France’s crisis sounds familiar. Is America next?

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France is on fire, and it faces a political and an economic reckoning that feels dangerously familiar to Americans.

The country is nearing a fiscal crisis, because it spent more than it can afford to pay back. The bill is coming due much faster than expected after bond rates surged in recent months, boosted by rising energy costs. Raising taxes and reducing government spending are part of a potential solution, but those would be politically unpopular decisions that could risk further angering an already livid public . Any workable solution faces a steep climb in an uncertain budget battle in a sharply divided government.

Does that ring a bell?

A growing number of countries are facing struggles similar to France’s — in particular, the United Kingdom — where rapidly growing debt, surging costs to finance that borrowing and insufficient political will to make the uncomfortable decisions to solve the problem are the story of Western economics right now. That includes the United States.

But similarities can be superficial.

France’s financial stress is particularly acute. The risk of contagion throughout Europe is low. France’s enormous public safety net represents a much larger share of government spending than that in the United States. And the unique dynamics of the American economy means the United States faces no imminent danger of becoming the next France.

These are not new problems: Europe’s social safety net has been on an unsustainable path for decades, and economists and some politicians have warned for years that the bill would eventually come due.

But they’re getting worse. The Iran war exacerbated the West’s fiscal problems.

Since February, the G7 economies’ average 10-year government bond yield grew more than 1 percentage point, reaching the highest level in nearly 20 years, the International Monetary Fund reported last week.

By the end of the decade, those seven economies’ public debt loads are expected to collectively exceed their economic production, the IMF predicts. That would be the first time since World War II.

France’s public debt is around 119% of its GDP, double the European Union’s target, and its annual budget deficit is 5.4% of its gross domestic product.

“In Europe, people are increasingly scared of the bond market and the interest rates that governments need to pay to borrow,” said Peter Taylor-Gooby, a social policy professor at the University of Kent. “It’s come to a point where you can’t ignore it anymore. If we do, we’ll reach a serious crisis.”

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The rioting across France is a symptom of a much larger public and political crisis

On paper, America doesn’t look dissimilar: Its $32 trillion public debt is roughly equal to annual US GDP, and the $2 trillion budget deficit that it just closed the books on is more than 6% of GDP. The cost to finance America’s public debt just crossed $1 trillion a year , an astounding 14% of the total federal budget.

In other words, one in every seven tax dollars is used just to pay interest on the amount of money the United States is borrowing.

But the serious conversations about cutting back on spending and raising taxes taking place in Europe are considerably less serious in the United States. So why isn’t the United States facing the same problems as France?

The United States’ biggest advantage is that it prints the world’s reserve currency. The majority of global transactions are conducted in US dollars, including key commodities like oil and gold.

Demand for dollars remains robust in large part because they’re considered safe: The United States’ transparency and commitment to the rule of law make the dollar the cornerstone of the global financial system — even if some of the shine has worn off over the past decade.

That also fuels demand for US Treasuries, widely considered the safest of safe-haven assets. Even in the midst of a global government bond sell-off, US bond rates remain lower than those of other Western economies. And when stocks went on a skid last week, investors were unafraid to turn to their traditional place of refuge, sending Treasury yields sharply lower in the process.

But the difference between France and the United States really comes down to one thing. As James Carville said: It’s the economy, stupid.

The United States also has a uniquely large and diverse economy that is far less susceptible to shocks than many of its smaller peers. AI in particular is producing an investment boom in the United States that is lifting the economy when several other sectors appear to be stagnating or in decline.

One key way to make deficits less relevant is to keep the economy growing strong. That makes the debt look puny by comparison.

So countries need to ask: What is the rate we’re paying — and is it sustainable for us to keep paying it based on our expected economic growth?”

“France and the UK are pretty close,” noted Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “But in the US, AI’s contributions to growth make it more likely we’ll manage our debts and navigate it much more gracefully.”

Economists warn: Don’t confuse the lack of a looming debt crisis in the United States with fiscal responsibility. It’s just that it can handle the problem better than France or the UK.

“That doesn’t mean we should take any solace in that,” added Zandi. “We’re just in a different place.”

Any time a European country faces a fiscal problem, it raises concerns about a contagion that could spread across the continent. But economists widely view France’s problems as contained within the country.

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The European Central Bank has signaled it would not need to intervene in France’s fiscal situation. But it could if it had to, and it is well-positioned to buy up a bunch of bonds of its member countries to limit any potential contagion effects, noted Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics.

Other European economies’ deficits are also much smaller by comparison. Some are expected to run surpluses this year.

And French political parties across the left and right have said they want to remain with the European Union — including French presidential frontrunner Marine Le Pen, a far-right candidate who once championed “Frexit” but has since backed off that pledge. Although Germany’s AfD party has advocated leaving the EU, it isn’t close to forming a government yet, Kenningham noted.

But an X factor could lead to a debt crisis outside France: the US “X date.” At some point next year, the United States will hit its debt ceiling again, and the new Congress will need to negotiate with President Donald Trump to raise it — a political football that could be particularly challenged by a lame duck president and a potentially Democratic-controlled Congress less willing to give in.

A failure to raise the debt ceiling threatens to force the United States to manufacture a default on its debt, even if it otherwise would be able to pay.

“You could construct a scenario in which we breach the debt limit by Halloween next year,” said Zandi. “And then you’ve got other issues.”

