Alberta independence referendum: Will separatists survive a loss?

Alberta’s independence movement faces likely defeat, but history suggests losing a referendum may not end the fight.

Separatists rally on Saturday at the provincial legislature in Edmonton, Alberta [AFP]

Cory Morgan has spent more than 25 years fighting for Canada’s oil-rich province of Alberta to become an independent country. On Monday, Albertans will head to the polls to vote on the issue for the very first time. But even if the answer is no, Morgan said he’s in it for the long haul.

“I would respect the will of the voters,” he told Al Jazeera. “If they’ve decided it’s not time to go that route yet, then so be it. But that doesn’t mean I’ll stop.”

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Morgan, the founder of the advocacy organisation Pathway to Independence, is among a group of longtime separatists who have managed to push what was once a fringe idea onto the ballot.

Monday’s provincial referendum asks Alberta residents to weigh whether they would like to pursue a binding resolution in the future on the question of independence.

Polls indicate the pro-independence side has little chance of succeeding, with four of five people in the province saying they want Alberta to remain a part of Canada. But Morgan’s focus is on the one in five who don’t.

“That’s not a movement that’s leaving,” he said.

What the referendum will mean for the separatist movement and for Canada as a whole, however, is a more complicated question.

What exactly are Albertans voting on?

Monday’s ballot gives Albertans two options: to remain part of Canada or begin the legal process for holding a future referendum on separation.

A vote in favour of the second option doesn’t mean Alberta immediately becomes an independent country.

Any province that tries to secede would first have to go through complex negotiations with the federal government in Ottawa, other provinces and Indigenous peoples who live in and around Alberta.

Some separatist organisers have been using that distinction to encourage people to vote for the referendum — even if they don’t necessarily want independence.

“Strategic separatists and their leaders have been using that ambiguity, that lower-bar threshold, to entice folks to vote not to leave, but rather to send Ottawa a message that Albertans need to be heard,” said Jared Wesley, a political science professor at the University of Alberta.

He told Al Jazeera that the message may be resonating with some voters.

Data collected by Viewpoint Alberta, a University of Alberta-based research initiative, suggests that two-thirds of voters who support the referendum say they’re doing so for strategic reasons, to send a message to Ottawa.

These are people Morgan calls “reluctant separatists”, people who are “at the end of their rope” and simply want Ottawa to pay attention.

But Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned Albertans against this strategy.

“Don’t be fooled by the idea you can ‘send a message’ with your vote,” he told a pro-Canada rally in Calgary on Thursday. “This is not poker. A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep division and great uncertainty.”

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks at a rally hosted by the advocacy group Forever Canadian at the Edmonton Expo Center in Edmonton, Alberta, on Friday [AFP]

What’s driving Alberta’s separatist movement?

Monday’s referendum has been decades in the making. Separatists have long felt that Alberta, home to the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, sends too much money to Ottawa, subsidising the rest of the country while receiving little in return.

They also take issue with federal energy policies that they feel limit the potential of the province’s oil industry.

For Morgan, the resentment stretches back to the 1980s when the National Energy Program was introduced by the government of Pierre Trudeau, former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s father.

The policy used price controls, taxes and ownership rules to keep Canadian energy affordable while directing more of Alberta’s revenues to Ottawa.

It has since become a central symbol of “Western alienation”, a term used to describe the sense of disenfranchisement felt among Canada’s westernmost provinces.

Those tensions resurfaced decades later under Justin Trudeau, whose term began in 2015. His climate policies, including a national carbon tax and a limit on emissions, angered Alberta’s oil sector.

“We’ve been fighting about the same things for 50 years,” said Morgan.

Then came the COVID-19 pandemic. Experts say demonstrations against health restrictions mobilised a new generation of conservative activists, breathing new life into Alberta’s separatist movement.

Trudeau ultimately resigned as Liberal Party leader and prime minister in 2025, amid sinking poll numbers. Carney was elected his replacement.

Last year, under growing pressure from separatist groups, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s government made it easier to start referendums, helping bring the question of Alberta’s independence onto the political agenda.

