BOK poised to hold rates as November hike remains in view

The Bank of Korea is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 3 percent at Thursday’s policy meeting, while keeping open the possibility of another increase in November. The pause would allow policymakers to assess the effects of recent hikes on inflation, foreign exchange markets and household debt. Inflation remains above the 2 percent target, while strong semiconductor-led exports and improving incomes could support further tightening.

The BOK raised its benchmark rate from 2.5 percent to 2.75 percent in July and then to 3 percent in August as a preemptive response to inflationary pressures.

Consumer prices rose 2.9 percent year-on-year in September, down from 3.1 percent in August, while core inflation fell from 3.4 percent to 2.8 percent.

West Texas Intermediate crude was below $100 a barrel, and the won-dollar exchange rate was in the 1,350-won range or lower.

Citibank and Morgan Stanley expect quarter-percentage-point rate increases in November and early 2027, potentially lifting the benchmark rate to 3.5 percent in the first quarter of 2027.

Economists differed on the likelihood of dissent at the meeting, with Citibank expecting one board member to favor a hike and Morgan Stanley expecting two.

Published Oct 19, 2026 7:00 am KST

Citibank, Morgan Stanley see rate reaching 3.5% in early 2027

Bank of Korea Gov. Shin Hyun-song answers lawmakers' questions during a parliamentary audit at the central bank in Seoul, Oct. 12. Joint Press Corps

The Bank of Korea (BOK) is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 3 percent at Thursday’s policy meeting, while maintaining a hawkish stance that leaves the door open to further hikes in November, market analysts said Sunday.

Expectations of a pause emerged after BOK Gov. Shin Hyun-song highlighted the burden that rapid rate increases have imposed on vulnerable borrowers. Holding rates steady at the upcoming Monetary Policy Board meeting would give policymakers time to gauge the impact of the recent hikes on inflation, foreign exchange markets and household debt.

Still, strong exports and improving incomes continue to fuel price pressures, suggesting the bank will maintain a hawkish stance and signal that further increases remain possible.

The BOK raised its benchmark rate from 2.5 percent to 2.75 percent in July, followed by another increase to 3 percent in August, describing the back-to-back moves as “a preemptive response” to mounting inflationary pressures.

“This time, the BOK is likely to pause and assess the effects of its previous rate increases,” said Joo Won, deputy director of economic research at the Hyundai Research Institute.

At a parliamentary audit on Oct. 12, Shin noted that the August increase had allowed the central bank “to move ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike and buy time” to assess the effects of tighter policy.

Recent inflation data have given the bank some room to wait. Consumer prices rose 2.9 percent in September from a year earlier, down from 3.1 percent in August. Core inflation also eased from 3.4 percent in August to 2.8 percent the following month.

Global oil prices and currency movements are also giving the BOK more room to pause, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude below $100 a barrel and the won-dollar exchange rate holding in the 1,350-won range or lower.

But this pause is unlikely to mark the end of the tightening cycle. Inflation still remains above the BOK’s original 2 percent target and stronger semiconductor-led exports have continued to improve the country’s growth outlook, giving policymakers greater scope to raise rates further.

During the parliamentary audit, Shin said, "Decisions on when and how quickly to raise rates further would depend on a close assessment of inflation, economic trends and financial stability," reiterating the bank’s commitment to tightening.

Citibank and Morgan Stanley both expect the central bank to raise rates by a quarter percentage point in November and again early next year, thus bringing the benchmark rate to 3.5 percent in the first quarter of 2027.

Morgan Stanley economist Kathleen Oh argued that the export- and manufacturing-led recovery is strong enough to absorb further rate hikes, even as lower-income households, self-employed workers and small and midsize businesses remain vulnerable to heavy debt burdens.

The two firms differ, however, on the likelihood of dissent in favor of a hike at this month’s meeting. Citi’s chief economist Kim Jin-wook sees one Monetary Policy Board member calling for an increase, while Oh anticipates two.

As a result, markets are likely to focus less on the projected hold itself than on signs of how firmly the BOK is leaning toward another increase. The number of dissenters and their reasoning, as well as the board’s three-month rate projections and Shin’s comments on the policy outlook could all offer clues to the timing of the next move.