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法国正处于水深火热之中，它面临着一场政治和经济上的清算，这场清算对美国人来说有着一种危险的熟悉感。

该国正濒临财政危机，因为其支出超过了偿还能力。受能源成本上涨的推动，债券利率近几个月飙升，导致债务到期速度远超预期。提高税收和削减政府开支是潜在的解决方案之一，但这些决定在政治上不受欢迎，可能会进一步激怒本已愤怒的公众。在一个严重分裂的政府中，任何可行的解决方案都将面临预算之争的重重阻力。

这让你觉得耳熟吗？

越来越多的国家正面临着与法国类似的困境——尤其是英国——债务迅速增长、借贷成本飙升，以及缺乏足够的政治意愿来做出解决问题的艰难决定，这正是当前西方经济的现状。美国也未能幸免。

但相似之处可能只是表面上的。

法国的财政压力尤为严峻。危机蔓延至整个欧洲的风险较低。法国庞大的公共安全体系在政府支出中所占比例远高于美国。而且，美国经济独特的运行机制意味着美国目前不会面临成为下一个法国的迫在眉睫的危险。

这些并非新问题：欧洲的社会保障体系几十年来一直走在不可持续的道路上，经济学家和一些政治家多年来一直警告说，最终会为此付出代价。

但情况正在恶化。伊朗战争加剧了西方的财政困境。

国际货币基金组织上周报告称，自2月份以来，七国集团（G7）经济体10年期政府债券平均收益率上升超过1个百分点，达到近20年来的最高水平。

国际货币基金组织预测，到本十年末，这七个经济体的公共债务总额预计将超过其经济产出。这将是二战以来首次出现这种情况。

法国的公共债务约占其国内生产总值的 119%，是欧盟目标的两倍，其年度预算赤字占其国内生产总值的 5.4%。

肯特大学社会政策教授彼得·泰勒-古比表示：“在欧洲，人们越来越担心债券市场以及政府借贷所需的高利率。现在的情况已经到了不能再忽视的地步。如果我们继续忽视，将会陷入严重的危机。”

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法国各地爆发的骚乱只是更大范围的公共和政治危机的一个征兆。

从账面上看，美国的情况也大同小异：其32万亿美元的公共债务大致相当于美国年度GDP，而刚刚结清的2万亿美元预算赤字也超过了GDP的6%。美国公共债务的融资成本刚刚突破每年1万亿美元，占联邦预算总额的惊人比例——高达14%。

换句话说，每七个纳税人缴纳的税款中就有一个用于支付美国借款的利息。

但欧洲正在进行的关于削减开支和提高税收的严肃讨论，在美国却远没有那么严肃。那么，为什么美国没有面临和法国一样的问题呢？

美国最大的优势在于它发行世界储备货币。全球绝大多数交易都以美元结算，包括石油和黄金等关键大宗商品。

美元需求依然强劲，很大程度上是因为美元被认为是安全的：美国的透明度和对法治的承诺使美元成为全球金融体系的基石——即使在过去的十年里，美元的光环有所褪色。

这也推高了对美国国债的需求，美国国债被广泛认为是最安全的避险资产。即使在全球政府债券抛售潮中，美国国债利率仍然低于其他西方经济体。上周股市暴跌时，投资者毫不犹豫地转向他们传统的避险资产，导致美国国债收益率大幅下降。

但法国和美国之间的真正区别归根结底只有一点。正如詹姆斯·卡维尔所说：关键在于经济，笨蛋。

美国拥有规模庞大且多元化的经济体，因此比许多规模较小的经济体更能抵御冲击。尤其是在人工智能领域，它正推动美国经济蓬勃发展，在其他一些行业停滞不前甚至下滑的情况下，提振了整体经济。

降低赤字影响的关键途径之一是保持经济强劲增长。这样一来，债务相比之下就显得微不足道了。

因此，各国需要扪心自问：我们目前的支付水平是多少？根据我们预期的经济增长，我们是否能够持续支付这样的费用？

穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪指出：“法国和英国的情况非常接近。但在美国，人工智能对经济增长的贡献使我们更有可能管理好债务，并更优雅地应对债务问题。”

经济学家警告：不要把美国没有迫在眉睫的债务危机与财政责任混为一谈。这仅仅意味着美国比法国或英国更能妥善处理这个问题。

“但这并不意味着我们应该从中获得任何安慰，”赞迪补充道。“我们只是处境不同了。”

任何一个欧洲国家一旦面临财政问题，都会引发人们对危机可能蔓延至整个欧洲大陆的担忧。但经济学家普遍认为，法国的问题仅限于法国国内。

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欧洲央行已表示无需干预法国的财政状况。但凯投宏观首席欧洲经济学家安德鲁·肯宁汉姆指出，如有必要，欧洲央行可以出手干预，并且有能力大量购买成员国债券，以限制任何潜在的传染效应。

相比之下，其他欧洲经济体的赤字也小得多。预计其中一些经济体今年将实现盈余。

法国各政党，无论左翼还是右翼，都表示希望留在欧盟——包括法国总统候选人领跑者、极右翼候选人玛丽娜·勒庞，她曾大力支持“法国脱欧”，但后来放弃了这一承诺。肯宁汉姆指出，尽管德国选择党（AfD）主张脱离欧盟，但目前距离组建政府还很遥远。

但有一个未知因素可能导致法国以外的债务危机：美国的“X日期”。明年某个时候，美国的债务上限将再次触及，新一届国会需要与唐纳德·特朗普总统谈判提高债务上限——对于一位即将卸任的总统和可能由民主党掌控、更不愿意让步的国会来说，这无疑是一个棘手的政治难题。

如果未能提高债务上限，即使美国原本有能力偿还债务，也可能被迫人为制造债务违约。

“你可以设想这样一种情景：到明年万圣节，我们的债务就突破了上限，”赞迪说。“那样的话，就会出现其他问题。”