'Super El Niño' could bring roller-coaster winter weather to Korea

Wild temperature swings are expected across Korea through the winter as a potentially record-strength El Niño develops. Seoul’s morning low fell to 9 degrees Celsius on Wednesday, while temperatures are forecast to rise above average before dropping again. The World Meteorological Organization projects sea-surface temperatures 3.7 degrees above average from October to December, which could bring mild spells, sudden cold snaps and heavy precipitation.

The projected El Niño anomaly of 3.7 degrees Celsius would exceed the previous record of 2.6 degrees set between November 2015 and January 2016.

El Niño events with sea-surface temperatures more than 2 degrees Celsius above average are classified as super El Niño episodes.

December 2015 averaged 3.2 degrees Celsius nationally, while Seoul’s lowest temperature fell to minus 18 degrees slightly more than a month later.

During the winter of 1997, precipitation reached three times the seasonal average, and Jeju recorded 12 centimeters of snowfall in one day in January 2016.

Published Oct 15, 2026 5:11 pm KST

Pedestrians in warm attire walk along a street in Seoul, Wednesday, as morning temperatures in the city dropped to 9.3 degrees Celsius. Yonhap

Wild temperature swings are expected to continue through the winter, with what could be the strongest El Niño on record forecast to peak toward the end of the year, raising the likelihood of a “roller-coaster winter” marked by mild spells interrupted by sudden cold snaps.

According to the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), morning lows on Wednesday plunged by around 10 degrees Celsius from the previous day, reaching 9 degrees in Seoul and 3 degrees in Daegwallyeong, Gangwon Province. Temperatures are expected to gradually rise above the seasonal average over the weekend before plunging again, with lows reaching 3 degrees by the middle of next week, pointing to continued sharp fluctuations.

The erratic weather is typical of autumn, when migratory high- and low-pressure systems pass through the Korean Peninsula in succession. Cold winds blowing down from the north are battling warm, humid southerly winds originating over the western Pacific, where sea temperatures are higher than normal, causing weather conditions to fluctuate sharply.

Such unpredictable conditions are expected to persist through the winter, driven in part by a “super El Niño.” The World Meteorological Organization forecasts that sea surface temperatures in the El Niño monitoring region will be 3.7 degrees Celsius above average from October to December. That would far exceed the previous record of 2.6 degrees, set between November 2015 and January 2016.

Frost covers the Daegwallyeong area in Pyeongchang County, Gangwon Province, Oct. 6, when the season’s first cold wave advisory was issued. Yonhap

El Niño is a climate phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific remain at least 0.5 degrees above average. Events in which temperatures rise more than 2 degrees above average are classified as super El Niño episodes.

El Niño’s effects on the Korean Peninsula are most pronounced in winter. As the phenomenon intensifies, convective activity over the western Pacific weakens, generating high-pressure circulation near the Philippine Sea. Atmospheric waves transmit the effects eastward, strengthening a high-pressure system east of Japan. Warm, humid southerly winds then flow toward the Korean Peninsula along the system’s periphery, bringing above-average temperatures and increased precipitation.

However, sudden cold snaps can occur when cold air from the north surges southward. At times, cold Arctic air may descend abruptly and force temperatures to plunge, particularly as sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas north of Europe melts almost completely, according to the report.

“When temperatures are around 5 degrees above zero and air at minus 5 degrees suddenly moves in, that creates a 10-degree difference,” KMA forecaster Woo Jin-gyu said. “The cold people feel can be much more severe than the absolute temperature alone would suggest.”

A similar pattern of sharp temperature swings was observed from late 2015 to early 2016, during a strong El Niño event. The national average temperature in December 2015 was 3.2 degrees, the warmest December since modern meteorological observations began in 1973. Just over a month later, however, Jeju Island issued a cold wave advisory for the first time in seven years, while Seoul’s lowest temperature plunged to minus 18 degrees.

Snow and rain accompanying cold spells are another potential hazard. During the winter of 1997, when El Niño reached its strongest level on record at the time, precipitation was three times the seasonal average. In January 2016, Jeju was hit by record snowfall of 12 centimeters in a single day, causing significant damage.

Experts urged authorities to step up preparations for potential weather-related disasters, warning that forecasts for the coming winter remain highly uncertain.

“An El Niño of unprecedented intensity will amplify weather fluctuations,” said Lee Myung-in, a professor at the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology. “We need to prepare for heavy snowfall and sudden cold snaps based on the worst-case scenario.”

This article from the Hankook Ilbo, the sister publication of The Korea Times, is translated by a generative AI system and edited by The Korea Times.

