China GDP growth picks up thanks to export boom

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China reported better-than-expected Q3 growth on Monday as robust exports of chips and electronics components on the back of a global artificial intelligence boom buoy the world’s second-largest economy, despite sluggish demand at home.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the economy grew 4.5% from a year earlier in the quarter ending September, a slight improvement from the more than three-year low of 4.3% last quarter and meeting the lower end of Beijing’s 4.5-5% annual target .

For the first nine months of 2026, the economy expanded 4.6%.

The latest quarterly figure underscores the continuing challenge facing China’s leadership to address the deepening imbalance that has made the country increasingly reliant on manufacturing and overseas markets.

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The phenomenon has come to be described by economists as a “two-speed economy”: a thriving export engine powered by high-tech manufacturing, alongside weak investment and stagnant domestic consumption. A prolonged housing market downturn , now in its fifth year, remains a drag, as an estimated 70% of Chinese household wealth is tied up in property.

This came as China has demonstrated its resilience in weathering the economic shocks of President Donald Trump’s tariff offensive – now on pause after both sides agreed to a truce – as well as the US’s war with Iran, which has dragged down growth in other nations.

Beijing has made expanding domestic demand a top priority for 2026. Last month, the government unveiled a mix of limited stimulus measures, including mortgage subsidies for first-time home buyers and targeted rate cuts, after the cabinet pledged to step up support to meet its annual growth target.

But more support may be needed if the economy remains subdued going into the fourth quarter, economists say.

Last week, the IMF downgraded its growth forecast for China this year from 4.6% to 4.5%, citing persistent weakness in domestic demand. It also revised down its 2027 projection for China from 4.1% to 4%.

“Sluggishness in domestic consumption and weakening investment amid continued property sector strains were only partly offset by robust export performance,” the IMF said in its latest global growth outlook report . Meanwhile, the financial organization upgraded its global economy growth forecast this year from 3.0% to 3.1%.

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尽管国内需求疲软，但得益于全球人工智能热潮推动芯片和电子元件出口强劲，中国第三季度经济增长好于预期，这提振了世界第二大经济体。

中国国家统计局表示，截至9月份的季度，中国经济同比增长4.5%，较上季度4.3%的三年多低点略有改善，达到北京设定的4.5%至5%年度目标的下限。

2026 年前九个月，经济增长了 4.6%。

最新的季度数据凸显了中国领导层面临的持续挑战，即如何解决日益加深的失衡问题，使中国越来越依赖制造业和海外市场。

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经济学家将这种现象描述为“双速经济”：一方面是高科技制造业驱动的蓬勃发展的出口引擎，另一方面是疲软的投资和停滞的国内消费。持续五年的房地产市场低迷仍然是经济的一大拖累，因为据估计，中国家庭财富的70%都集中在房地产上。

与此同时，中国展现了其抵御美国总统唐纳德·特朗普关税攻势（目前双方已同意休战，关税攻势暂时中止）以及美国与伊朗的战争（这场战争拖累了其他国家的经济增长）带来的经济冲击的韧性。

北京已将扩大内需列为2026年的首要任务。上个月，政府公布了一系列有限的刺激措施，包括为首次购房者提供抵押贷款补贴和有针对性地降息，此前国务院承诺将加大支持力度以实现年度增长目标。

但经济学家表示，如果经济在第四季度依然低迷，可能需要更多支持。

上周，国际货币基金组织将中国今年的经济增长预期从4.6%下调至4.5%，理由是国内需求持续疲软。该组织还将中国2027年的经济增长率预期从4.1%下调至4%。

国际货币基金组织在其最新发布的全球增长展望报告中指出：“尽管房地产行业持续承压，国内消费疲软，投资减少，但强劲的出口表现仅部分抵消了这些不利影响。”与此同时，该金融机构将今年全球经济增长预期从3.0%上调至3.1%。