For Wesley, the moment is less about growing public support for independence and more about pressure from within Smith’s governing United Conservative Party, whose members show higher support for separation than Albertans generally.

“We’re having a referendum because Danielle Smith wants us to have a referendum,” Wesley said. “She is looking to solve internal party matters by throwing a question to the broader public.”

Though she called Monday’s referendum, Smith has said she opposes the independence effort, and on October 14, she announced she had voted against seceding.

“In my view, now is not the time to give up hope in our country, not when we have fought so long and come so far,” Smith said in a social media video, explaining her vote.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks at the Canada Strong and Free conference in Calgary, Alberta, on Friday [Ahmed Zakot/Reuters]

Could defeat make the movement stronger?

Smith’s political gamble has drawn comparisons with the 2016 Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom, including from Carney.

At the time, then-UK Prime Minister David Cameron called a vote over whether the country should leave the European Union, in hopes of settling a debate dividing his own Conservative Party.

Voters ultimately chose to leave the bloc, triggering years of political unrest.

But Ian Cooper, a political scientist who grew up in Alberta and now lives in Ireland, says a more useful comparison might be a different UK referendum in 1975, when British voters chose overwhelmingly to stay in what was then known as the European Economic Community.

That vote, he said, did little to deter those who wanted the country out.

“The activists who were in favour of Brexit — this is before anybody called it Brexit — they really played the long game,” he said. “It took them 25 years, but they finally achieved it.”

Cooper suspects that, even if Alberta separation is roundly defeated, separatists could take a similar approach, pursuing the issue over the long term to gain prominence and support.

“My impression is that they really are true believers, and it’s really ideologically driven,” he said.

If Monday’s separatist vote fails, Morgan said separatists would need to take a hard look at why they had fallen short and work towards making a stronger case for independence in the future.

He does not believe the underlying grievances can be resolved by working within the Canadian system or by electing a more sympathetic federal government.

Carney, who grew up in Alberta, acknowledged at Thursday’s rally that “the frustrations that many Albertans have felt are real”. He added that Ottawa had made people in the province feel “like our resources weren’t our own”.

The prime minister has tried, amid an ongoing trade war with the United States, to improve relations with Alberta, including through commitments to building a new pipeline to Canada’s west coast and major infrastructure projects.

Morgan admits that, for those whose goal is simply to get more leverage in Ottawa, “it’s pretty clear the movement has been effective”.

“We’ve seen more love from a federal prime minister in the last year than we’ve seen in the last 10,” Morgan said. “The problem though, when it comes to stubborn independence folks like me, is nothing has changed in the system.”

Prime ministers come and go, he added. “We’re just one election away from another hostile one.”

Separatist organiser Cory Morgan speaks to Alberta separatist supporters at a meeting by Let’s Talk Alberta in Calgary, Alberta, on October 13, 2026 [Todd Korol/Reuters]

Why the other referendum questions matter

But the referendum could also offer an opportunity to challenge the premise that Alberta’s grievances cannot be addressed within Canada.

The independence question is just one of 10 on Monday’s ballot. Other proposals include restricting temporary residents’ access to healthcare and education, as well as allowing Alberta to choose its own judges.

Smith has encouraged Albertans to vote in favour of the nine other proposals, arguing that they will give her more negotiating power in Ottawa.

“Many Albertans I speak with tell me they want to send Ottawa a message, and I would suggest the best way to do that is to give us a strong mandate on the other nine questions,” she said on social media.

If Albertans back those proposals but Ottawa refuses to make concessions, Cooper, the political scientist, said the movement would have fresh ammunition to argue that meaningful change within the current system is impossible.

“Buried in the nine other questions are the seeds for a future referendum,” Cooper added.

What could keep the movement alive?

Not everyone agrees, however, on whether the separatists can emerge from the vote as a united force.

Wesley explained that people have been drawn to the separatist cause for a variety of reasons.

If there’s a sense that independence is not a realistic prospect, there may be little to keep that group of activists together, he said. They could turn their attention to other conservative issues, such as immigration.

