How the US-Iran war upended two critical global trade routes

The war between the United States and Iran has upended the global oil market by severely disrupting the flow of oil through two critical waterways: the Strait of Hormuz and, in recent weeks, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

Iran is now stepping up attacks on tankers transiting Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, curtailing the volume of oil exiting the region and keeping global crude prices north of $100 a barrel.

There have been 12 reported attacks on vessels in or near Hormuz in the past week, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, which monitors maritime security in the region. And, earlier this week, two cargo ships sank after attacks by unknown projectiles in separate incidents.

Analysts say intensifying attacks by Iran are in response to the large quantities of oil that have managed to exit Hormuz in recent weeks. The US military has led an effective operation to ferry oil across the strait by assisting “dark” transits – tankers sailing with their transponders turned off and shuttling oil to ships waiting in the Gulf of Oman. Meanwhile, Iran continues to struggle to sail its own tankers through the waterway because of a US naval blockade.

The conflict, now in its eighth month, has also widened to include fighting between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen. The Houthis have targeted Saudi oil tankers transiting the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and, in recent days, launched deadly strikes on Riyadh’s main international airport.

Two cargo ships sunk in Strait of Hormuz as Iran ramps up attacks in run-up to midterms

The crisis will have long-term ramifications on the global oil market, say analysts.

Oil-importing countries increasingly understand they must “structurally reduce their oil consumption” to become less vulnerable to external shocks, Georg Zachmann, a senior fellow at think tank Bruegel, told CNN.

That, alongside other measures, could help “shield (them) from this increasingly uncertain world,” he said.

The Bab al-Mandeb Strait became more strategically important after the war disrupted the neighboring Strait of Hormuz.

At its peak, around 4.5 million barrels of crude per day were exported from the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu, with the bulk – about 3 million barrels per day – exiting via Bab al-Mandeb, according to Richard Bronze, co-founder of Energy Aspects. But those flows “collapsed” after the Houthi threat started escalating this summer, he said.

Johannes Rauball, senior crude analyst at Kpler, said that if the Houthis begin threatening ships from all countries, “This would really create another blow for crude markets. It would really push prices higher again, really tighten balances.”

But after an attack last month by drones from inside Iraq on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline – which pumps crude toward the country’s Red Sea ports – Riyadh pivoted quickly, stepping up crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz via the US military-assisted shuttle operation.

US President Donald Trump said Iran was probably behind the September attack, with Iran-backed militia groups known to operate inside Iraq. Iran’s foreign ministry has “categorically denied” the accusation. The East-West pipeline is now back online, according to several reports .

Asian countries — the biggest buyers of Saudi oil — have borne the brunt of the crisis during the war, but they have adapted by cutting consumption . China has also greatly reduced its imports by tapping into its strategic reserves. The crisis has also pushed some Middle Eastern countries to explore new export routes through yet-to-be-built pipelines.

“The longer this conflict drags on, the less leverage Iran actually has, because other countries are able to create bypass routes,” Rauball, at Kpler, said.

CNN’s Tim Lister, Aida Karimi, Jessie Yeung, Isaac Lee, Teele Rebane and David Goldman contributed reporting.

美国和伊朗之间的战争严重扰乱了全球石油市场，严重阻碍了两条重要水道的石油运输：霍尔木兹海峡，以及最近几周的曼德海峡。

伊朗现在加大了对途经霍尔木兹海峡和波斯湾的油轮的袭击力度，减少了该地区的石油出口量，使全球原油价格保持在每桶 100 美元以上。

据负责监测该地区海上安全的英国海事贸易行动机构称，过去一周，霍尔木兹海峡及其附近海域共报告了12起针对船只的袭击事件。此外，本周早些时候，两艘货船在不同的事件中遭到不明飞行物袭击后沉没。

分析人士称，伊朗加大袭击力度是为了回应近几周来大量石油从霍尔木兹海峡流出。美国军方主导了一项卓有成效的石油运输行动，通过协助“暗船”穿越海峡——即油轮关闭应答器，将石油转运至停泊在阿曼湾的船只——来运送石油。与此同时，由于美国海军的封锁，伊朗的油轮仍然难以通过该水道。

这场冲突已持续八个月，并已扩大到沙特阿拉伯与伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装之间的战斗。胡塞武装袭击了途经曼德海峡的沙特油轮，并在近日对利雅得的主要国际机场发动了致命袭击。

两艘货船在霍尔木兹海峡沉没，伊朗在中期选举前夕加大了袭击力度。

分析人士表示，这场危机将对全球石油市场产生长期影响。

布鲁盖尔智库高级研究员格奥尔格·扎赫曼告诉 CNN，石油进口国越来越意识到，为了减少受到外部冲击的脆弱性，它们必须“从结构上减少石油消费”。

他表示，这些措施与其他措施相结合，可以帮助“保护（他们）免受这个日益不确定的世界的影响”。

战争破坏了邻近的霍尔木兹海峡，使得曼德海峡的战略地位更加重要。

据能源咨询公司Energy Aspects联合创始人理查德·布朗兹（Richard Bronze）称，沙特红海港口延布的原油出口量高峰时期约为每日450万桶，其中大部分（约300万桶/日）经由曼德海峡出口。但他表示，今年夏天胡塞武装威胁升级后，这些原油流量“骤减”。

Kpler高级原油分析师约翰内斯·劳巴尔表示，如果胡塞武装开始威胁所有国家的船只，“这将对原油市场造成又一次打击。这将再次推高油价，并真正加剧供需失衡。”

但上个月，沙特阿拉伯的东西输油管道（向该国红海港口输送原油）遭到伊拉克境内无人机袭击后，利雅得迅速调整策略，通过美国军方协助的穿梭运输行动，加大了经由霍尔木兹海峡的原油出口量。

美国总统特朗普表示，伊朗很可能是9月份袭击事件的幕后黑手，因为已知有伊朗支持的民兵组织在伊拉克境内活动。伊朗外交部“断然否认”了这一指控。据多家媒体报道，东西输油管道现已恢复运营。

亚洲国家是沙特石油的最大买家，在战争期间首当其冲地承受了危机冲击，​​但它们通过削减消费做出了调整。中国也通过动用战略储备大幅减少了进口。这场危机还促使一些中东国家探索通过尚未建成的管道开辟新的出口路线。

“这场冲突持续的时间越长，伊朗的实际影响力就越小，因为其他国家能够开辟绕过路线，”Kpler公司的Rauball说。

CNN 的 Tim Lister、Aida Karimi、Jessie Yeung、Isaac Lee、Teele Rebane 和 David Goldman 也参与了报道。