KOSPI's biggest October rout problem: No one left to buy the dip

KOSPI fell 20.7 percent through Thursday in South Korea over seven sessions, as foreign selling overwhelmed a shrinking pool of buyers. The benchmark rebounded 2.05 percent Friday, but pension funds, corporate buybacks and retail investors provided less support than during July’s rout. Analysts said leveraged ETF flows and reduced short-covering capacity could amplify declines, while uncertainty over external risks and liquidity clouds the timing of a sustained recovery.

Foreign investors sold a net 4.54 trillion won in shares last Tuesday, while pension funds and similar institutions bought a net 51.4 billion won, according to the Korea Exchange.

Samsung Electronics completed its 15 trillion won buyback program on Oct. 6, while SK hynix had spent 37 trillion won of its planned 40 trillion won as of Wednesday.

The VKOSPI fear index reached 56 on Thursday, compared with a peak of 97 in late June, making historical rebound patterns less reliable according to David Chung.

Short interest in the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF fell to a cycle low of 8.7 percent after reaching 27.7 percent in July, limiting potential support from short covering.

Goldman Sachs estimated the market’s forward price-to-earnings ratio at 5.1 times, while Morgan Stanley estimated its forward price-to-book ratio at 1.05 times.

Published Oct 18, 2026 4:30 pm KST

Korean stocks may not have hit bottom, analysts say

Dealers work at Hana Bank in Seoul, Thursday, as KOSPI plunged 7.57 percent. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul

Korean stocks may be facing a more troubling sell-off than July's rout, as a shrinking pool of buyers struggles to absorb foreign selling pressure, analysts said Sunday.

KOSPI fell for seven straight sessions through Thursday, losing 20.7 percent and falling to 5,554.22. The benchmark rebounded 2.05 percent Friday, but Korean stocks were hit particularly hard in Asia's broader sell-off.

The slump comes less than three months after the benchmark plunged from 9,385.59 on June 19 to 5,262.77 on July 29, before recovering above 7,000.

Despite resilient earnings expectations, the market backdrop differs from that of July, when a euphoric rally pushed the KOSPI above 9,000. The latest sell-off, by contrast, has battered a market already struggling to regain momentum.

David Chung, founder and CEO of Redpoint Partners, said KOSPI has gained about 60 percent this year despite foreign investors selling a net 200 trillion won ($149.4 billion) in Korean equities.

"Foreign selling has been a constant in the Korean stock market this year, but the key variable has been who is willing and able to absorb it," the Seoul-based Asia equity manager said.

That buying support now appears weaker, despite the recent fall in share prices.

The National Pension Service expanded its permitted allocation range for domestic equities during the first-half rally and did not sufficiently reduce its stock exposure near the peak, leaving it with limited room to buy at lower prices during the recent sell-off.

Last Tuesday, when KOSPI extended its losing streak to five sessions, foreign investors offloaded a net 4.54 trillion won in shares, far exceeding the 51.4 billion won in net purchases by pension funds and similar institutions, according to the Korea Exchange. A day earlier, those funds bought in a net 145 billion won against foreign net selling of 2.02 trillion won. Their modest purchases have provided little cushion against the latest market downturn.

Corporate buyback programs, another source of buying support, are also winding down. Samsung Electronics completed its 15 trillion won program on Oct. 6, while SK hynix had spent 37 trillion won of its planned 40 trillion won as of Wednesday. The purchases have helped absorb selling by other investors.

Retail investors, meanwhile, are still nursing losses from July’s rout, leaving them with less capacity to buy additional shares.

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Historical rebound patterns may offer a less reliable guide this time, Chung said.

"During the market crises of 2008, 2011 and 2020, KOSPI rebounded within three months 84 percent of the time when the VKOSPI (fear index) exceeded 45," he said.

"But this year, a reading of 45 has become the norm, while Thursday's level of 56 remains well below the peak of 97 in late June. That makes historical recovery patterns less reliable and suggests it may be too early to call a bottom."

Dip-buying has shifted toward riskier bets. Unlike in July, when investors bought both conventional and leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETF), inflows are now concentrated in leveraged products including the Direxion Daily South Korea Bull 3X ETF and KODEX Leverage ETF. These funds’ daily rebalancing can add to selling pressure when markets fall, potentially amplifying declines.

There is also less room for short covering to fuel a rebound. Short interest in the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF, a major U.S.-listed fund tracking Korean stocks, reached 27.7 percent in July before investors closed out 43 percent of their short positions within two weeks, helping fuel the August rally. The ratio has since fallen to a cycle low of 8.7 percent, suggesting less potential buying support from short covering this time.

Despite these constraints on buying support, global investment banks say the recent plunge has made Korean stocks more attractive on valuation grounds, while the growth outlook for memory chips remains intact.

Goldman Sachs puts the market's forward price-to-earnings ratio at 5.1 times, while Morgan Stanley estimates its forward price-to-book ratio at 1.05 times, near the historical average. Still, uncertainty over external risks and liquidity conditions clouds the timing of a sustained recovery, according to Morgan Stanley.

韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）周四前连续七个交易日下跌20.7%，外资抛售压倒了本已萎缩的买家群体。该指数周五反弹2.05%，但养老基金、企业回购和散户投资者的支撑作用远不及7月份的暴跌。分析师表示，杠杆ETF资金流动和空头回补能力下降可能会加剧跌势，而外部风险和流动性的不确定性也令市场难以预测持续复苏的时机。

据韩国交易所数据显示，上周二外国投资者净卖出4.54万亿韩元股票，而养老基金和类似机构净买入514亿韩元股票。

三星电子于 10 月 6 日完成了 15 万亿韩元的股票回购计划，而截至周三，SK 海力士已花费了其计划中的 40 万亿韩元中的 37 万亿韩元。

周四，VKOSPI恐慌指数达到56，而6月下旬的峰值曾达到97，David Chung表示，这使得历史反弹模式的可靠性降低。

iShares MSCI 韩国 ETF 的空头头寸在 7 月份达到 27.7% 后，降至周期低点 8.7%，限制了空头回补可能提供的支撑。

高盛估计该市场的预期市盈率为 5.1 倍，而摩根士丹利估计其预期市净率为 1.05 倍。

发布于2026年10月18日下午4:30（韩国标准时间）

分析师称，韩国股市可能尚未触底。

周四，首尔韩亚银行的交易员们正在工作，当天韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）暴跌7.57%。（韩国时报 沈铉哲 摄）

分析师周日表示，由于买家群体不断萎缩，难以消化外国抛售压力，韩国股市可能面临比7月份暴跌更为严重的抛售潮。

截至周四，韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）连续七个交易日下跌，累计下跌20.7%，收于5554.22点。该指数周五反弹2.05%，但受亚洲整体抛售潮的影响，韩国股市遭受的打击尤为严重。

此次暴跌距离基准指数从 6 月 19 日的 9,385.59 点暴跌至 7 月 29 日的 5,262.77 点还不到三个月，之后该指数回升至 7,000 点以上。

尽管盈利预期依然强劲，但目前的市场环境与7月份截然不同，当时一波乐观的上涨行情推动韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）突破9000点大关。相比之下，最近的抛售潮重创了本已举步维艰的市场。

红点基金创始人兼首席执行官大卫·钟表示，尽管外国投资者今年净卖出 200 万亿韩元（1494 亿美元）的韩国股票，但韩国综合股价指数 (KOSPI) 今年仍上涨了约 60%。

“今年以来，外国投资者一直在抛售韩国股市股票，但关键在于谁愿意并且能够消化这些抛售，”这位首尔的亚洲股票经理表示。

尽管股价近期下跌，但目前的买盘支撑似乎有所减弱。

国民年金公团在上半年股市上涨期间扩大了国内股票的允许配置范围，但在接近峰值时并未充分减少股票敞口，导致其在最近的抛售潮中以较低价格买入的空间有限。

上周二，韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）连续第五个交易日下跌，据韩国交易所数据显示，外国投资者净卖出4.54万亿韩元股票，远超养老基金及类似机构514亿韩元的净买入。而前一天，这些基金净买入1450亿韩元，而外国投资者净卖出2.02万亿韩元。他们的少量买入并未对近期的市场下跌起到多少缓冲作用。

企业回购计划是另一项支撑股价的举措，目前也正在逐步结束。三星电子于10月6日完成了15万亿韩元的回购计划，而截至周三，SK海力士已支出其计划40万亿韩元中的37万亿韩元。这些回购计划有助于消化其他投资者抛售的股票。

与此同时，散户投资者仍在消化7月份暴跌造成的损失，因此他们购买更多股票的能力有所下降。

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钟表示，历史反弹模式这次可能不太可靠。

他说：“在 2008 年、2011 年和 2020 年的市场危机期间，当 VKOSPI（恐慌指数）超过 45 时，KOSPI 有 84% 的概率在三个月内反弹。”

“但今年，45已成为常态，而周四的56仍远低于6月下旬97的峰值。这使得历史复苏模式的可靠性降低，并表明现在断言触底可能为时尚早。”

逢低买入的趋势已转向风险更高的投资标的。与7月份投资者同时买入传统ETF和杠杆ETF不同，目前资金流入主要集中在杠杆产品，例如Direxion每日韩国3倍做多ETF和KODEX杠杆ETF。这些基金的每日再平衡操作可能会在市场下跌时增加抛售压力，从而可能放大跌幅。

空头回补推动反弹的空间也相应缩小。追踪韩国股票的美国上市大型基金iShares MSCI韩国ETF的空头持仓比例在7月份一度高达27.7%，之后投资者在两周内平掉了43%的空头头寸，推动了8月份的上涨行情。此后，该比例已降至周期低点8.7%，表明此次空头回补带来的潜在买盘支撑作用有所减弱。

尽管买盘受到限制，但全球投资银行表示，近期的暴跌使得韩国股票在估值方面更具吸引力，而存储芯片的增长前景依然完好无损。

高盛预计市场预期市盈率为5.1倍，而摩根士丹利预计预期市净率为1.05倍，接近历史平均水平。不过，摩根士丹利指出，外部风险和流动性状况的不确定性仍然影响着经济持续复苏的时机。