Myanmar’s coup leader-turned-president wins back neighbours despite war

From Thailand to Myanmar, ASEAN leaders are embracing Min Aung Hlaing, but critics warn it emboldens a military that is still bombing civilians.

Rohingya activist says it’s unfair to send refugees back to Myanmar

Yangon, Myanmar – When Malaysia invited Myanmar’s coup leader-turned-president Min Aung Hlaing for a visit in September , it insisted the trip did not amount to recognition. The purpose, an official said, was to address the “longstanding issue” of refugees and migrants from Myanmar in Malaysia.

But when Min Aung Hlaing arrived in Kuala Lumpur last week, the former general – whose power grab in 2021 triggered a devastating civil war – received a red carpet welcome, complete with an honour guard.

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After an official luncheon on Thursday, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said Myanmar was prepared to take its nationals back at its own cost, a message with appeal in a country where anti-refugee sentiment is growing. Malaysia hosts about 1 93,000 Myanmar nationals , most of them from the persecuted Rohingya Muslim minority.

“Because the weather is favourable, I will dispatch Navy ships to repatriate them,” Min Aung Hlaing said.

For his part, Anwar pledged to help reintegrate Myanmar into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the 11-member regional bloc that has barred Min Aung Hlaing from its high-level meetings for refusing to carry out its peace plan. Malaysia was a vocal supporter of the plan, which is known as the Five Point Consensus and calls for an end to violence and “constructive dialogue” between the warring parties.

The civil war in Myanmar is now in its fifth year and has killed as many as 100,000 people and displaced at least 3.5 million, according to monitoring groups.

“Malaysia will do whatever is possible to make sure that we … ultimately, take Myanmar as part of our community of nations, without prejudice, and particularly in the context of ASEAN,” Anwar told reporters.

Malaysia is the fifth ASEAN nation to host Min Aung Hlaing since he became president in April, after an election held in December and January, which major opposition parties were barred from participating in. In recent months, he has visited Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos.

Following his return from Malaysia, his spokesperson said Indonesia and Brunei could be next.

“Malaysia’s reversal on Min Aung Hlaing has broken a dam of opposition to the junta,” said Bridget Welsh, an honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham’s Asia Research Institute in Kuala Lumpur. She said regional leaders who have welcomed Min Aung Hlaing, despite accusations that he has committed crimes against humanity, were putting pragmatism ahead of human rights.

“It is a step back for ASEAN as an organisation, and for Myanmar,” she said. “It does not offer any concrete path to the resolution of the Myanmar crisis, and in fact, arguably worsens it by giving the military legitimacy internationally, a legitimacy it does not have in Myanmar itself.”

‘Convenience plays a part’

Min Aung Hlaing’s rehabilitation extends beyond Southeast Asia.

Since April, the former general has also visited India, China, Russia and Belarus. At each stop, he has tried to present his government as stable and “on the path to democracy”, while pitching trade and infrastructure deals.

Even the United States appears to have opened the door .

Washington has begun direct talks with Min Aung Hlaing’s government, the Reuters news agency reported last week, despite sanctions on him over human rights abuses. These include the 2017 crackdown on the Rohingya, which sent more than 700,000 people fleeing into Bangladesh and which the US has called a genocide.

Reuters said the latest talks have focused on shutting down scam centres operating from Myanmar that have defrauded Americans of billions of dollars.

Khin Zaw Win, director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, said Min Aung Hlaing’s quest for international legitimacy has been aided by a coordinated push from China, India and Thailand, all of which share borders with Myanmar. The three neighbours have experienced spillover from the war, such as fighting near their borders, disrupted trade and influxes of refugees.

Khin Zaw Win said the three countries “have the biggest stakes in how Myanmar pans out” and want the military-installed government recognised. “Convenience plays a part for all of them,” he said.

The growing diplomatic recognition, however, has done little to resolve the conflict.

While Min Aung Hlaing has invited all armed groups to peace talks, fighting continues to rage across much of the country. His forces have launched offensives to retake territory lost to opposition armed rebels and ethnic armed groups in Rakhine, Chin, Kachin and Karen states and the Sagaing region. They have been aided by an intensified air campaign and a recruitment drive that has added tens of thousands to their ranks. China, too, has helped by brokering ceasefires between the military and powerful ethnic armed groups on its border.

Still, Laetitia van den Assum, a former Dutch diplomat, said the military is unlikely to regain control of the whole country.

“That would require a huge occupation army and not – as now – a garrison army that controls a particular location,” she said. “That is why Min Aung Hlaing… bets on an increasing number of temporary ceasefires in some parts of the country so that troops can be directed to areas where he wants to continue fighting”.

Van den Assum said she found it “quite surprising” that ASEAN nations are seeking Rohingya repatriation from the very man accused of orchestrating crimes against them.

Myanmar has long denied the Rohingya citizenship, so it is unclear whether it would accept them as nationals. And with much of Rakhine State – their homeland – now held by the ethnic Arakan Army, it is far from clear where they would go.

