is unprecedented.”

Experts note that the latest Houthi missiles, such as the Hatem-2 and the Palestine-2, are very similar in design to Iranian weapons. They are fast and accurate.

Last year, a Houthi missile evaded Israel’s vaunted air defenses and impacted near Ben Gurion airport. Analyst Amir Bar Shalom told CNN at the time : “They were very accurate, and to be very accurate if you’re launching from 2,000 kilometers, it’s impressive.”

The Houthis have also modified Iranian air defense weapons to strike aircraft and cruise missiles, according to Brigadier General Majed al-Nazili, spokesperson for the Yemeni government forces.

“These missiles move around for a period of up to 25 minutes per missile and operate using a thermal-tracking system,” he said last month.

The Houthis have long been part of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance.’ While other allied groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and militias in Iraq have been significantly degraded, the Houthis have gone from strength to strength.

They continue to have a strong relationship with Tehran and sent a delegation to the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. But they also have their own agenda.

Seven years of conflict with Saudi Arabia between 2015 and 2022 caused immense suffering in Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen, and an economic and transport embargo has continued since.

Ultimately, that led the Houthis in July to declare they would attack Saudi shipping in the Red Sea – and the campaign of missile strikes began soon afterwards, initially targeting an Aramco oil refinery on the Red Sea coast and Saudi airbases.

European Union/Copernicus Sentinel-3/Reuters

The Houthis are demanding an end to Saudi airstrikes in support of government forces in Yemen, as well as billions of dollars in compensation from Saudi Arabia.

Whether in good faith or not, Iran has offered to mediate between Riyadh and the Houthis. On Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran was ready to provide “any assistance necessary to facilitate the start of talks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen,” meaning the Houthis.

Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthis’ political bureau, claimed Monday that Riyadh had accepted mediation but the group had rejected truce proposals of two weeks and of one month.

“The battle this time is not like its predecessors; the arena is no longer the same arena,” al-Bukhaiti said. “Every day that passes in this battle will expand its scope and deepen its losses, and the settlement that is possible today may become difficult or impossible tomorrow.”

Saudi Arabia has tried to project an image of “business as usual” even as the conflict with the Houthis intensified. Its civil defense authority stopped issuing public alerts by phone of incoming missiles and drones last week – before the series of deadly strikes on Riyadh airport.

Alerts have since resumed, according to several residents of Riyadh who spoke with CNN. Saudi authorities say three ballistic missiles were intercepted on Monday.

An expatriate resident of Riyadh told CNN their children were being schooled at home this week. The resident was upset on Saturday by the lack of automatic alerts for incoming missiles in the preceding days but said phone alerts were working effectively by Monday. They also expressed frustration at the Saudi authorities’ silence over the weekend about the strikes on Riyadh airport.

CNN has asked the Saudi authorities for a response on the absence of alerts.

Going forward, the kingdom faces tough choices . Accommodation with the Houthis after more than a dozen civilians were killed in the airport attacks would be unpalatable.

Saudi Media Ministry/AP

Escalation, through even more intense airstrikes, would bring the risk of further missile attacks that would undermine the goal of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to make Saudi Arabia a world-class destination for investment, technology and tourism.

The stakes extend beyond the oil industry. Data centers, desalination plants and airports underpin the kingdom’s technology ambitions, water supply and tourism economy. The crown prince’s marquee investment event in Riyadh later this month will put his pitch to international investors in the spotlight.

But major corporations shied away this week from the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh.

Defeating the Houthi rebels through a ground offensive involving Yemeni government forces seems highly unlikely. The Houthis are entrenched, battle-hardened and know the mountainous terrain. They have inflicted heavy losses on government forces in the last month.

Last year, the US spent more than $1 billion on a seven-week campaign of air-strikes against the Houthis. The Houthis eventually agreed not to attack US shipping in the Red Sea but remained very much in place – and in the meantime shot down a number of highly advanced US Reaper drones .

Neither US nor Israeli strikes eliminated members of the Houthi leadership, even if commanders and technocrats were killed.

If anything, the Houthis, who may have as many as 350,000 men under arms, are on the front foot. They have now encircled the government-held city of Taiz, Yemen’s third largest and a vital logistical hub, the Institute for the Study of War said on Monday.

Saudi Press Agency/Reuters

The Saudis are seeking to mobilize an international coalition against the Houthis. Regional allies have offered help in the way of defensive systems. Pakistan has sent thousands of troops to help defend the kingdom. Egypt has offered whatever support is asked for.

The Saudis may also be able to procure more air defense systems from Europe and the US, after running down shipments delivered at the start of the conflict with Iran.

But the US itself is short of such systems. A report by the US Defense Department’s Inspector-General said the campaign against Iran had “resulted in strategic inventory shortfalls and revealed industrial base bottlenecks for munitions resupply.”

