Korea narrows current account surplus gap with Taiwan amid chip boom

Korea is rapidly narrowing its current account surplus gap with Taiwan as a share of GDP, with some banks expecting Korea to overtake Taiwan this year. The improvement is being driven by stronger semiconductor exports, and the average forecast from eight foreign investment banks for Korea rose to 16 percent in August from 14.7 percent in July. The country’s cumulative exports have also surpassed last year’s annual record, putting $1 trillion in annual exports within reach.

Nomura expects Korea’s current account surplus to reach 19.7 percent of GDP, while Goldman Sachs projects 18.7 percent and Citi 18.2 percent.

Seven investment banks expect Taiwan’s current account surplus to average 20.6 percent of GDP this year, unchanged from their July forecast.

Korea’s cumulative exports reached $709.4 billion as of Saturday, surpassing last year’s annual record of $709.3 billion.

Semiconductor exports totaled $281.2 billion in the January-August period, up 169.6 percent from a year earlier and accounting for 40.6 percent of total exports.

Published Sep 6, 2026 3:42 pm KST

Updated Sep 6, 2026 4:40 pm KST

Exports already surpass last year's record at $709.4 billion, $1 trillion in sight

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix chips are loaded onto a Korean Air cargo aircraft bound for Hong Kong at Incheon International Airport, July 30. Joint Press Corps

Korea is rapidly closing the gap with Taiwan in its current account surplus as a share of gross domestic product, with some global investment banks expecting Korea to overtake Taiwan this year, analysts said Sunday.

According to data from the Korea Center for International Finance, the average forecast from eight foreign investment banks for Korea's current account surplus as a share of GDP rose to 16 percent in August from 14.7 percent in July.

The banks are Barclays, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citi, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, HSBC, Nomura and UBS.

The increase came as several banks significantly raised their forecasts on stronger expectations for semiconductor exports. Nomura expects Korea's current account surplus to reach 19.7 percent of GDP, while Goldman Sachs projects 18.7 percent and Citi cites 18.2 percent.

The ratio shows the size of Korea's current account surplus relative to the size of its economy, allowing for comparisons between economies of different sizes.

Seven investment banks expect Taiwan's current account surplus to average 20.6 percent of GDP this year, unchanged from their July forecast. Barclays did not provide a forecast for Taiwan.

For comparison, the six banks that provided forecasts for both countries put Korea's average at 18.1 percent, compared with 21.5 percent for Taiwan.

That marks a sharp narrowing from last year, when the same six banks forecast Korea's surplus at 7 percent of GDP and Taiwan's at 17.5 percent, a gap of more than 10 percentage points.

Notably, JP Morgan expects Korea to overtake Taiwan this year, forecasting current account surpluses of 18.1 percent of GDP for Korea and 13 percent for Taiwan.

Semiconductor chips are displayed at Samsung Electornics' booth at Nano Korea 2026 held at KINTEX Exhibition Center in Goyang, Gyeonggi Province, July 8. Yonhap

A current account surplus-to-GDP ratio approaching 20 percent would be nearly double Korea's previous high of 10.1 percent recorded in 1998, according to data from the Bank of Korea.

The previous high came in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, when a sharp contraction in nominal GDP led to a so-called "recession-driven surplus."

The current situation is different, with the surplus ratio rising on the back of stronger exports rather than a contraction in domestic demand.

"Korea's past increases in its current account surplus were driven largely by recessionary conditions. The current increase, however, is being driven by positive factors, including improved terms of trade and higher export values stemming from strong semiconductor performance," said Park Jeong-woo, an economist at Nomura Securities.

The widening current account surplus comes as Korea's chip exports surge on strong global demand for artificial intelligence-related products.

The country's cumulative exports reached $709.4 billion as of Saturday, surpassing the previous annual record of $709.3 billion set last year, according to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources and the Korea Customs Service.

If the momentum continues, Korea could reach $1 trillion in annual exports for the first time, customs authorities said.

Semiconductor exports were the main driver, with chip exports totaling $281.2 billion in the January-August period, up 169.6 percent from a year earlier and accounting for 40.6 percent of the country's total exports.