“It is the blind speaking to the blind,” she said.

‘Low-cost, high optics’

Min Aung Hlaing has made other gestures.

Shortly before his trip to Thailand in August, he allowed the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to see Aung San Suu Kyi, the civilian leader he deposed in 2021. The 81-year-old Nobel laureate has been held incommunicado since the coup, and the ICRC visit on August 3 produced her first photographs in years.

Sai Kyi Zin Soe, a research fellow at the University of Sydney, called the move a “low-cost, high-optics gesture rather than a real political opening”. The visit confirmed only that Aung San Suu Kyi is alive, “nothing more”, he said.

He noted that the military’s air raids have continued unabated even as ASEAN leaders roll out the red carpet, including a September 28 strike on a market in Rakhine State that killed an estimated 50 people.

The continuing attacks, he said, were the “strongest evidence that soft diplomacy hasn’t produced any deterrent effect”.

Sai Kyi Zin Soe also warned that the legitimacy conferred by the foreign visits would embolden the military further.

“Given the near-total absence of deterrence, no meaningful sanctions enforcement, an ASEAN pivoting toward re-engagement, and continued arms and fuel access via China and Russia, the military has every structural incentive to keep escalating, particularly in contested zones like Sagaing and Rakhine, where its grip is weakest,” he said.

Much now depends on the Philippines and Singapore, ASEAN’s current and incoming chairs.

Phil Robertson, director of Asia Human Rights and Labor Advocates, said the two countries must set an agenda that pushes back hard on entreaties from others in the region to allow “Myanmar fully back into the fold” and keep pressing the bloc’s five-point peace plan.

He also urged the US, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and the European Union to adopt targeted sanctions, such as an aviation fuel ban, rather than leaving “the whole Myanmar conundrum” to the regional bloc.

“International accountability is now more urgent than ever, whether that comes through additional universal jurisdiction cases or some sort of breakthrough to refer Myanmar’s generals to the International Criminal Court,” he added.

Zaheena Rasheed reported and wrote from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

从泰国到缅甸，东盟领导人都在支持敏昂莱，但批评人士警告说，这会助长仍在轰炸平民的军方的气焰。

罗兴亚活动人士表示，将难民遣返回缅甸是不公平的。

缅甸仰光——今年9月，马来西亚邀请缅甸政变领导人、现任总统敏昂莱访问该国，并坚称此行并不等同于承认其政权。一位官员表示，此行的目的是为了解决马来西亚境内长期存在的缅甸难民和移民问题。

但上周敏昂莱抵达吉隆坡时，这位前将军——他在 2021 年夺取政权引发了一场毁灭性的内战——受到了隆重的欢迎，还有仪仗队列队迎接。

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列表 3/4：尽管联合国发出警告，仍有近 1500 名移民从马来西亚抵达缅甸。

马来西亚总理表示将致力于缅甸重新融入东盟的四项举措中的第四项

周四，马来西亚总理安瓦尔·易卜拉欣在出席一场官方午宴后表示，缅甸准备自费接收其国民。在反难民情绪日益高涨的马来西亚，这一信息颇具吸引力。马来西亚目前收容了约19.3万名缅甸国民，其中大部分是遭受迫害的罗兴亚穆斯林少数族裔。

“由于天气条件有利，我将派遣海军舰艇将他们遣返回国，”敏昂莱说。

安华承诺帮助缅甸重新融入东南亚国家联盟（东盟）。东盟是一个由11个成员国组成的区域集团，由于敏昂莱拒绝执行东盟的和平计划，东盟已禁止他参加高级别会议。马来西亚是该计划的坚定支持者，该计划被称为“五点共识”，呼吁交战各方停止暴力并开展“建设性对话”。

据监测组织称，缅甸内战已进入第五年，造成多达 10 万人死亡，至少 350 万人流离失所。

安华告诉记者：“马来西亚将尽一切可能确保我们……最终将缅甸纳入我们的国际社会，不带任何偏见，尤其是在东盟的背景下。”

自敏昂莱4月就任总统以来，马来西亚是第五个接待他的东盟国家。敏昂莱是在去年12月和今年1月举行的总统选举后当选的，但主要反对党被禁止参选。近几个月来，他还访问了泰国、越南、柬埔寨和老挝。

他从马来西亚返回后，他的发言人表示，印度尼西亚和文莱可能是下一个目标。

“马来西亚在敏昂莱问题上的立场转变打破了反对军政府的堤坝，”诺丁汉大学亚洲研究所吉隆坡分所的荣誉研究员布里奇特·韦尔什表示。她指出，尽管敏昂莱被指控犯有反人类罪，但一些地区领导人仍然欢迎他，这表明他们将实用主义置于人权之上。

