The White House won’t even try to explain Trump’s fictional inflation numbers

The actual inflation numbers aren’t good for President Donald Trump and his party. So Trump has come up with something of a solution: just use fake inflation numbers.

Trump has been lying about inflation throughout the midterm election campaign. Among other things, he has falsely declared he has “already stopped the inflation” (it accelerated again in September ), that “prices are now coming way down” (they have continued rising), and that prices are now “way down” from when former president Joe Biden left office in January 2025 (they are up 5.4% on average).

But in a series of rally speeches and comments to the press this week, Trump has gone a step further – deploying specific but phony numbers to make inflation seem better than it is.

In a Tuesday rally speech in Alaska, Trump claimed that there was just “1.7 inflation in the last three months. Think of that, 1.7. He (Biden) had real inflation; he had real inflation of 19%.” On Wednesday, more than 12 hours after newly released Consumer Price Index figures showed a 3.7% year-over-year inflation rate in September, Trump repeated in a rally speech in Montana: “We inherited the worst inflation in history, think of it, and now, the last three months, we have 1.7 – we have it down to – he (Biden) had 19%, his real number’s 19%.”

Trump’s figures are so bewildering that it is hard to figure out what exactly he is even talking about. The White House has so far ignored our requests for an explanation.

But we can think of three possible things Trump could conceivably be doing here and none of them would make his claims accurate. Heather Long, chief economist for Navy Federal Credit Union, said Thursday that “the 1.7% inflation figure is not supported by the data.”

For years , Trump has invented fictional economic numbers that work better for his purposes than the actual economic numbers. So it’s very possible he’s just lying about the year-over-year inflation rates that tend to be the most commonly discussed – wildly exaggerating the highest rate under Biden and significantly reducing the most recent rates this year.

In the last three months of 2026 for which Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is available, the year-over-year inflation rate was far higher than “1.7%”: 3.7% in September , 3.4% in August and 3.4% in July . September data isn’t yet available for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, but that index shows the year-over-year rate was 3.4% in August, 3.4% in July and 3.5% in June .

Joe Raedle/Getty Images

This wouldn’t be the first time he has made a false claim about having “1.7%” inflation for three months. In May, he falsely claimed that “just before the war” with Iran, “for the last three months, inflation was at 1.7%.” That was wrong , too, and the White House could not offer any substantiation at the time.

Peak year-over-year inflation under Biden was 9.1%, in June 2022 , not “19%.” So why do we suspect that Trump might be (incorrectly) referring to peak Biden-era inflation when he claims Biden was at “19%”? In a 2022 speech, Trump said Biden and Democrats had given the country 9.1% inflation, then quickly added, “It’s not 9.1%. I believe it’s double that.”

It’s not. The Consumer Price Index has its flaws and limitations , but there is no basis for any claim that the “real” figure is double the actual CPI figure.

Cumulative inflation is the total increase in prices over a given period. There has been a 1.1% cumulative increase over the last three months, according to the CPI. That’s not a “1.7%” increase, so cumulative inflation doesn’t seem like what Trump is referring to, since he almost never uses a higher number when a lower number would be more helpful to him…

…but even if he was referring to cumulative inflation, his Trump-vs.-Biden comparison would be very deceptive. That’s because there is no reasonable way to compare three-month inflation under Trump to “19%” inflation under Biden.

The total increase in prices over Biden’s four-year term as president was 21.4% , according to the CPI, so “19%” is at least in the ballpark. But it would be completely nonsensical to contrast Biden-era cumulative inflation over 48 months with Trump-era cumulative inflation over three months.

Cumulative inflation during this Trump term to date, through 20 months, is 5.4% .

This wouldn’t do anything to support Trump’s “19%” figure for Biden. But it’s possible that Trump’s “1.7%” figure for the last three months is his inaccurate rendition of a fair point National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett made this week – “core” PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was at an annualized rate of 2% for the three months from June through August.

