US inflation rises before midterm elections, fuelling rate hike fears

Economists divided on Fed rate hike as inflation creates uncertainty in run-up to US midterm elections in a tense market.

Petrol price increases have fueled higher inflation [File: Richard Vogel/AP]

United States consumer prices jumped in September in the final inflation report before the midterm elections, increasing chances of an interest rate hike later this month.

Annual inflation accelerated to 3.7 percent, up from 3.4 percent in August. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.6 percent, according to the Consumer Price Index report released by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday.

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Petrol prices led the surge as tensions between the US and Iran, as well as Russia and Ukraine, weighed on global energy prices. Petrol prices rose 9.1 percent in September, accounting for more than half of the CPI monthly increase, according to the BLS. They were up 34.2 percent from the same time a year ago.

“The directionless war in Iran continues to disrupt global supply chains, driving up the prices of food and fuel,” Kyle Moore, chief economist at The Century Foundation, an economic think tank, said in a statement provided to Al Jazeera.

Petrol prices have continued to climb. The average price for a gallon of petrol is $4.33 ($1.14 per litre), compared with $4.31 a month ago, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), which tracks daily petrol prices. Diesel prices are higher, at $6.29 per gallon (1.66 per litre), compared with $6.23 a month ago.

In a post on X, Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, said, “2026 has now seen more days with average gas prices over $4/gal than any year before: 158 days.”

Shelter costs also jumped 0.4 percent from the previous month, following a 0.3 percent increase in August. Food costs were a bright spot in the report, remaining unchanged overall.

Food away from home, including restaurant meals, rose 0.2 percent, but that increase was offset by a 0.1 percent decline in food-at-home prices, which track grocery costs.

At the grocery store, poultry prices jumped 0.7 percent, fruit and vegetable prices rose 0.5 percent, and juice prices increased 1.1 percent. However, milk prices dropped 2.1 percent and beef prices fell 0.9 percent.

Amid heavy investment in AI infrastructure, prices for computer software and accessories have jumped 28 percent from the same time last year.

“The AI boom is playing a huge part, and we have all read about the hundreds of billions being poured into data centers, AI firms, and models,” Rami Cassis, principal of Parabellum Investment, said in comments provided to Al Jazeera.

The inflation data comes days before the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later this month. Last month, the US central bank raised rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.75–4.00 percent, the first hike in three years .

Economists are divided over whether the Fed will raise rates again or hold them steady. According to CME FedWatch, which tracks the likelihood of monetary policy decisions, there is a 52.9 percent chance that rates will remain in the 3.75–4.00 percent range, while a 47.1 percent chance of a quarter of a percentage point hike that would bring them to 4.00–4.25 percent.

The inflation data puts pressure on Republicans before the midterm elections on November 3. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that about 78 percent of Americans blamed US President Donald Trump’s policies for price increases.

US markets trended downward following the inflation report. The Nasdaq fell 0.8 percent and the S&P 500 dropped 0.6 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was roughly flat in midday trading.

由于通胀加剧了美国中期选举前的紧张市场局势，经济学家们对美联储是否应该加息意见不一。

汽油价格上涨加剧了通货膨胀。[图片：Richard Vogel/AP]

美国消费者价格指数在9月份大幅上涨，这是中期选举前的最后一份通胀报告，增加了本月晚些时候加息的可能性。

根据美国劳工部劳工统计局（BLS）周三发布的消费者价格指数报告，年通胀率加速至3.7%，高于8月份的3.4%。按月计算，价格上涨了0.6%。

这是中美两国在特朗普-习近平峰会后建议削减关税的四项商品清单中的第一项。

列表 2/4：受油价上涨和美元走强影响，金价下跌

名单中的第三家（共四家）是正在建设特朗普宣布的价值150亿美元的钢铁厂的印度公司，该公司与俄罗斯有着密切联系。

特朗普称胡塞武装试图在美国大选前抬高油价（共4条，此为第4条）

受美伊、俄乌紧张局势的影响，全球能源价格承压，汽油价格领涨。据美国劳工统计局（BLS）数据显示，9月份汽油价格上涨9.1%，占当月消费者价格指数（CPI）涨幅的一半以上。与去年同期相比，汽油价格上涨了34.2%。

“伊朗这场毫无方向的战争继续扰乱全球供应链，推高食品和燃料价格，”经济智库世纪基金会的首席经济学家凯尔·摩尔在提供给半岛电视台的一份声明中表示。

汽油价格持续上涨。据追踪每日汽油价格的美国汽车协会（AAA）数据显示，目前汽油平均价格为每加仑4.33美元（每升1.14美元），而一个月前为每加仑4.31美元。柴油价格更高，为每加仑6.29美元（每升1.66美元），而一个月前为每加仑6.23美元。

GasBuddy 石油分析主管 Patrick DeHaan 在 X 网站上发表的一篇文章中表示：“2026 年平均汽油价格超过 4 美元/加仑的天数比以往任何一年都多：158 天。”

住房成本较上月上涨0.4%，此前8月份上涨了0.3%。食品成本是报告中的亮点，总体保持不变。

外出就餐（包括餐厅用餐）价格上涨了 0.2%，但这一涨幅被家庭食品价格（与食品杂货成本相关）下降 0.1% 所抵消。

在杂货店，家禽价格上涨了0.7%，水果和蔬菜价格上涨了0.5%，果汁价格上涨了1.1%。然而，牛奶价格下降了2.1%，牛肉价格下降了0.9%。

由于对人工智能基础设施的大量投资，计算机软件和配件的价格比去年同期上涨了 28%。

“人工智能的蓬勃发展发挥了巨大作用，我们都读到过数千亿美元被投入到数据中心、人工智能公司和模型中，” Parabellum Investment 的负责人 Rami Cassis 在提供给半岛电视台的评论中说道。

通胀数据发布之际，正值美联储本月晚些时候即将公布利率决议的前几天。上个月，美联储将利率上调25个基点，将目标利率区间上调至3.75%至4.00%，这是三年来的首次加息。

经济学家们对于美联储是否会再次加息或维持利率不变意见不一。据追踪货币政策决策可能性的芝加哥商品交易所（CME）旗下FedWatch数据显示，利率维持在3.75%至4.00%区间的可能性为52.9%，而加息0.25个百分点（即升至4.00%至4.25%）的可能性为47.1%。

通胀数据给共和党人在11月3日中期选举前带来了压力。路透社/益普索最近的一项民意调查显示，约78%的美国人将物价上涨归咎于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的政策。

受通胀报告影响，美国股市普遍下跌。纳斯达克指数下跌0.8%，标普500指数下跌0.6%，而道琼斯工业平均指数午盘交易基本持平。