Job-switching used to be one of the best defenses against inflation. That advantage is disappearing

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In years past, when Shannon Ratcliff switched jobs, she often got more than career advancement — she got a nice little pay bump.

But this year, her new job came with a $20,000 pay cut.

The job is a great opportunity, she said, and she’s hoping to advance and close that financial gap. However, the salary drop-off is still tough to stomach for her family of five at a time when prices are rising faster than normal.

“Everything is getting more expensive, but the amount of money we bring home is less and less,” she said.

The US labor market has lost some of its oomph, leaving workers like Ratcliff with less leverage to boost their income and keep pace with inflation: the pay premium for switching jobs.

Pair that with five years of stubborn inflation, and workers are losing even more ground.

In September, the median increase in base pay for job changers was 4.8% versus 3% for job stayers, according to data from payroll giant ADP.

That gap has not surpassed 2 percentage points for nearly two years. For context, it was north of 7 percentage points during the post-pandemic jobs boom and sat comfortably above 3.5 percentage points pre-pandemic.

“Switching a job gives you a one-time burst, but it still is not enough to keep up long term with inflation at the levels we’re seeing now,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.

Last month, overall inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 3.7%. Job switchers aren’t seeing their pay gains completely eroded by inflation, but they don’t have the breathing room that they once did (pre-pandemic, that difference was roughly 5 percentage points).

Dynamism is an important ingredient in a healthy labor market (and healthy economy, for that matter).

The ability for employees to find the best opportunities for themselves and for employers to find the best candidates for the job help to drive innovation, which drives productivity, which drives growth, Richardson has said.

But instead, the labor market has been in a period of relative stasis, turnover data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows.

The hires rate (hiring as a percentage of total employment), an indicator of labor demand, has plodded along at decade-low levels, excluding the pandemic. The quits rate, which represents workers’ confidence in their ability to find a new job, remains near a six-year low.

Job growth last year was one of the weakest on record. Employment gains have picked up this year, with the economy adding 68,000 per month versus fewer than 10,000 per month in 2025. However, they remain well below historical averages, BLS data shows.

Hiring has been stunted by a combination of factors including pervasive uncertainty, a shrinking labor supply, higher oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty, stubborn inflation, rising borrowing costs, and the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence technologies .

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That has left workers increasingly worried about their job security: In September, Glassdoor’s Employee Confidence Index fell to a new record low – its third such nadir in 2026 for the 10-year-old index.

The bottom-barrel sentiment also reflects a buildup of workers having to endure six years filled with crises, including a global pandemic, Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor said at the time of the report’s release in late September.

The process of switching jobs has never been a costless endeavor, Richardson said.

“You have to update your resume; you’ve got to get on a [job posting site]; you’ve got to do multiple interviews, which may mean taking personal days,” Richardson said. “But particularly in a low-hire, low-fire labor market, it takes longer when employers are being selective.”

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That’s especially true when the labor market waters are choppy.

“Is a 2% (pay bump) worth it for all the other stuff you have to do to get onboarded? Is 3% worth it?,” she said. “You can certainly say 16% is worth it, but there’s got to be a de minimis in which ‘I might just stay where I am in this slightly volatile, I’m not sure what’s going to happen’ economy. Sticking with the same employer seems to be what people are generally doing.”

Shannon Ratcliff’s job search took six months and six days – roughly the national average, BLS data shows – after being laid off in early December last year. Having little luck in getting interviews for finance and accounting positions, Ratcliff pivoted to human resources and obtained certifications in the process, which helped her land the role she has today.

For Jorena Collins, a senior technical writer in Colorado, a “brutal” nine-month job hunt ended with a contract position that pays about half of what she made two years ago.

“I’ve built a career from nothing twice now, but the market isn’t what it was; and it’s honestly been very discouraging,” she wrote to CNN in response to a callout on job-switching.

For her first career, Collins had worked her way through college to obtain a degree in physics that afforded her opportunities as an engineer. After stepping away from the workforce to raise her children, the gap limited her engineering opportunities, and so she rebuilt her career as a technical writer.

“I worked my way up through some of the biggest names in tech and eventually earned more than I ever had as an engineer,” she wrote. “That was a couple of years ago. Now with AI taking on more of the technical writing, it’s been difficult to find work.”

In a follow-up phone interview, Collins talked further about the toll taken.

“The last nine months have been just nerve-wracking,” she said, as some emotion hit her voice. During that time, some medical bills had accumulated, and she’s now in a place where she’s making too much for Medicaid but not enough for insurance.

She said she’s grateful for the position she’s found, especially as her field – and many others – is being reshaped by the adoption of AI, yet another force that job seekers have to contend with when looking for new roles.

Collins, who uses AI in her personal and work environments, said she sees great potential from it but added that the technology needs more governance and guardrails to protect against any dangers as well as to handle the fallout of job loss.

“I think the whole world is going to be in the same position. I think I’m being affected first. I think we’ll get better at switching (jobs) as the world changes – and adapting,” she said. “But right now, it’s difficult to try and guess what job might last a few years before AI takes over.”