Other experts question whether Alberta’s separatist movement, which is united more by economic grievances than by a shared cultural identity, can endure the way Quebec’s has.

Just two weeks ago, the largely French-speaking province elected the separatist Party Quebecois, which has promised a third referendum on independence after Trump leaves office.

Morgan, however, argues that Alberta does have a distinct culture, shaped by generations of people who have moved to the province in search of prosperity.

“The type of person drawn to do that is often an individualistic type of person,” he said. “They want the opportunity to go out and succeed or fail on their own.”

“And that builds a kind of a distinct culture on its own, even if it’s not a long-built one, as you would see in a distinct area like Quebec with a linguistic difference or in another country.”

Even if Albertans reject separation, he believes the movement has succeeded in forcing Ottawa to take the province’s frustrations more seriously.

“Hopefully some people understand that eventually something has to give,” he said. “So whatever the results are … I do hope, at the very least, they’ve served as a wake-up call to a lot of people.”

阿尔伯塔省的独立运动很可能遭遇失败，但历史表明，输掉公投并不一定意味着斗争结束。

分离主义分子周六在阿尔伯塔省埃德蒙顿的省议会大厦举行集会 [法新社]

科里·摩根 (Cory Morgan) 为争取加拿大石油资源丰富的阿尔伯塔省独立建国已奋斗了超过 25 年。周一，阿尔伯塔省选民将首次就此问题进行投票。但即便结果是否定的，摩根也表示他会坚持到底。

“我会尊重选民的意愿，”他告诉半岛电视台。“如果他们认为现在还不是走这条路的时候，那就这样吧。但这并不意味着我会停止。”

加拿大将加快建设输油管道，旨在实现经济多元化，摆脱对美国的依赖（共4条，此为第1条）。

加拿大魁北克省选举中，分离主义政党获胜（共4条，此为第2条）

加拿大总理卡尼呼吁团结，阿尔伯塔省准备举行脱离联邦投票（共4条记录，此为第3条）。

加拿大军事基地发生火灾，至少四人死亡，数十人受伤（共四条报道，此为第四条）

摩根是倡导组织“通往独立之路”的创始人，他与一群长期分离主义者一起，成功地将曾经的边缘思想推上了投票程序。

周一举行的省级公投要求阿尔伯塔省居民权衡他们是否希望在未来就独立问题寻求具有约束力的决议。

民调显示，支持独立的一方成功的机会渺茫，该省五分之四的民众表示希望阿尔伯塔省留在加拿大。但摩根关注的焦点是那五分之一反对独立的民众。

“那不是一场即将结束的运动，”他说。

然而，这次公投对分离主义运动和整个加拿大意味着什么，则是一个更为复杂的问题。

阿尔伯塔省的选民究竟在投票表决什么？

周一的投票给了阿尔伯塔省居民两个选择：留在加拿大，或者启动未来举行分离公投的法律程序。

投票支持第二个方案并不意味着阿尔伯塔省会立即成为一个独立国家。

任何试图脱离加拿大的省份，首先都必须与渥太华的联邦政府、其他省份以及居住在艾伯塔省及其周边地区的原住民进行复杂的谈判。

一些分离主义组织者利用这种区别来鼓励人们投票支持公投——即使他们不一定想要独立。

“战略分离主义者及其领导人一直在利用这种模糊性，这种较低的门槛，来诱使人们投票不是为了脱离加拿大，而是为了向渥太华发出一个信息，即阿尔伯塔人需要被倾听，”阿尔伯塔大学政治学教授贾里德·韦斯利说。

他告诉半岛电视台，这一信息可能引起了一些选民的共鸣。

由阿尔伯塔大学的研究项目“阿尔伯塔观点”（Viewpoint Alberta）收集的数据显示，三分之二支持公投的选民表示，他们这样做是出于战略原因，为了向渥太华传递一个信息。

