Israel’s ties with Europe are fraying. Can its election change that?

European condemnation of Netanyahu is mounting, but analysts say Israel’s election offers little prospect of a material change for Palestinians.

A protester holds a placard, depicting an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, covered in fake blood during the 'United for Palestine' demonstration in Berlin, Germany, October 10, 2026 [Christian Mang/Reuters]

While marking Israel’s 75th anniversary , Ursula von der Leyen offered solidarity.

“Europe and Israel are bound to be friends and allies,” the European Commission president said on April 23, 2023.

list 1 of 4 How do Iranians move money abroad to avoid US sanctions?

list 2 of 4 Jerry Seinfeld dances as pro-Palestine protesters interrupt show

list 3 of 4 India’s ‘Cockroach’ leaders jailed after entering ‘banned’ protest site

list 4 of 4 China’s exports surge amid AI-driven demand

That friendship reached beyond diplomacy. Israel played international football in Europe, competed in Eurovision and shared intelligence with European governments. Its weapons industry was woven into European production lines.

Those ties still exist, but have since become battlegrounds after Israel’s systematic destruction of Gaza, which has killed at least 74,000 Palestinians.

European countries have withdrawn from Eurovision over Israel’s participation. European footballers have refused to play the Israeli team. Some declarations of friendship have been recast as condemnation.

Ireland and Spain have long led criticism of Israel’s oppression of Palestinians.

At the recent UN General Assembly, Ireland’s Prime Minister Micheal Martin said Israel’s actions in Gaza “will shame the world”, while Spain’s Pedro Sanchez spoke of “condemning unequivocally the genocide that Netanyahu continues to perpetrate in Gaza”.

Recently, in a sign of how much has changed in three years, Britain, whose Balfour Declaration helped lay the foundations for Israel’s creation, imposed a ban on goods from illegal settlements, while its foreign secretary accused Israeli settlers of ethnic cleansing.

On Saturday, a group of settlers attacked European diplomats and officials from Belgium, France and Poland who were visiting Palestinian olive harvesters near the village of Taybeh in the occupied West Bank. The assault, which came a day after settlers attacked a United States journalist north of Ramallah, drew widespread international condemnation.

Scarred relations between Europe and Israel may never fully repair, experts said as Israel heads to an election on October 27 that is too close to call .

Will the result affect Europe-Israel ties?

Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House, said if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returns with the far right, “certain things will become irreversible. The damage caused by this government is deep”.

Nicola Perugini, a senior lecturer in international relations at the University of Edinburgh, warned that the re-election of the leader, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC), would see Gaza’s population continue to struggle under “unliveable” conditions.

A Netanyahu coalition with more liberal parties might slow settlement expansion. But having a premier wanted by the ICC at the helm would likely lead to a continued deterioration of the Israel-Europe relationship. Replacing Netanyahu would not necessarily mean a break with the policies driving European criticism, experts said.

For instance, Gadi Eisenkot, former military chief and leader of the centrist Yashar party, viewed as Netanyahu’s main challenger, has opposed Palestinian statehood.

An annual public opinion survey by Israel’s Mitvim Institute last year showed that 67 percent of Israelis regarded the EU more as an adversary, compared with 14 percent who saw it as a friend.

Mekelberg sees potential for a different relationship under a more liberal government.

“The conversation with Europe would be more reasonable and rational,” he said, but warned that the picture would not change overnight.

More humanitarian aid could be delivered to Palestinians and the rate of settlement expansion could slow, analysts said. The E1 settlement plan could be abandoned.

But Julie M Norman, an associate fellow at Chatham House, said that may not be enough for European governments to make amends.

Rather, Europe would look for concrete moves towards Palestinian statehood and ending the occupation.

“But so far, we’re not seeing that under the current government and probably not under the next,” she said.

‘Ruling elite in several countries trying to align with the public’

At the beginning of Israel’s war on Gaza, Western leaders supported Israel’s campaign.