This is the most generous reading of Trump’s “1.7%” figure we can think of, but it would still mean Trump was not telling the truth. He didn’t say in any of these comments that he was referring to core inflation rather than overall inflation; during an election in which gas prices are a major driver in overall inflation and a major factor in voter discontent, that’s a big omission. And 2% is not “1.7%.”

Also, the three-month PCE rate is widely expected to increase when the September figures for that index are released later in October. After the September CPI figures were released Wednesday, three-month core CPI jumped to an annualized rate of 3.4% – rising from the previous 2% after the September data replaced the June data in the calculation.

Long said the September data “changed the trend sharply. A key reason that 3-month annualized trend looked decent in August was due to falling gas prices in June and July.” And she said that while a reference to core inflation is her “best guess” about where Trump got his number, “I still can’t come up with 1.7%” without stripping out yet more price categories.

Trump has been saying at event after event that he inherited the worst inflation in US history from Biden. He didn’t, as CNN and others have repeatedly noted.

The year-over-year inflation rate was 2.9% in Biden’s last full month in office, December 2024, and 3% in January 2025, the month Trump took over partway through. Those numbers are unremarkable by historical standards, nowhere near any record, and lower than the rate every month since Trump launched a war with Iran early this year.

Trump could fairly say the 9.1% peak year-over-year inflation under Biden was the highest in more than 40 years. But even that 9.1% rate was much lower than the all-time high, 23.7% , or the highest point of Jimmy Carter’s presidency, 14.8%, which was reached in 1980. And the rate then fell significantly before Trump returned to office.

The cumulative increase in prices from the beginning of Biden’s administration to the end was also not the highest in US history; it was less than half of cumulative inflation during Carter’s term.

CNN’s Alicia Wallace contributed to this article.

实际的通胀数据对唐纳德·特朗普总统及其政党不利。因此，特朗普想出了一个解决办法：伪造通胀数据。

特朗普在整个中期选举竞选期间一直在通货膨胀问题上撒谎。他曾多次谎称自己“已经阻止了通货膨胀”（但通货膨胀在9月份再次加速），“物价正在大幅下降”（但物价仍在持续上涨），以及现在的物价与前总统乔·拜登2025年1月卸任时相比“大幅下降”（但平均物价上涨了5.4%）。

但本周，特朗普在一系列集会演讲和对媒体的评论中更进一步——利用具体但虚假的数字来美化通货膨胀，使其看起来比实际情况要好。

周二在阿拉斯加的一次集会上，特朗普声称过去三个月的通胀率只有“1.7%。想想看，才1.7%。他（拜登）执政时期实际通胀率高达19%。”周三，在最新公布的消费者价格指数数据显示9月份同比通胀率为3.7%超过12小时后，特朗普在蒙大拿州的一次集会上再次重申：“我们接手的是历史上最严重的通胀，想想看，而现在，过去三个月，通胀率只有1.7%——我们已经降到了——他（拜登）执政时期的通胀率是19%，他的实际通胀率是19%。”

特朗普提供的数据令人费解，让人难以理解他究竟在说什么。白宫至今仍对我们要求解释的请求置之不理。

但我们可以想到特朗普可能正在做的三件事，而这三件事都无法使他的说法成立。海军联邦信贷联盟首席经济学家希瑟·朗周四表示，“1.7%的通胀数据没有数据支持。”

多年来，特朗普捏造了一些比实际经济数据更符合他利益的虚假经济数据。因此，他很可能只是在最常被提及的年度通胀率问题上撒谎——他极力夸大拜登执政时期最高的通胀率，并大幅低估了今年的最新通胀率。

在2026年最后三个月（有消费者价格指数（CPI）数据可查）中，同比通胀率远高于“1.7%”：9月份为3.7%，8月份为3.4%，7月份为3.4%。个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数的9月份数据尚未公布，但该指数显示，8月份同比通胀率为3.4%，7月份为3.4%，6月份为3.5%。

