Analysts forecast BOK to hold benchmark rate unchanged at upcoming meeting: poll

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SEOUL, Oct. 18 (Yonhap) -- Local economic experts expect the Bank of Korea (BOK) to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting later this week, with a possible rate hike at its next meeting, a survey showed Sunday.

According to the survey on six economists conducted by Yonhap News Agency, all expected the BOK's Monetary Policy Board to hold the key rate steady at 3 percent at its meeting scheduled for Thursday.

They said the central bank needs time to assess market conditions after raising the benchmark rate twice in a row in July and August.

"Three consecutive rate hikes could place a significant burden on households and domestic companies," said Joo Won, a senior researcher at Hyundai Research Institute. "It is highly likely that the central bank will pause this time to assess the effects of previous rate hikes."

Park Seok-gil, an economist at JPMorgan Korea, expected that the BOK will thoroughly look into economic indicators, given the changes in economic conditions over the past two months.

He cited core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, falling to 2.8 percent in September from 3.4 percent the previous month. The Korean won's appreciation, with the currency hovering around 1,330 won against the U.S. dollar, has also helped offset higher oil prices, he said.

"Although growth momentum is strong and there is significant room to further raise this year's growth forecast, core inflation has stabilized to some extent and the exchange rate is holding steady in the 1,330 won range, so there is insufficient justification for an additional hike," said Ahn Jae-kyun, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities Co.

During a parliamentary audit last week, BOK Gov. Shin Hyun-song signaled a possible pause, saying, "When we conduct monetary policy, we always assess how much time economic agents need to adapt and evaluate their ability to do so."

Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov. Shin Hyun-song speaks during a press conference after holding a BOK Monetary Policy Board meeting at the BOK headquarters in Seoul on Aug. 27, 2026. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

The survey also showed that all six economists expect the BOK to raise the key rate again in November, as consumer price inflation is expected to remain well above its 2 percent target amid strong growth momentum supported by robust semiconductor exports.

"As growth driven by the semiconductor sector continues and inflationary pressures from high oil prices persist, the trend of interest rate hikes is likely to continue," said Ahn Ye-ha, a senior researcher at Kiwoom Securities Co.

Gov. Shin earlier reaffirmed the BOK's hawkish stance, signaling the possibility of further monetary tightening.

"Inflation is expected to remain above the target level for a considerable period," Shin said last week. "We plan to determine the timing and pace of additional hikes while closely monitoring inflation, economic trends and financial stability."

BOK chief stresses need to curb inflation amid AI boom, Mideast crisis

(2nd LD) BOK chief says back-to-back rate hikes bought time to respond to financial risks

(LEAD) BOK pressed to further raise key rate to track Fed's latest hike

Analysts forecast BOK to hold benchmark rate unchanged at upcoming meeting: poll

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首尔，10月18日（韩联社）——周日公布的一项调查显示，韩国当地经济专家预计，韩国央行将在本周晚些时候的政策会议上维持基准利率不变，但可能会在下次会议上加息。

据韩联社对六位经济学家进行的调查显示，所有受访者均预计韩国央行货币政策委员会将在周四的会议上维持基准利率在3%不变。

他们表示，央行在7月和8月连续两次提高基准利率后，需要时间来评估市场状况。

现代经济研究院高级研究员朱元表示：“连续三次加息可能会给家庭和国内企业带来沉重负担。央行这次很可能会暂停加息，以评估之前加息的影响。”

摩根大通韩国经济学家朴锡吉预计，鉴于过去两个月经济状况的变化，韩国央行将彻底研究各项经济指标。

他指出，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心通胀率从上月的3.4%降至9月份的2.8%。他还表示，韩元升值（目前韩元兑美元汇率徘徊在1330韩元左右）也有助于抵消油价上涨的影响。

韩国投资证券公司分析师安宰均表示：“尽管经济增长势头强劲，今年的增长预测还有很大的上调空间，但核心通胀已在一定程度上趋于稳定，汇率也稳定在 1330 韩元左右，因此没有足够的理由再次加息。”

上周在国会接受审计时，韩国央行行长申铉松暗示可能会暂停货币政策，他说：“我们在实施货币政策时，总是会评估经济主体需要多少时间来适应，并评估他们适应的能力。”

2026年8月27日，韩国央行行长申铉松在首尔韩国央行总部召开的货币政策委员会会议后举行新闻发布会。（联营照片）（韩联社）

调查还显示，所有六位经济学家都预计韩国央行将在11月再次提高基准利率，因为在强劲的半导体出口支撑下，消费者价格通胀预计将继续远高于2%的目标。

Kiwoom Securities Co. 高级研究员安艺夏表示：“随着半导体行业持续增长，以及高油价带来的通胀压力持续存在，加息趋势可能会继续下去。”

申宗宪早前重申了韩国央行的鹰派立场，暗示可能进一步收紧货币政策。

申宗宪上周表示：“预计通胀将在相当长的一段时间内保持在目标水平以上。我们将密切关注通胀、经济趋势和金融稳定性，以确定进一步加息的时机和力度。”

韩国央行行长强调，在人工智能蓬勃发展和中东危机的背景下，需要抑制通胀。

（第二条）韩国央行行长表示，连续加息为应对金融风险争取了时间。

（导语）韩国央行面临进一步上调关键利率的压力，以跟上美联储的最新加息步伐。

分析师预测韩国央行将在即将召开的会议上维持基准利率不变：民调