US, Iran engaged in tanker war: Where is the months-long conflict headed?

The US and Iran attack tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, as the two sides try to exert control over the strategic waterway.

Vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of the port city of Bandar Abbas in southern Iran on September 5, 2026 [AFP]

The United States and Iran have escalated tit-for-tat attacks in the past 24 hours, with Washington targeting three Iranian oil tankers and Tehran hitting tankers and firing a ballistic missile towards US warships patrolling near the Strait of Hormuz.

Experts have dubbed Iran’s targeting of the two US aircraft carriers a “calculated escalation”, as the months-long fighting is increasingly playing out at sea, with both sides trying to exert control over the strategic strait – a global chokepoint used by Tehran as leverage in the war.

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The attacks on tankers come as the US claims that an increasing volume of oil has started to flow through the strait, though the exact figures are still debatable, while the naval blockade of Iranian ports continues.

The latest exchanges further dim hopes for a de-escalation through diplomacy as the US-Israel war on Iran has disrupted energy supplies and slowed economic growth around the world.

So, what do we know about the latest tanker wars, and where is the conflict headed?

What do we know about the latest attacks on tankers?

US Central Command (CENTCOM) said its forces struck three Iranian vessels, including a tanker off Kharg Island, the hub through which Iran exported 90 percent of its crude before the war.

Another tanker was struck near Jask, and an unladen vessel was hit in the Gulf of Oman after its crew was told to abandon ship.

CENTCOM said the attacks followed Iranian ballistic missile launches against a US aircraft carrier and navy destroyer, which it said successfully evaded the strikes. No US personnel were injured.

“If you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost — taking out three of yours,” CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper said.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it launched “several ballistic missiles” at the aircraft carrier and destroyer, accusing them of “harassing Iranian ships” and taking part in a naval blockade.

“The Iranians did not only target two ordinary warships – they targeted a missile destroyer and, remarkably, an aircraft carrier … the backbone of the American campaign against Iran,” defence analyst Wolfgang Pusztai told Al Jazeera.

“This is a very, very significant development, and it doesn’t come as a surprise that the Americans retaliated.”

Iran then said its forces also targeted three oil tankers travelling through what it called an “unauthorised route” in the Strait of Hormuz and three US-linked vessels elsewhere.

In a statement carried by Iranian broadcaster IRIB, the IRGC navy warned all vessels in the Gulf or near the Strait of Hormuz not to be “deceived” by the US military and to “refrain from any suspicious movement aimed at transiting unauthorised waterways”.

“Otherwise, you will be targeted,” it said.

On Sunday, Iran claimed it struck an unmanned US vessel trying to enter the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Associated Press news agency.

Why are they attacking tankers?

Washington claimed the Iranian tankers it struck were part of a multibillion-dollar shadow network financing the IRGC and its regional allies.

Iran has long relied partly on a shadow fleet to circumvent sanctions and sell oil, a source of revenue that has become more important since the US began blockading Iranian ports in April.

Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supplies flowed, in retaliation for the US-Israeli attacks that began on February 28. Some 20 million barrels of oil flowed daily before the war began.

People on a boat take pictures of vessels as they transit the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran, on September 5, 2026 [AFP]

Hassan Ghashghavi, a lawmaker and spokesman for the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission, said the attacks on US warships were part of “an existential war with America”, arguing that Washington’s naval blockade “should never have existed” in the first place.

“Naturally, they have acted militarily in violation of all international laws,” he told Al Jazeera, adding that “because America is far from us, it does not see this war as existential”.

Meanwhile, the US has continued to build pressure on Iran to open the key waterway, both militarily and economically.

Last month, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a raft of economic measures to target Tehran’s financial interests across the world.

Bessent said the US would target all of Iran’s sources of revenue, including oil, to prevent other countries and companies from doing business with Tehran.

This comes despite US assertions of normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington insisting the waterway is open and that dozens of ships carrying millions of barrels of oil transit it each day.

Last week, Bessent claimed that some 17 million barrels of crude oil a day had been shipped out recently, according to a report in the United Kingdom’s The Times newspaper. Al Jazeera, however, could not independently verify the claims in the report.

President Donald Trump claimed last month that the US was in “total control” of the strait.

Yet figures from marine analytics firm Kpler show only six vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday, 11 on Tuesday and five on Monday, with a 10-day average of just 13 vessels per day.

What is the latest with oil prices?

The attacks are adding to concerns about global energy supplies.

Brent crude futures closed on Friday at $96.28 a barrel, their highest level since July 24, up from roughly $70 before the war.

Predictably, US oil and gas prices have also skyrocketed, coming at a crucial time for Trump as Americans head to the polls for midterm elections in November.