乔·雷德尔/盖蒂图片社

这并非他第一次谎称过去三个月通胀率为“1.7%”。今年5月，他曾错误地声称，在与伊朗开战前，“过去三个月的通胀率一直保持在1.7%”。这同样是错误的，当时白宫也无法提供任何证据。

拜登执政期间的同比通胀峰值出现在2022年6月，为9.1%，而非“19%”。那么，为什么我们怀疑特朗普声称拜登执政期间通胀率为“19%”时，可能（错误地）指的是拜登执政时期的通胀峰值呢？在2022年的一次演讲中，特朗普表示拜登和民主党人给美国带来了9.1%的通胀，随后又迅速补充道：“不是9.1%，我认为是两倍。”

并非如此。消费者价格指数确实存在缺陷和局限性，但没有任何证据表明“真实”数字是实际CPI数字的两倍。

累计通胀率是指特定时期内物价的总涨幅。根据消费者物价指数（CPI），过去三个月累计通胀率为1.1%。这并非“1.7%”的涨幅，因此累计通胀率似乎并非特朗普所指，因为他几乎从不使用更高的数字，而更低的数字对他更有利……

……但即便他指的是累计通胀率，他拿特朗普和拜登做比较也极具误导性。因为根本无法将特朗普执政三个月的通胀率与拜登执政期间“19%”的通胀率进行合理的比较。

根据消费者物价指数（CPI），拜登四年总统任期内物价总涨幅为21.4%，因此“19%”至少大致符合实际情况。但将拜登执政时期48个月的累计通胀率与特朗普执政时期三个月的累计通胀率进行比较，是完全没有意义的。

截至目前，特朗普执政20个月以来，累计通货膨胀率为5.4%。

这并不能佐证特朗普所说的拜登“19%”的支持率。但特朗普所说的过去三个月“1.7%”的数字，很可能是他对国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特本周提出的一个合理观点的错误解读——剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心个人消费支出（PCE）通胀率，在6月至8月这三个月的年化率为2%。

这已经是我们能想到的对特朗普“1.7%”数据最宽容的解读了，但这仍然意味着特朗普没有说实话。他从未在任何评论中说明他指的是核心通胀而非总体通胀；在这次选举中，汽油价格是总体通胀的主要驱动因素，也是选民不满的主要因素，因此这是一个重大疏漏。而且，2%也并非“1.7%”。

此外，市场普遍预期9月份公布的三个月个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数将有所上升。周三公布9月份消费者物价指数（CPI）数据后，三个月核心CPI年化率跃升至3.4%，高于此前计算中的2%（9月份数据取代了6月份数据）。

朗表示，9月份的数据“急剧改变了趋势。8月份三个月的年化趋势看起来不错，一个关键原因是6月和7月汽油价格下跌。”她还表示，虽然她“最有可能”认为特朗普的数据来源是核心通胀，但她“仍然无法得出1.7%这个数字”，除非剔除更多价格类别。

特朗普在各种场合都声称，他从拜登手中继承了美国历史上最严重的通货膨胀。但事实并非如此，CNN和其他媒体已经多次指出这一点。

拜登任期最后一个完整月份（2024年12月）的同比通胀率为2.9%，而特朗普中途接任总统的2025年1月的同比通胀率为3%。从历史标准来看，这些数字并不突出，远未达到任何历史最高纪录，而且低于特朗普今年年初对伊朗发动战争以来每个月的通胀率。

特朗普完全可以说，拜登执政期间9.1%的同比通胀峰值是40多年来的最高值。但即使是9.1%的通胀率也远低于历史最高值23.7%，也低于吉米·卡特总统任期内的最高值14.8%（1980年）。而且，在特朗普再次当选总统之前，通胀率已经大幅下降。

从拜登执政开始到结束，物价累计上涨幅度也不是美国历史上最高的；它不到卡特执政时期累计通胀率的一半。

CNN的艾丽西亚·华莱士对本文亦有贡献。