摩根称这些人是“不情愿的分离主义者”，他们“走投无路”，只是希望渥太华能够关注他们。

但阿尔伯塔省总理马克·卡尼警告阿尔伯塔省民众不要采取这种策略。

“不要被‘投票可以传递信息’的想法所蒙蔽，”他周四在卡尔加里举行的一场支持加拿大的集会上说。“这不是扑克牌。投票反对加拿大是一种危险的虚张声势，会导致多年的严重分裂和巨大的不确定性。”

加拿大总理马克·卡尼周五在艾伯塔省埃德蒙顿的埃德蒙顿展览中心出席由倡导组织“永远的加拿大人”主办的集会并发表讲话。[法新社]

是什么因素推动了阿尔伯塔省的分离主义运动？

周一的公投酝酿了几十年。分离主义者一直认为，拥有世界第四大已探明石油储量的阿尔伯塔省向渥太华缴纳了过多的税款，补贴了加拿大其他地区，却几乎没有得到任何回报。

他们还对联邦政府的能源政策提出异议，认为这些政策限制了该省石油工业的潜力。

对摩根来说，这种怨恨可以追溯到 20 世纪 80 年代，当时皮埃尔·特鲁多（前总理贾斯汀·特鲁多的父亲）的政府推出了国家能源计划。

该政策利用价格管制、税收和所有权规则来保持加拿大能源价格的可负担性，同时将阿尔伯塔省更多的收入输送到渥太华。

此后，它成为了“西部疏离感”的核心象征，这个词用来描述加拿大最西部各省感受到的权利剥夺感。

这些紧张局势在几十年后贾斯汀·特鲁多执政时期再次浮出水面，他的任期始于 2015 年。他的气候政策，包括全国碳税和排放限制，激怒了阿尔伯塔省的石油行业。

“50年来，我们一直在为同样的事情争论不休，”摩根说道。

随后新冠疫情爆发。专家表示，反对防疫限制措施的示威活动动员了新一代保守派活动人士，为阿尔伯塔省的分离主义运动注入了新的活力。

由于民调支持率持续下滑，特鲁多最终于2025年辞去自由党领袖和总理职务。卡尼当选接替他的位置。

去年，在分离主义团体的压力下，阿尔伯塔省省长丹妮尔·史密斯领导的政府简化了发起全民公投的程序，从而将阿尔伯塔省的独立问题提上了政治议程。

对韦斯利来说，眼下的情况与其说是公众对独立的支持日益增长，不如说是来自史密斯执政的联合保守党内部的压力，该党成员对分离的支持度高于阿尔伯塔省的普通民众。

“我们举行全民公投是因为丹妮尔·史密斯想让我们举行全民公投，”韦斯利说。“她想通过向广大公众抛出问题来解决党内事务。”

尽管史密斯发起了周一的全民公投，但她表示反对独立运动，并在 10 月 14 日宣布她投票反对脱离联邦。

“在我看来，现在还不是放弃对我们国家的希望的时候，我们已经奋斗了这么久，走了这么远，”史密斯在一段社交媒体视频中解释她的投票时说道。

艾伯塔省省长丹妮尔·史密斯周五在艾伯塔省卡尔加里举行的“加拿大强大与自由”会议上发表讲话。[艾哈迈德·扎科特/路透社]

失败反而会让这场运动更加强大吗？

史密斯的政治豪赌让人联想到 2016 年英国脱欧公投，卡尼也持相同观点。

当时，英国首相戴维·卡梅伦呼吁就英国是否应该脱离欧盟进行投票，希望以此平息分裂他自己的保守党的辩论。

选民最终选择退出该阵营，引发了多年的政治动荡。

但伊恩·库珀是一位政治学家，他在阿尔伯塔省长大，现在居住在爱尔兰。他表示，更有意义的比较可能是 1975 年英国举行的另一次全民公投，当时英国选民以压倒性多数选择留在当时被称为欧洲经济共同体的组织中。

他说，那次投票并没有阻止那些想要国家脱离联邦的人。

他说：“那些支持英国脱欧的活动人士——那时还没有人称之为英国脱欧——他们真的着眼于长远。他们花了25年时间，但最终实现了目标。”