韩国经常账户盈余占GDP比重与台湾的差距正在迅速缩小，一些银行预计韩国今年将超过台湾。这一改善主要得益于半导体出口的强劲增长，八家外资银行对韩国半导体出口占GDP比重的平均预测值从7月份的14.7%上升至8月份的16%。韩国累计出口额也已超过去年的年度纪录，有望实现年出口额1万亿美元的目标。

野村证券预计韩国经常账户盈余将达到GDP的19.7%，高盛预测为18.7%，花旗银行预测为18.2%。

七家投资银行预计，台湾今年的经常账户盈余将平均占GDP的20.6%，与7月份的预测持平。

截至周六，韩国累计出口额达到7094亿美元，超过了去年创下的7093亿美元的年度纪录。

今年1月至8月，半导体出口总额达2812亿美元，比上年同期增长169.6%，占出口总额的40.6%。

发布于2026年9月6日下午3:42（韩国标准时间）

更新于2026年9月6日下午4:40（韩国标准时间）

出口额已超过去年的纪录，达到7094亿美元，1万亿美元指日可待。

7月30日，在仁川国际机场，三星电子和SK海力士的芯片被装载到一架飞往香港的大韩航空货机上。（联合新闻社）

分析人士周日表示，韩国经常账户盈余占国内生产总值比例方面正迅速缩小与台湾的差距，一些全球投资银行预计韩国今年将超过台湾。

根据韩国国际金融中心的数据，8 家外国投资银行对韩国经常账户盈余占 GDP 比例的平均预测从 7 月份的 14.7% 升至 8 月份的 16%。

这些银行包括巴克莱银行、美国银行美林证券、花旗银行、高盛集团、摩根大通银行、汇丰银行、野村证券和瑞银集团。

由于多家银行大幅上调了对半导体出口前景的预期，韩国经常账户盈余占GDP的比重有所上升。野村证券预计韩国经常账户盈余将达到GDP的19.7%，高盛预测为18.7%，花旗银行则预测为18.2%。

该比率显示了韩国经常账户盈余相对于其经济规模的大小，从而可以对不同规模的经济体进行比较。

七家投资银行预计，台湾今年的经常账户盈余平均占GDP的20.6%，与7月份的预测持平。巴克莱银行未对台湾做出预测。

相比之下，对两国进行预测的六家银行预测，韩国的平均水平为 18.1%，而台湾的平均水平为 21.5%。

这标志着与去年相比，差距大幅缩小。去年，这六家银行预测韩国的盈余占GDP的7%，台湾的盈余占GDP的17.5%，两者相差超过10个百分点。

值得注意的是，摩根大通预计韩国今年将超过台湾，预测韩国经常账户盈余占GDP的18.1%，台湾占GDP的13%。

7月8日，在京畿道高阳市KINTEX展览中心举行的2026年韩国纳米技术展（Nano Korea 2026）上，三星电子展位展示了半导体芯片。（韩联社）

根据韩国银行的数据，经常账户盈余占GDP的比重接近20%，将几乎是韩国1998年创下的10.1%历史最高纪录的两倍。

此前的最高点出现在亚洲金融危机之后，当时名义GDP急剧萎缩，导致所谓的“衰退驱动型盈余”。

目前的情况有所不同，由于出口走强而非国内需求萎缩，盈余比率上升。

野村证券经济学家朴正宇表示：“韩国过去经常账户盈余的增长主要是由经济衰退推动的。然而，目前的增长则是由积极因素驱动的，包括贸易条件的改善以及半导体行业强劲表现带来的出口额增长。”

由于全球对人工智能相关产品的需求强劲，韩国芯片出口激增，经常账户盈余不断扩大。

据韩国贸易、工业和资源部以及韩国海关总署的数据显示，截至周六，韩国累计出口额达到7094亿美元，超过了去年创下的7093亿美元的年度纪录。

海关当局表示，如果这种势头持续下去，韩国的年出口额可能首次达到1万亿美元。

半导体出口是主要驱动力，1月至8月期间芯片出口总额达2812亿美元，比上年同期增长169.6%，占该国出口总额的40.6%。