Early rate hike ahead of Fed's move minimized economic costs: BOK chief

市场普遍预期韩国央行将在周四的政策会议上维持基准利率在3%不变，同时保留11月再次加息的可能性。暂停加息将使决策者能够评估近期加息对通胀、外汇市场和家庭债务的影响。目前通胀率仍高于2%的目标水平，而半导体出口强劲增长和收入改善可能支撑进一步收紧货币政策。

韩国央行在7月份将基准利率从2.5%上调至2.75%，然后在8月份上调至3%，以先发制人地应对通胀压力。

9月份消费者价格同比上涨2.9%，低于8月份的3.1%，而核心通胀率从3.4%降至2.8%。

西德克萨斯中质原油价格低于每桶 100 美元，韩元兑美元汇率在 1350 韩元或更低。

花旗银行和摩根士丹利预计，11 月和 2027 年初利率将上调 0.25 个百分点，基准利率可能在 2027 年第一季度升至 3.5%。

经济学家们对会议上出现反对意见的可能性看法不一，花旗银行预计会有一名董事会成员赞成加息，而摩根士丹利则预计会有两名董事会成员赞成加息。

发布于2026年10月19日 上午7:00（韩国标准时间）

花旗银行和摩根士丹利预计利率将在2027年初达到3.5%。

10月12日，韩国央行行长申贤松在首尔央行接受国会质询时回答议员提问。（联合新闻社）

市场分析师周日表示，市场普遍预期韩国央行将在周四的政策会议上维持基准利率在3%不变，同时保持鹰派立场，这意味着11月份进一步加息的可能性依然存在。

韩国央行行长申铉松强调快速加息给弱势借款人带来的沉重负担后，市场预期利率将暂停上涨。在即将召开的货币政策委员会会议上维持利率不变，将使政策制定者有时间评估近期加息对通胀、外汇市场和家庭债务的影响。

不过，强劲的出口和不断改善的收入继续推高价格压力，这表明央行将维持鹰派立场，并暗示未来仍有可能进一步加息。

韩国央行在7月份将基准利率从2.5%上调至2.75%，随后在8月份再次上调至3%，并将这两次连续的加息举措描述为对不断上升的通胀压力的“先发制人”的应对措施。

“这一次，韩国央行可能会暂停加息，并评估之前加息的影响，”现代经济研究所经济研究副主任朱元表示。

10 月 12 日，申宗宪在国会审计中指出，8 月份的加息使央行“得以抢在美联储 9 月份加息之前采取行动，争取时间”来评估更紧缩的政策的影响。

近期公布的通胀数据让央行有了些许观望空间。9月份消费者价格指数同比上涨2.9%，低于8月份的3.1%。核心通胀率也从8月份的3.4%降至9月份的2.8%。

全球油价和汇率波动也给了韩国央行更多喘息的空间，西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）价格低于每桶100美元，韩元兑美元汇率维持在1350韩元或更低的区间。

但此次暂停不太可能标志着紧缩周期的结束。通胀率仍高于韩国央行最初设定的2%的目标，而半导体出口的强劲增长持续改善了韩国的经济增长前景，这为政策制定者进一步加息提供了更大的空间。

在国会审计期间，申宗宪表示，“何时以及如何快速进一步加息的决定将取决于对通胀、经济趋势和金融稳定的密切评估”，重申了央行收紧货币政策的承诺。

花旗银行和摩根士丹利均预计，央行将在 11 月和明年初分别加息 0.25 个百分点，从而使基准利率在 2027 年第一季度达到 3.5%。

摩根士丹利经济学家凯瑟琳·吴认为，出口和制造业带动的经济复苏足够强劲，足以承受进一步的加息，尽管低收入家庭、个体经营者以及中小企业仍然容易受到沉重债务负担的影响。

然而，两家公司对本月会议上可能出现的反对加息的声音持有不同看法。花旗首席经济学家金镇旭认为会有一位货币政策委员会成员呼吁加息，而吴则预计会有两位。

因此，市场关注的重点可能并非预期中的维持利率不变本身，而是韩国央行加息的力度。反对利率决议的议员人数及其理由，以及央行理事会未来三个月的利率预测和申东赫对政策前景的评论，都可能为下一步行动的时机提供线索。

韩国央行行长：在美联储加息之前提前加息，最大限度地降低了经济成本。