And with mid-term elections three weeks away, US President Donald Trump is wary of yet another entanglement in the Middle East. He has been non-committal about direct US strikes against the Houthis, while not ruling them out.

“US reluctance to get involved stokes the perception that the United States has abandoned a partner at its moment of greatest need,” according to Michael Ratney at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Writing before the airport strikes, Ratney – a former US ambassador in Riyadh – added: “The kingdom is under attack, and as a political matter, it has to retaliate. But ultimately, we should expect a return to diplomacy – imperfect, unsatisfying diplomacy that nonetheless deescalates the conflict.”

That may leave the Houthis in place, and in a stronger position inside Yemen.

CNN’s Nic Robertson contributed to this article.

沙特通讯社/APA图片/Shutterstock

沙特阿拉伯每年在国防上花费数百亿美元，但却难以保护机场、炼油厂和管道等关键资产免受也门胡塞武装分子发射的导弹和无人机的袭击。

尽管沙特阿拉伯从美国和欧洲获得了最先进的武器系统，并拥有多层防空系统，但在过去一周里，首都利雅得的主要机场还是遭受了致命袭击。

根据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所的数据，沙特阿拉伯去年的国防开支高达830亿美元，稳居全球十大军费开支国之列。该国采购了美国战斗机、爱国者导弹和萨德防空系统，以及来自法国和英国的一系列先进武器装备。

但沙特阿拉伯有很多东西需要捍卫：一个面积大约只有美国五分之一的国家，而且面临三面夹击的威胁。

今年冲突最激烈的时期，伊朗从东部向沙特阿拉伯目标发射了约1000枚导弹和无人机。从北部，伊朗支持的伊拉克民兵组织派出无人机袭击了该国至关重要的东西输油管道。从南部，伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装从山区的掩体和移动发射车向沙特阿拉伯王国发射导弹。

保卫沙特阿拉伯意味着保护一个庞大的目标网络，而不仅仅是利雅得或某个炼油厂。据分析沙特经济转型情况的独立网站Vision2030.ai称，其防御系统必须在瞬间探测到来袭威胁，决定拦截哪些威胁，并向平民发出警告。

沙特阿拉伯拦截了胡塞武装发射的大部分导弹和无人机，但仍有一些漏网之鱼。据一位沙特消息人士透露，由于许多设施都容易受到攻击，国防部在分配现有系统方面面临着艰难的选择。

胡塞武装已经学会将弹道导弹、巡航导弹与远程无人机结合使用，以突破沙特的防御。这种策略与俄罗斯的惯用伎俩如出一辙：莫斯科经常在对乌克兰的袭击中，同时使用大量无人机和巡航导弹、弹道导弹进行轮番轰炸。

巡航导弹飞行高度较低，因此更难识别和追踪。胡塞武装还推出了新一代弹道导弹，他们声称这些导弹具有机动性。

没有任何一种防空系统能够保证拦截所有来袭威胁。

但胡塞武装并非独自完成这一切。

八年前，联合国专家“在也门境内发现了伊朗制造的导弹残骸、相关军事装备和军用无人机”，尽管当时存在国际武器禁运。

Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images

两年前，该小组曾表示，“从外部来源向胡塞武装提供的各种军事物资和技术的规模、性质和范围，包括财政支持和对战斗人员的训练，都是前所未有的。”

专家指出，胡塞武装最新研制的导弹，例如“哈特姆-2”和“巴勒斯坦-2”，其设计与伊朗的武器非常相似。它们速度快、精度高。

去年，一枚胡塞武装的导弹突破了以色列引以为傲的防空系统，落在本古里安机场附近。分析人士阿米尔·巴尔·沙洛姆当时告诉CNN：“他们的命中率非常高，考虑到发射距离为2000公里，还能做到如此精准，这令人印象深刻。”

也门政府军发言人马吉德·纳齐利准将表示，胡塞武装还改装了伊朗的防空武器，使其能够打击飞机和巡航导弹。

“这些导弹每枚可移动长达 25 分钟，并采用热跟踪系统进行操作，”他上个月说。

胡塞武装长期以来一直是伊朗“抵抗轴心”的一部分。虽然真主党、哈马斯和伊拉克民兵等其他盟军组织实力大幅削弱，但胡塞武装却日益壮大。

他们与德黑兰保持着密切关系，并派代表团参加了前最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊的葬礼。但他们也有自己的打算。