库珀怀疑，即使阿尔伯塔省的分离运动彻底失败，分离主义者也可能采取类似的策略，长期推进该问题以获得关注和支持。

“我的印象是，他们确实是虔诚的信徒，而且这完全是受意识形态驱动的，”他说。

摩根表示，如果周一的分离主义投票失败，分离主义者需要认真反思失败的原因，并努力在未来提出更有力的独立理由。

他认为，通过加拿大体制内的努力或选举一个更同情他们的联邦政府，无法解决根本性的不满。

在阿尔伯塔省长大的卡尼在周四的集会上承认，“许多阿尔伯塔省居民的沮丧之情是真实存在的”。他还补充说，渥太华让该省人民感觉“我们的资源不属于我们自己”。

在与美国持续的贸易战中，总理试图改善与阿尔伯塔省的关系，包括承诺修建一条通往加拿大西海岸的新管道和重大基础设施项目。

摩根承认，对于那些目标仅仅是在渥太华获得更多影响力的人来说，“很明显，这场运动已经取得了成效”。

摩根说：“过去一年里，我们看到的联邦总理对人民的关爱比过去十年加起来都多。但对于像我这样固执的独立派人士来说，问题在于体制内没有任何改变。”

他补充说，首相来来去去。“我们离另一场充满敌意的选举只有一次之遥了。”

2026年10月13日，分离主义组织者科里·摩根在阿尔伯塔省卡尔加里市举行的“让我们谈谈阿尔伯塔”会议上向阿尔伯塔分离主义支持者发表讲话。[托德·科罗尔/路透社]

其他公投议题为何重要

但这次公投也可能提供一个机会，挑战“阿尔伯塔省的诉求无法在加拿大境内得到解决”这一前提。

独立问题只是周一投票表决的十个议题之一。其他提案包括限制临时居民获得医疗保健和教育的权利，以及允许阿尔伯塔省自行选举法官。

史密斯鼓励阿尔伯塔省的选民投票支持其他九项提案，她认为这些提案将赋予她在渥太华更大的谈判筹码。

“我与许多阿尔伯塔省居民交谈后得知，他们想向渥太华传递一个信息，我认为最好的方法就是在其他九个问题上给予我们强有力的授权，”她在社交媒体上说道。

政治学家库珀表示，如果阿尔伯塔省民众支持这些提议，但渥太华拒绝做出让步，那么这场运动将有新的论据来证明，在现有体制下进行有意义的变革是不可能的。

库珀补充说：“其他九个问题中埋下了未来举行全民公投的伏笔。”

什么因素能够让这场运动继续下去？

然而，并非所有人都认同分离主义者能够通过这次投票团结起来。

韦斯利解释说，人们出于各种原因被吸引到分离主义事业中。

他说，如果人们普遍认为独立并非现实前景，那么这群活动人士可能就难以团结起来。他们可能会将注意力转向其他保守派议题，例如移民问题。

其他专家质疑，阿尔伯塔省的分离主义运动能否像魁北克省的分离主义运动那样持续下去，因为该运动的团结更多是出于经济上的不满，而不是出于共同的文化认同。

就在两周前，这个以法语为主的省份选举了魁北克分离主义政党魁北克党，该党承诺在特朗普卸任后举行第三次独立公投。

然而，摩根认为，阿尔伯塔省确实拥有独特的文化，这种文化是由一代又一代为了追求繁荣而移居该省的人们塑造而成的。

他说：“容易这样做的人通常是个人主义倾向的人。他们希望有机会独自闯荡，无论成功还是失败。”

“这本身就形成了一种独特的文化，即使它不像魁北克这样语言差异显著的地区或其他国家那样，是一种历史悠久的文化。”

即使阿尔伯塔省的居民拒绝分离，他也认为这场运动已经成功迫使渥太华更加认真地对待该省的不满情绪。

“希望有些人能明白，总有一天会有所改变，”他说。“所以无论结果如何……我真心希望，至少这件事能给很多人敲响警钟。”