她说：“这对东盟作为一个组织以及对缅甸来说都是一次倒退。它没有为解决缅甸危机提供任何具体途径，事实上，它赋予军方在国际上的合法性，而这种合法性在缅甸国内是不存在的，因此可以说它加剧了危机。”

“便利性也是一个因素”

敏昂莱的复兴计划不仅限于东南亚地区。

自四月以来，这位前将军还访问了印度、中国、俄罗斯和白俄罗斯。每到一处，他都试图将自己的政府描绘成一个稳定且“走在民主道路上”的国家，同时积极推销贸易和基础设施建设协议。

就连美国似乎也敞开了大门。

据路透社上周报道，尽管美国因敏昂莱侵犯人权而对其实施制裁，但华盛顿已开始与其政府进行直接对话。这些制裁包括2017年对罗兴亚人的镇压，该镇压导致超过70万人逃往孟加拉国，美国称之为种族灭绝。

路透社称，最新会谈的重点是关闭在缅甸运营的诈骗中心，这些中心已经骗取了美国人数十亿美元。

仰光坦帕迪帕研究所所长钦佐温表示，敏昂莱寻求国际合法性的努力得到了中国、印度和泰国的协调支持，这三个国家都与缅甸接壤。这三个邻国都受到了战争的波及，例如边境附近的冲突、贸易中断和难民涌入。

钦佐温表示，这三个国家“在缅甸的最终走向中拥有最大的利益”，并且希望缅甸军方扶植的政府得到承认。“对他们所有人来说，利益考量都发挥了作用，”他说。

然而，日益增长的外交承认并没有对解决冲突起到多大作用。

尽管敏昂莱已邀请所有武装团体参加和平谈判，但战火仍在全国大部分地区肆虐。他的部队已发起攻势，试图夺回若开邦、钦邦、克钦邦、克伦邦和实皆省被反对派武装叛乱分子和少数民族武装团体占领的领土。他们得到了空袭行动和征兵活动的助力，后者已使他们的队伍壮大了数万人。中国也通过斡旋促成了军方与边境地区强大的少数民族武装团体之间的停火，从而提供了帮助。

不过，荷兰前外交官莱蒂西亚·范登阿苏姆表示，军方不太可能重新控制整个国家。

“那需要一支庞大的占领军，而不是像现在这样，一支控制特定区域的驻军，”她说。“这就是为什么敏昂莱……押注于在部分地区达成越来越多的临时停火协议，以便将部队调往他想继续作战的地区。”

范登阿苏姆表示，她觉得“非常惊讶”，东盟国家竟然要从被指控策划针对罗兴亚人犯罪的人手中遣返罗兴亚人。

缅甸长期以来一直拒绝承认罗兴亚人的公民身份，因此尚不清楚缅甸是否会接纳他们为国民。而且，由于他们的家园——若开邦的大部分地区现在都被若开族武装“阿拉干军”控制，他们的未来去向也远不明朗。

“这是盲人跟盲人说话，”她说。

“低成本，高光学性能”

敏昂莱还做出了其他姿态。

在8月访问泰国前不久，他允许红十字国际委员会（ICRC）会见了昂山素季，这位文职领导人于2021年被他推翻。这位81岁的诺贝尔奖得主自政变以来一直被单独监禁，红十字国际委员会8月3日的访问使她多年来首次公开露面。

悉尼大学研究员赛基·辛索称此举是“低成本、高调的姿态，而非真正的政治开放”。他表示，此次访问仅仅证实了昂山素季还活着，“仅此而已”。

他指出，尽管东盟领导人铺设红地毯，但军方的空袭仍在继续，包括9月28日对若开邦一个市场的袭击，造成约50人死亡。

他表示，持续不断的袭击是“软性外交没有产生任何威慑作用的最有力证据”。

赛基辛索还警告说，外国访问所赋予的合法性将进一步助长军方的胆量。

他说：“鉴于威慑力几乎完全缺失，制裁执行不力，东盟转向重新参与，以及继续通过中国和俄罗斯获得武器和燃料，军方有充分的结构性动机继续升级冲突，尤其是在实皆省和若开邦等争议地区，因为这些地区的军方控制力最弱。”

现在很大程度上取决于菲律宾和新加坡，这两个国家分别是东盟现任和即将上任的轮值主席国。

亚洲人权和劳工倡导组织主任菲尔·罗伯逊表示，两国必须制定一项议程，坚决抵制该地区其他国家要求“缅甸完全回归”的请求，并继续推进该集团的五点和平计划。

他还敦促美国、英国、加拿大、澳大利亚和欧盟采取有针对性的制裁措施，例如禁止航空燃油，而不是将“整个缅甸难题”留给区域集团处理。

他补充说：“无论是通过增加普遍管辖权案件，还是通过某种突破将缅甸将军们移送国际刑事法院，国际问责现在比以往任何时候都更加紧迫。”

扎希娜·拉希德 (Zaheena Rasheed) 在马来西亚吉隆坡进行报道和撰稿。