2015 年至 2022 年，也门与沙特阿拉伯长达七年的冲突给胡塞武装控制的也门地区带来了巨大的苦难，此后经济和交通封锁一直持续至今。

最终，这导致胡塞武装在 7 月份宣布他们将袭击红海的沙特船只——导弹袭击行动随后不久开始，最初的目标是红海沿岸的沙特阿美炼油厂和沙特空军基地。

欧盟/哥白尼哨兵3号/路透社

胡塞武装要求沙特阿拉伯停止对也门政府军的空袭，并要求沙特阿拉伯支付数十亿美元的赔偿金。

无论出于何种诚意，伊朗都已提出在利雅得和胡塞武装之间进行调解。周一，伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇表示，德黑兰准备提供“任何必要的协助，以促成沙特阿拉伯和也门（指胡塞武装）之间的谈判”。

胡塞武装政治局成员穆罕默德·布海提周一声称，利雅得方面已接受调解，但该组织拒绝了为期两周和一个月的停火提议。

“这次的战斗与以往不同；战场也已不再是同一个战场，”布海提说。“这场战斗每过一天，战局就会扩大，损失就会加深，今天可能达成的协议，明天或许就会变得困难重重，甚至不可能。”

尽管与胡塞武装的冲突愈演愈烈，沙特阿拉伯仍试图营造“一切照旧”的假象。就在利雅得机场遭受一系列致命袭击之前，沙特民防部门上周停止了通过电话发布导弹和无人机来袭的公共警报。

据几位接受CNN采访的利雅得居民称，警报已经恢复。沙特当局表示，周一拦截了三枚弹道导弹。

一位居住在利雅得的外籍人士告诉CNN，本周他们的孩子都在家上网课。这位居民周六对前几天导弹来袭警报系统未能自动发出感到不满，但表示到周一，手机警报系统已经有效运行。他们还对沙特当局周末对利雅得机场遭袭事件保持沉默表示失望。

CNN已就未发布警报一事向沙特当局寻求回应。

展望未来，沙特王国将面临艰难抉择。在机场袭击事件造成十几名平民丧生后，与胡塞武装达成妥协是难以接受的。

沙特媒体部/美联社

如果局势升级，例如发动更猛烈的空袭，将会带来进一步导弹袭击的风险，这将破坏王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼将沙特阿拉伯打造成为世界一流的投资、科技和旅游目的地的目标。

这场投资的利害关系远不止石油行业。数据中心、海水淡化厂和机场是沙特王国科技雄心、供水和旅游经济的基石。本月晚些时候，王储将在利雅得举办一场备受瞩目的投资活动，届时他将向国际投资者推介投资项目。

但本周各大公司都避开了在利雅得举行的世界石油大会。

通过也门政府军参与的地面进攻击败胡塞武装的可能性极低。胡塞武装构筑了坚固的防御工事，身经百战，并且熟悉山区地形。在过去一个月里，他们给政府军造成了重大损失。

去年，美国花费超过10亿美元，对胡塞武装发动了为期七周的空袭。胡塞武装最终同意不攻击美国在红海的船只，但仍然坚守阵地——与此同时，他们还击落了多架美国先进的“死神”无人机。

美国和以色列的空袭都没有消灭胡塞武装的领导层成员，尽管一些指挥官和技术官僚被打死。

胡塞武装可能拥有多达35万兵力，而且似乎占据了主动。战争研究所周一表示，他们现在已经包围了也门第三大城市塔伊兹，该市是政府控制的，也是重要的后勤枢纽。

沙特通讯社/路透社

沙特阿拉伯正寻求组建国际联盟对抗胡塞武装。地区盟友已表示愿意提供防御系统方面的援助。巴基斯坦已派遣数千名士兵协助沙特保卫王国。埃及也表示愿意提供一切必要的支持。

在消耗完与伊朗冲突初期交付的防空系统后，沙特阿拉伯或许还能从欧洲和美国采购更多的防空系统。

但美国自身也缺乏此类系统。美国国防部监察长的一份报告称，对伊朗的军事行动“导致战略库存短缺，并暴露出弹药补给的工业基础瓶颈”。

距离中期选举还有三周，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对再次卷入中东冲突保持警惕。他对美国是否会直接打击胡塞武装一直态度暧昧，但也没有完全排除这种可能性。

华盛顿战略与国际研究中心的迈克尔·拉特尼表示：“美国不愿介入加剧了这样一种看法，即美国在伙伴最需要帮助的时候抛弃了它。”

在机场袭击事件发生前，曾任美国驻利雅得大使的拉特尼写道：“沙特王国正遭受攻击，从政治角度来看，它必须进行报复。但最终，我们应该期待外交手段的回归——一种不完美、不尽如人意的外交手段，尽管如此，它仍然能够缓和冲突。”

这可能使胡塞武装继续掌权，并在也门境内占据更强大的地位。

CNN的尼克·罗伯逊对本文亦有贡献。