Diesel hit a new record price in the US on Friday, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon ($1.55 per litre) for the first time ever. Polls have repeatedly suggested a majority of Americans oppose the war, which has also plunged Trump’s popularity.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted in late August found that only 31 percent of Americans back the war, while 63 percent are against it.

The same polling suggested Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 33 percent, down from 40 percent since the fighting began.

Where is the conflict headed?

The renewed exchanges of strikes between Iran and the US mark an escalation in the six-month-long conflict, according to the director of the Middle East studies programme at George Washington University, Sina Azodi.

Azodi told Al Jazeera that neither side will “cave in” because it “will not look good on them, so the only option is to escalate”.

He said unless there is a political settlement, the war will continue.

“There’s going to be more clashes between the Iranians and the Americans. There can be miscalculations. There can be more civilian casualties”, especially on the Iranian side, Azodi said.

“The [US] secretary of defence can send more troops to the region, but I don’t think the Iranians are going to back down. They’re going to resist that blockade and impose further costs on the United States.”

He said the goal of the US and Iran is to force the other to back down. “The winner is going to be the one that can accept more costs and punishment,” Azodi said.

Commenting on Iran’s strategy, Ali Akbar Dareini, an analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies in Tehran, echoed Azodi, saying the US attacks on Iranian oil tankers are a “big issue” that Iran cannot afford to let “go unanswered”.

“Does it make Iran surrender? No, it compels Iran. It incentivises Iran to lash out and retaliate” more harshly, Dareini told Al Jazeera.

He said the US naval blockade, coupled with sanctions, is inflicting severe pain on Iran, but added the latter has plans to counter it. Iran cannot tolerate this naval blockade to continue, so Iran is already making preparations to break the siege.

“At the same time, Iran definitely has its own plans to make sure that oil prices will shoot up over $100 per barrel,” Dareini said.

美国和伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡袭击油轮，双方试图控制这条战略水道。

2026年9月5日，船只通过伊朗南部港口城市阿巴斯港附近的霍尔木兹海峡。[法新社]

过去 24 小时内，美国和伊朗的针锋相对的袭击事件不断升级，华盛顿袭击了三艘伊朗油轮，而德黑兰则袭击了油轮，并向在霍尔木兹海峡附近巡逻的美国军舰发射了一枚弹道导弹。

专家们将伊朗袭击美国两艘航空母舰的行为称为“蓄意升级”，因为这场持续数月的战斗越来越多地发生在海上，双方都试图控制这条战略要道——德黑兰利用这条全球咽喉要道作为战争筹码。

问题 1/3：为什么特朗普现在又威胁要打击伊朗的镐山？

列表 2/3：也门塔伊兹附近胡塞武装导弹袭击造成至少四名平民死亡。

伊朗总统佩泽什基安呼吁团结，美国加大经济压力（共3条，此为第3条）

在美国声称越来越多的石油开始通过霍尔木兹海峡流动之际（尽管确切数字仍有争议），美国对伊朗港口的海上封锁仍在继续。

最新的交锋进一步削弱了通过外交途径缓和局势的希望，因为美以对伊朗的战争扰乱了能源供应，减缓了世界各地的经济增长。

那么，我们对最近的油轮战争了解多少？这场冲突将走向何方？

关于最近发生的油轮袭击事件，我们了解多少？

美国中央司令部（CENTCOM）称，其部队袭击了三艘伊朗船只，其中包括一艘在哈尔格岛附近航行的油轮。战前，伊朗90%的原油都是通过哈尔格岛出口的。

另一艘油轮在贾斯克附近被击中，一艘空载船只在阿曼湾被击中，此前船员被告知弃船。

美国中央司令部称，此次袭击是在伊朗向美国一艘航空母舰和一艘海军驱逐舰发射弹道导弹之后发生的，但这两艘舰艇成功躲过了导弹袭击。没有美方人员受伤。

“如果你们攻击我们的两艘军舰，我们将给你们造成更高的经济损失——击沉你们的三艘军舰，”中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀海军上将说。

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）表示，他们向该航空母舰和驱逐舰发射了“数枚弹道导弹”，指责它们“骚扰伊朗船只”并参与海上封锁。

“伊朗人不仅袭击了两艘普通军舰，还袭击了一艘导弹驱逐舰，更令人震惊的是，还袭击了一艘航空母舰……这是美国对伊朗军事行动的支柱，”国防分析家沃尔夫冈·普斯泰告诉半岛电视台。

“这是一个非常非常重要的事态发展，美国人进行报复并不令人意外。”

伊朗随后表示，其部队还袭击了三艘途经霍尔木兹海峡所谓“未经授权航线”的油轮，以及在其他地方袭击了三艘与美国有关的船只。

伊朗广播电视台IRIB发表声明称，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军警告所有在波斯湾或霍尔木兹海峡附近的船只不要被美国军方“欺骗”，并“避免任何旨在穿越未经授权水道的可疑行动”。

