Poll shows Bolsonaro with slight lead over Lula ahead of Brazilian run-off

Poll shows right-wing candidate with two percent advantage over Lula going into second round of voting on October 25.

A woman holds up a sign at a demonstration in support of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's re-election bid ahead of the October 25 presidential run-off in Brasilia, Brazil, October 13, 2026 [Adriano Machado/Reuters]

A new poll has found that right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a slight lead over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as the two candidates seek an edge ahead of Brazil’s tense October 25 run-off vote.

A Quaest poll released on Thursday found that Bolsonaro, son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 46 percent of the vote compared to Lula’s 44 percent, a difference within the two-percent margin of error.

list 1 of 3 Why Flavio Bolsonaro outperformed the polls in Brazil’s election

list 2 of 3 Will Brazil’s Lula halt the right-wing wave sweeping Latin America?

list 3 of 3 Brazil’s presidential race: Three key takeaways from the first round

Bolsonaro outperformed expectations during the first round of voting on October 4, beating Lula by less than two points despite most polls suggesting that the leftist president was on track for a marginal first-round win. Neither candidate secured a majority that would have avoided a run-off.

The poll, the first released by Quaest since the initial round of voting , shows that Bolsonaro has held onto his lead and remains the favourite heading into the second round.

Lula has sought to rally his supporters after the October 4 loss, holding large rallies that have drawn millions of people onto the street .

While Bolsonaro has remained ahead in the polls, analysts have pointed out that he has not benefitted as much from the elimination of several conservative candidates, whose supporters would presumably prefer him to Lula, as might have been expected after the first round.

Bolsonaro has made progress securing endorsements from right and centre-right parties, however, seeking to consolidate support from conservatives and build a coalition friendly to business interests and a policy agenda sought by investors .

Brazil’s Senate approved a constitutional amendment on Wednesday reducing the country’s maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours per week without a reduction in pay, delivering a key priority for Lula as the president presses his case to an electorate that is anxious about cost-of-living issues.

“Today is a day to celebrate a historic achievement for millions of workers,” Lula said in a statement. “This means having more time to live, rest, be with family, watch your children grow up, take care of yourself, and enjoy life. Those who work so hard to build Brazil also deserve to have time to live.”

The president also recently banned sports betting, which had caused an explosion of gambling addiction and contributed to surging household debt across the country.

民调显示，右翼候选人在10月25日第二轮投票前领先卢拉2个百分点。

2026年10月13日，在巴西首都巴西利亚，一名女子在支持巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦竞选连任的示威活动中举着标语，当时正值10月25日总统决选前夕。[Adriano Machado/路透社]

最新民调显示，右翼参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗在与总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦的竞争中保持微弱领先优势，两位候选人都在巴西紧张的10月25日决选投票前寻求优势。

Quaest 周四公布的一项民意调查显示，前极右翼总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗之子博尔索纳罗将获得 46% 的选票，而卢拉将获得 44% 的选票，这一差距在 2% 的误差范围内。

列表 1/3：弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在巴西大选中表现优于民调的原因

列表 2/3：巴西的卢拉能否阻止席卷拉丁美洲的右翼浪潮？

巴西总统大选：第一轮投票的三大要点（共三份）

在10月4日举行的首轮投票中，博索纳罗的表现超出预期，以不到两个百分点的优势击败卢拉，而此前大多数民调显示这位左翼总统有望在首轮投票中险胜。两位候选人均未获得过半数选票，因此需要进行第二轮投票。

Quaest 自第一轮投票以来首次发布的民意调查显示，博索纳罗保持了领先优势，仍然是进入第二轮投票的热门人选。

卢拉在 10 月 4 日败选后，一直试图团结他的支持者，举行大规模集会，吸引了数百万人走上街头。

尽管博索纳罗在民调中仍然领先，但分析人士指出，他并没有像人们预期的那样，从几位保守派候选人的淘汰中获益良多，这些候选人的支持者可能更倾向于选择他而不是卢拉。

博索纳罗在争取右翼和中右翼政党的支持方面取得了进展，他正寻求巩固保守派的支持，并建立一个对商业利益友好的联盟，以及投资者所寻求的政策议程。

巴西参议院周三批准了一项宪法修正案，将该国每周最长工作时间从 44 小时减少到 40 小时，且不减薪。这对于卢拉总统来说是一项关键优先事项，因为总统正在向选民施压，而选民们正对生活成本问题感到焦虑。

卢拉在一份声明中表示：“今天是庆祝数百万劳动者取得历史性成就的日子。这意味着他们有更多的时间生活、休息、陪伴家人、看着孩子长大、照顾自己，享受生活。那些为建设巴西而辛勤工作的人们也理应拥有享受生活的时间。”

总统最近还禁止了体育博彩，体育博彩曾导致赌博成瘾人数激增，并加剧了全国家庭债务的飙升。