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过去，香农·拉特克利夫换工作时，她通常得到的不仅仅是职业晋升，还有一笔可观的加薪。

但今年，她的新工作却让她减薪了 2 万美元。

她说，这份工作是个绝佳的机会，她希望能够晋升并弥补经济上的差距。然而，在物价飞涨的当下，对于她这个五口之家来说，收入的下降仍然难以接受。

“所有东西都在涨价，但我们挣回家的钱却越来越少，”她说。

美国劳动力市场失去了一些活力，使得像拉特克利夫这样的工人更难提高收入，跟上通货膨胀的步伐：换工作的溢价。

再加上五年来的顽固通货膨胀，工人们的处境更加艰​​难。

根据薪资巨头 ADP 的数据，9 月份跳槽者的基本工资中位数增长了 4.8%，而留任者的基本工资中位数增长了 3%。

近两年来，这一差距从未超过2个百分点。作为对比，在疫情后的就业繁荣时期，这一差距超过7个百分点，而在疫情前也稳定在3.5个百分点以上。

ADP首席经济学家内拉·理查森表示：“换工作可以给你带来一次性的收入增长，但从长远来看，这仍然不足以应对我们目前看到的通货膨胀水平。”

上个月，以消费者价格指数衡量的整体通胀率按年率计算上涨了3.7%。虽然跳槽者的工资增长并未完全被通胀抵消，但他们不像以前那样有回旋余地了（疫情前，这一差距约为5个百分点）。

活力是健康劳动力市场（以及健康经济）的重要组成部分。

理查森表示，员工能够找到最适合自己的机会，雇主能够找到最适合工作的候选人，这有助于推动创新，从而提高生产力，进而推动增长。

但劳工统计局的人员流动数据显示，劳动力市场却一直处于相对停滞状态。

招聘率（招聘人数占总就业人数的百分比）是衡量劳动力需求的指标，除疫情影响外，一直徘徊在十年来的最低水平。离职率反映了员工对找到新工作的信心，也接近六年来的最低水平。

去年的就业增长是史上最疲软的年份之一。今年就业增长有所回升，目前每月新增就业岗位6.8万个，而预计到2025年每月新增就业岗位将不足1万个。然而，美国劳工统计局（BLS）的数据显示，目前的就业增长仍远低于历史平均水平。

招聘受到多种因素的制约，包括普遍存在的不确定性、劳动力供应减少、油价上涨、地缘政治不确定性、顽固的通货膨胀、借贷成本上升以及人工智能技术的快速普及。

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这让员工越来越担心自己的工作保障：9 月份，Glassdoor 的员工信心指数跌至历史新低——这是该指数推出 10 年以来在 2026 年的第三个低点。

Glassdoor 首席经济学家 Daniel Zhao 在 9 月下旬发布该报告时表示，这种极度悲观的情绪也反映出，工人们不得不忍受六年来的危机，其中包括全球疫情。

理查森说，换工作从来都不是一件没有成本的事情。

“你得更新简历；你得去招聘网站找工作；你得参加多次面试，这可能意味着要请病假，”理查森说。“但尤其是在招聘和解雇都很低的劳动力市场中，当雇主精挑细选时，找工作所需的时间就会更长。”

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在劳动力市场动荡不安的时候，这一点尤其如此。

“为了那2%的涨薪，你还得做那么多入职手续，这值得吗？3%呢？”她说道，“你当然可以说16%的涨薪很值得，但总得有个底线，在这个经济形势略显动荡、前途未卜的时期，我可能还是会选择留在原地。看来，人们普遍的做法是继续留在同一家公司。”

香农·拉特克利夫（Shannon Ratcliff）去年12月初被裁员后，花了六个月零六天的时间才找到工作——根据美国劳工统计局（BLS）的数据，这与全国平均水平大致相同。由于在金融和会计职位上屡屡碰壁，拉特克利夫转而投身人力资源领域，并在求职过程中获得了相关认证，最终帮助她找到了现在的工作。

对于科罗拉多州的高级技术作家乔雷娜·柯林斯来说，长达九个月的“残酷”求职过程最终以一份合同工职位告终，而这份合同工的收入只有她两年前的一半左右。

“我已经两次白手起家，建立了自己的事业，但市场已经不如从前了；说实话，这非常令人沮丧，”她在回复 CNN 关于跳槽的采访时写道。

科林斯的第一份职业是边工作边完成大学学业，获得了物理学学位，这使她有机会成为一名工程师。在离开职场照顾孩子之后，这段时间限制了她从事工程领域的发展，因此她重新转型，成为了一名技术作家。

“我一路从科技巨头公司晋升，最终收入比我做工程师时还要高，”她写道。“那是几年前的事了。现在人工智能承担了越来越多的技术写作工作，找工作变得很困难。”

在随后的电话采访中，柯林斯进一步谈到了所受到的伤害。

“过去九个月真是令人提心吊胆，”她说着，声音里带着一丝哽咽。这段时间里，她累积了一些医疗账单，现在她的收入超过了医疗补助（Medicaid）的门槛，但又不足以购买医疗保险。

她说，她很感激自己找到的这份工作，尤其是在她的领域以及许多其他领域都因人工智能的采用而发生重塑的情况下，而人工智能又是求职者在寻找新工作时必须应对的另一股力量。

科林斯在个人和工作环境中都使用人工智能，她说她看到了人工智能的巨大潜力，但她补充说，这项技术需要更多的监管和保障措施，以防止任何危险，并应对失业带来的影响。

“我认为全世界都会面临同样的情况。我觉得我受到的影响最大。随着世界的变化，我认为我们会更擅长转换工作，并适应变化，”她说。“但现在，很难预测在人工智能取代我们之前，哪些工作还能维持几年。”