But sustained pressure from groups demanding action to stop the onslaught in Gaza and violence in the occupied West Bank – from civil rights organisations, international courts, trade unions and professional bodies to millions of protesters across the world – forced governments to act, analysts said.

“Now the ruling elite in several countries is trying to align itself with the public,” Neve Gordon, an Israeli professor of human rights law at Queen Mary University in London, told Al Jazeera, adding that the pro-Palestine movement had changed the “common sense” position of governments.

Pew Research Center polling in the UK found that the proportion viewing Israel unfavourably rose from 61 to 69 percent between spring 2025 and spring this year, from 66 to 75 percent in Italy and from 64 to 73 percent in Germany, one of its strongest allies.

A protester shouts slogans, while holding a placard reading: ‘Wanted under international warrant for crimes against humanity referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, during a pro-Palestinian rally in Warsaw, Poland, October 10, 2026 [Mateusz Kaczmarek/Reuters]

Nathalie Tocci, an Italian political scientist, linked that pressure to recognition of Palestinian statehood, moves towards suspending the EU-Israel association agreement and bans on settlement imports.

“If anything has had any impact on European policy towards Israel, it is precisely the wave of protests over the last few years,” she said.

Norman at Chatham House said European states have shifted from targeted measures, such as sanctioning far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, towards “broader structures, in terms of scrutiny of the Israeli state itself”.

But support for Israel persists in parts of Europe, noted Oxford University professor Janina Dill.

Two successive German governments have been “utterly unwilling to act on justified public criticism of Germany’s diplomatic and material support for Israel”, she said.

With support generally on the decline, Israel has cultivated ties with Europe’s far right, finding common ground in nationalism and hostility towards Islam, despite historic and current ties to anti-Semitism.

Menachem Klein, a senior lecturer at Bar-Ilan University, told Al Jazeera, that the current government has caused “huge damage to relations with friends and allies” – and scars will take time to heal.

Mekelberg added that improving relations requires concrete steps towards a peace process and a different future for Palestinians. Even then, the damage will endure.

The election debate in Israel has focused on security, rather than the morality of the continued killing of Palestinians or the country’s international standing.

Israel’s wars abroad appear to have widespread domestic support.

An Israel Democracy Institute survey in April found that 92 percent of Jewish Israelis highly rated the military’s management of the Iran war. Eighty percent supported continuing the fighting against Hezbollah, even at the cost of friction with Washington. In September, Jewish People Policy Institute polling found that 72 percent of Jewish Israelis would not accept withdrawal to Gaza’s border without retaining an Israeli security perimeter inside the territory.

Pro-Israeli counterprotesters gather in opposition to the ‘United for Palestine’ demonstration in Berlin, Germany, October 10, 2026 [Christian Mang/Reuters]

Israel’s diplomatic isolation might therefore seem an obvious election issue. Instead, “it is barely discussed”, Yaakov Katz, cofounder of the Middle East American Dialogue Forum, wrote in an article for Chatham House.

Rather, the main talking points are the degradation of Hamas and the weakening of Hezbollah and Iran, while the opposition promises to lower living costs, investigate the failures surrounding October 7 and draft members of the ultra-Orthodox community into the military.

“It is not that Israelis are unaware of the campus protests, the arms embargoes, growing European sanctions and recognition of a Palestinian state, and the International Criminal Court arrest warrants,” Katz wrote. “The 7 October attack has shaped public opinion in Israel to such an extent that when a foreign government criticises Israel … Israelis see only two viewpoints: that the criticism is either antiSemitic or it is ignorant.”