预计整个冬季韩国气温将出现剧烈波动，因为一股可能创纪录强度的厄尔尼诺现象正在形成。周三首尔早晨最低气温降至9摄氏度，预计气温将先高于平均水平，然后再次下降。世界气象组织预测，10月至12月海面温度将比平均水平高出3.7摄氏度，这可能带来温和天气、突发寒潮和强降水。

预计厄尔尼诺现象造成的气温异常升高将达到 3.7 摄氏度，超过 2015 年 11 月至 2016 年 1 月期间创下的 2.6 摄氏度的纪录。

海面温度比平均温度高出 2 摄氏度以上的厄尔尼诺事件被归类为超级厄尔尼诺事件。

2015 年 12 月全国平均气温为 3.2 摄氏度，而首尔的最低气温在一个多月后降至零下 18 摄氏度。

1997 年冬季，降水量达到季节平均水平的三倍；2016 年 1 月，济州岛一天降雪量达到 12 厘米。

发布于2026年10月15日下午5:11（韩国标准时间）

周三，首尔早晨气温降至9.3摄氏度，行人身着保暖衣物走在街上。（韩联社）

预计冬季气温将持续剧烈波动，有记录以来最强的厄尔尼诺现象预计将在年底达到顶峰，这增加了“过山车式冬季”的可能性，其特点是温暖时期与突如其来的寒流交替出现。

据韩国气象厅消息，周三早晨最低气温较前一日骤降约10摄氏度，首尔最低气温达9摄氏度，江原道大关岭市最低气温达3摄氏度。预计周末气温将逐渐回升至高于季节平均水平，之后再次骤降，下周中期最低气温将降至3摄氏度，表明气温波动将持续剧烈。

这种变幻莫测的天气是秋季的典型特征，此时高低气压系统交替经过朝鲜半岛。来自北方的冷空气与源自西太平洋的温暖潮湿的南风交锋，而西太平洋的海温高于正常水平，导致天气状况剧烈波动。

预计这种难以预测的天气状况将持续整个冬季，部分原因是受到“超级厄尔尼诺”现象的影响。世界气象组织预测，从1​​0月到12月，厄尔尼诺监测区域的海面温度将比平均水平高出3.7摄氏度。这将远远超过2015年11月至2016年1月期间创下的2.6摄氏度的纪录。

10月6日，江原道平昌郡大关岭地区出现霜冻，当天发布了入冬以来的第一波寒潮预警。（韩联社）

厄尔尼诺现象是一种气候现象，其特征是中东太平洋赤道海域的海面温度比平均水平高出至少0.5摄氏度。当海面温度比平均水平高出2摄氏度以上时，则被称为超级厄尔尼诺事件。

厄尔尼诺现象对朝鲜半岛的影响在冬季最为显著。随着厄尔尼诺现象的增强，西太平洋上空的对流活动减弱，在菲律宾海附近形成高压环流。大气波将这种影响向东传递，增强了日本以东的高压系统。随后，温暖潮湿的南风沿着该系统的边缘吹向朝鲜半岛，带来高于平均水平的气温和降水量。

然而，当来自北方的冷空气南下时，可能会出现突如其来的寒流。报告指出，有时，北极冷空气会突然下沉，导致气温骤降，尤其是在欧洲北部巴伦支海和喀拉海的海冰几乎完全融化时。

韩国气象厅预报员禹镇圭表示：“当气温在零上5度左右，而零下5度的空气突然涌入时，就会造成10度的温差。人们感受到的寒冷程度可能比单纯的绝对温度所显示的要严重得多。”

2015年末至2016年初，在强厄尔尼诺现象期间，也出现了类似的剧烈气温波动。2015年12月全国平均气温为3.2摄氏度，是自1973年现代气象观测开始以来最温暖的12月。然而，仅仅一个月后，济州岛就发布了七年来首次寒潮预警，而首尔的最低气温也骤降至零下18摄氏度。

伴随寒潮而来的雨雪是另一大潜在灾害。1997年冬季，厄尔尼诺现象达到有记录以来最强水平，降水量是往年同期平均水平的三倍。2016年1月，济州岛单日降雪量达到创纪录的12厘米，造成严重损失。

专家敦促有关部门加强应对可能发生的与天气相关的灾害的准备工作，并警告说，即将到来的冬季的天气预报仍然存在很大的不确定性。

“前所未有的强厄尔尼诺现象将加剧天气波动，”蔚山科学技术大学教授李明仁表示，“我们需要根据最坏的情况做好准备，应对强降雪和突如其来的寒流。”

本文来自《韩国日报》（《韩国时报》的姊妹报），由人工智能生成系统翻译，并由《韩国时报》编辑。