“否则，你将成为攻击目标，”它说道。

据美联社报道，伊朗周日声称，它袭击了一艘试图进入霍尔木兹海峡的美国无人船只。

他们为什么要攻击油轮？

华盛顿方面声称，其袭击的伊朗油轮是为伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队及其地区盟友提供资金的数十亿美元秘密网络的一部分。

伊朗长期以来一直依靠一支影子舰队来规避制裁并出售石油，自美国4月份开始封锁伊朗港口以来，石油收入变得更加重要。

为了报复美国和以色列于2月28日发动的袭击，伊朗有效地封锁了霍尔木兹海峡，全球20%的石油供应都要经过这里。战争爆发前，每天约有2000万桶石油经由此海峡运输。

2026年9月5日，在伊朗阿巴斯港附近的霍尔木兹海峡，船上的人们正在拍摄过往船只的照片。[法新社]

伊朗议会国家安全委员会发言人、议员哈桑·加什加维表示，对美国军舰的袭击是“与美国进行的一场生死之战”的一部分，他认为华盛顿的海上封锁“从一开始就不应该存在”。

“他们自然采取了违反所有国际法的军事行动，”他告诉半岛电视台，“因为美国离我们很远，所以它并不认为这场战争是生死攸关的。”

与此同时，美国继续从军事和经济两方面向伊朗施压，要求其开放这条关键水道。

上个月，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特宣布了一系列经济措施，旨在打击德黑兰在全球的金融利益。

贝森特表示，美国将打击伊朗的所有收入来源，包括石油，以阻止其他国家和公司与德黑兰进行商业往来。

尽管美国声称霍尔木兹海峡局势正常，华盛顿方面坚称该水道畅通，每天都有数十艘载有数百万桶石油的船只通过该水道，但这种情况依然存在。

据英国《泰晤士报》报道，贝森特上周声称，近期每天约有1700万桶原油被运出。然而，半岛电视台无法独立核实该报道中的说法。

唐纳德·特朗普总统上个月声称，美国“完全控制”了该海峡。

然而，海洋分析公司 Kpler 的数据显示，周三只有 6 艘船穿越海峡，周二 11 艘，周一 5 艘，10 天平均每天只有 13 艘船。

石油价格最新走势如何？

这些袭击事件加剧了人们对全球能源供应的担忧。

布伦特原油期货周五收于每桶 96.28 美元，为 7 月 24 日以来的最高水平，高于战前的约 70 美元。

不出所料，美国石油和天然气价格也大幅上涨，这对特朗普来说是一个关键时刻，因为美国人将在 11 月参加中期选举。

周五，美国柴油价格创下新纪录，平均价格飙升至每加仑5.85美元（每升1.55美元），创历史新高。民调多次显示，大多数美国民众反对这场战争，这也导致特朗普的支持率大幅下滑。

路透社/益普索在 8 月下旬进行的一项调查发现，只有 31% 的美国人支持这场战争，而 63% 的人反对这场战争。

同一项民调显示，特朗普的支持率已从冲突开始前的 40% 降至 33%。

这场冲突将走向何方？

乔治·华盛顿大学中东研究项目主任西纳·阿佐迪表示，伊朗和美国之间再次发生空袭，标志着这场持续六个月的冲突升级。

阿佐迪告诉半岛电视台，双方都不会“让步”，因为这“对他们来说都不好看，所以唯一的选择就是升级冲突”。

他说，除非达成政治解决方案，否则战争将继续下去。

阿佐迪说：“伊朗和美国之间将会发生更多冲突。可能会出现误判，可能会造成更多平民伤亡”，尤其是在伊朗方面。

“美国国防部长可以向该地区增派军队，但我认为伊朗不会退缩。他们会抵抗封锁，并给美国造成更大的损失。”

他表示，美国和伊朗的目标是迫使对方让步。“最终的赢家将是能够承受更大代价和惩罚的一方，”阿佐迪说道。

德黑兰战略研究中心分析师阿里·阿克巴尔·达雷尼在评论伊朗的战略时，与阿佐迪的观点一致，称美国袭击伊朗油轮是一个“大问题”，伊朗不能对此“置之不理”。

达雷尼告诉半岛电视台：“这会让伊朗投降吗？不会，这反而会迫使伊朗采取行动。这反而会激励伊朗进行更猛烈的反击和报复。”

他表示，美国的海上封锁加上制裁，正给伊朗造成严重伤害，但他补充说，伊朗已有应对计划。伊朗不能容忍这种海上封锁继续下去，因此伊朗已经在为突破封锁做准备。

“与此同时，伊朗肯定也有自己的计划，以确保油价飙升至每桶100美元以上，”达雷尼说。