欧洲对内塔尼亚胡的谴责日益增多，但分析人士表示，以色列的选举不太可能给巴勒斯坦人带来实质性的改变。

2026年10月10日，在德国柏林举行的“团结支持巴勒斯坦”示威活动中，一名抗议者举着一张标语牌，上面印着以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的逮捕令，标语牌上沾满了假血。[克里斯蒂安·芒/路透社]

在纪念以色列建国 75 周年之际，乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩表达了声援。

“欧洲和以色列注定会成为朋友和盟友，”欧盟委员会主席于2023年4月23日表示。

列表 1/4 伊朗人如何将资金转移到国外以规避美国制裁？

列表 2/4：杰瑞·宋飞在亲巴勒斯坦抗议者打断演出时跳舞

印度“蟑螂党”四名领导人中，第三名因进入“禁区”抗议场所而被捕入狱

列表 4/4：人工智能驱动需求推动中国出口激增

这种友谊超越了外交范畴。以色列在欧洲参加国际足球比赛，参加欧洲歌唱大赛，并与欧洲各国政府共享情报。其武器工业也融入了欧洲的生产体系​​。

这些联系依然存在，但在以色列系统性地摧毁加沙地带后，这些联系已变成战场，造成至少 74,000 名巴勒斯坦人死亡。

由于以色列参赛，一些欧洲国家退出了欧洲歌唱大赛。欧洲足球运动员拒绝与以色列队比赛。一些友好的声明也被重新解读为谴责。

爱尔兰和西班牙长期以来一直带头批评以色列对巴勒斯坦人的压迫。

在最近的联合国大会上，爱尔兰总理米歇尔·马丁表示，以色列在加沙的行动“将令世界蒙羞”，而西班牙总理佩德罗·桑切斯则表示“毫不含糊地谴责内塔尼亚胡继续在加沙犯下的种族灭绝罪行”。

最近，英国——其《贝尔福宣言》为以色列的建国奠定了基础——禁止从非法定居点进口商品，同时其外交大臣指责以色列定居者进行种族清洗，这表明三年来发生了多大的变化。

周六，一群定居者袭击了正在被占领的约旦河西岸泰贝村附近访问巴勒斯坦橄榄采摘者的欧洲外交官和来自比利时、法国和波兰的官员。此次袭击发生在定居者在拉马拉北部袭击一名美国记者的第二天，引发了国际社会的广泛谴责。

专家表示，欧洲和以色列之间伤痕累累的关系可能永远无法完全修复，而以色列将于10月27日举行大选，但选情胶着，难以预测结果。

这一结果会影响欧洲与以色列的关系吗？

查塔姆研究所中东问题分析师约西·梅克尔伯格表示，如果本杰明·内塔尼亚胡总理与极右翼势力联手复职，“某些事情将变得不可逆转。本届政府造成的损害是深远的”。

爱丁堡大学国际关系高级讲师尼古拉·佩鲁吉尼警告说，这位被国际刑事法院通缉的领导人如果再次当选，加沙人民将继续在“无法生存”的条件下挣扎。

内塔尼亚胡与更多自由派政党组建的联合政府或许能减缓定居点扩张。但如果由一位受到国际刑事法院起诉的总理执政，很可能导致以色列与欧洲关系持续恶化。专家表示，更换内塔尼亚胡并不一定意味着会放弃那些引发欧洲批评的政策。

例如，被视为内塔尼亚胡主要挑战者的前军事首脑、中间派政党亚沙尔党领导人加迪·艾森科特反对巴勒斯坦建国。

以色列米特维姆研究所去年进行的一项年度民意调查显示，67%的以色列人将欧盟视为对手，而只有14%的人将其视为朋友。

梅克尔贝格认为，在更加自由的政府领导下，两国关系可能会有所不同。

他说：“与欧洲的对话会更加合理和理性”，但他警告说，情况不会在一夜之间改变。

分析人士表示，巴勒斯坦人可以获得更多人道主义援助，定居点扩张速度可能会放缓。E1定居点计划也可能被放弃。

但查塔姆研究所的副研究员朱莉·M·诺曼表示，这可能不足以让欧洲各国政府做出弥补。

相反，欧洲会寻求巴勒斯坦建国和结束占领的具体举措。

“但到目前为止，我们还没有在现任政府的领导下看到这种情况，而且可能在下一届政府的领导下也不会看到，”她说。

“多个国家的统治精英试图与公众保持一致”

在以色列对加沙发动战争之初，西方领导人支持以色列的行动。

分析人士表示，来自各方团体的持续压力迫使各国政府采取行动，这些团体要求采取行动制止加沙地带的袭击和被占领的西岸地区的暴力活动——这些团体包括公民权利组织、国际法院、工会和专业机构，以及世界各地数百万的抗议者。

“现在，一些国家的统治精英正试图与公众保持一致，”伦敦玛丽女王大学的以色列人权法教授内夫·戈登告诉半岛电视台，并补充说，亲巴勒斯坦运动已经改变了各国政府的“常识性”立场。

英国皮尤研究中心的民意调查发现，对以色列持负面看法的人数比例从 2025 年春季到今年春季从 61% 上升到 69%，意大利从 66% 上升到 75%，德国（以色列最坚定的盟友之一）从 64% 上升到 73%。

2026年10月10日，在波兰华沙举行的一场支持巴勒斯坦的集会上，一名抗议者高喊口号，同时举着一块标语牌，上面写着：“因反人类罪行被国际通缉”，指的是以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡。[Mateusz Kaczmarek/路透社]

意大利政治学家娜塔莉·托奇将这种压力与承认巴勒斯坦建国、暂停欧盟与以色列联系国协定以及禁止定居点进口联系起来。

“如果说有什么事情对欧洲对以色列的政策产生了任何影响，那就是过去几年来的抗议浪潮，”她说。

查塔姆研究所的诺曼表示，欧洲各国已经从制裁极右翼部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔和贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇等有针对性的措施，转向“更广泛的结构，以审查以色列国家本身”。

但牛津大学教授贾尼娜·迪尔指出，欧洲部分地区仍然支持以色列。

她表示，两届德国政府“完全不愿对公众合理批评德国在外交和物质上支持以色列的行为采取行动”。

由于支持率普遍下降，以色列与欧洲极右翼建立了联系，在民族主义和敌视伊斯兰教方面找到了共同点，尽管以色列与反犹太主义有着历史和现实的联系。

巴伊兰大学高级讲师梅纳赫姆·克莱因告诉半岛电视台，现任政府“对与朋友和盟友的关系造成了巨大损害”，而这些伤痕需要时间才能愈合。

梅克尔贝格补充说，改善关系需要采取切实措施推进和平进程，并为巴勒斯坦人民创造一个不同的未来。即便如此，损害仍将持续存在。

以色列的选举辩论主要集中在安全问题上，而不是持续杀害巴勒斯坦人的道德问题或该国的国际地位。

以色列在海外发动的战争似乎得到了国内的广泛支持。

以色列民主研究所四月份的一项调查显示，92%的以色列犹太人高度评价军方对伊朗战争的处理方式。80%的犹太人支持继续打击真主党，即使这意味着与华盛顿产生摩擦。九月份，犹太人民政策研究所的民调发现，72%的以色列犹太人表示，如果以色列不保留在加沙地带内部的安全警戒线，他们就不会接受撤军至加沙边界。

2026年10月10日，在德国柏林，亲以色列的反示威者聚集起来，反对“团结支持巴勒斯坦”的示威活动。[克里斯蒂安·芒/路透社]

因此，以色列的外交孤立似乎是一个显而易见的选举议题。然而，中东美国对话论坛联合创始人雅科夫·卡茨在查塔姆研究所的一篇文章中写道，这个问题“却几乎无人提及”。

相反，主要讨论点是哈马斯的衰落以及真主党和伊朗的削弱，反对派承诺降低生活成本，调查10月7日事件的失败之处，并将极端正统派社区成员征召入伍。

卡茨写道：“并非以色列人对校园抗议、武器禁运、日益严厉的欧洲制裁和对巴勒斯坦国的承认，以及国际刑事法院的逮捕令一无所知。10月7日的袭击事件已经深刻地影响了以色列的公众舆论，以至于当外国政府批评以色列时……以色列人只会看到两种观点：要么是反犹主义，要么是无知。”