Desire for change, anti-Trump feelings fuel Democrats’ midterms advantage: CNN poll

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The Democratic Party, riding a tide of anti-Donald Trump sentiment, enters the final stretch of the midterm campaign with a 10-point advantage over Republicans nationwide in voters’ choice in their own congressional district, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

More than three-quarters of voters see this election as their chance to change things up in Washington, the poll finds. Trump’s approval rating stands at a record low of 32%, and voters express broad dissatisfaction with both the economy and the state of the country nearly two years into unified GOP control of the federal government. Those sentiments work against the GOP in its effort to hold on to Congress, even as some voters express skepticism that a Democratic win would bring meaningful improvement.

Democrats’ 49% to 39% advantage among registered voters nationally is the largest in CNN polling since just before the 2020 election, and rests on wide margins among traditional pillars of Democratic support such as Black voters (who favor the Democrats by 70 percentage points), Latino voters (+40), women (+21) and younger adults (+31), as well as a steep advantage among independents (+15) and those who say they’re extremely motivated to vote (+18).

Even with those broad advantages, the scale of the Democratic Party’s potential gains could be limited by mid-decade redistricting and the large number of competitive races in GOP-friendly territory. Should a 10-point margin in favor of the Democrats materialize in the nationwide popular vote, that would represent roughly a 13-point swing from the nationwide popular vote for House in 2024. But even a swing that large may not ultimately translate into deep-red pickups for the party, as many of this year’s competitive campaigns are playing out in places that Trump carried by double digits.

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The Democratic upper-hand has held over the past year, and the margin has widened in recent polling as cost-of-living concerns remain voters’ most important issue and Trump’s approval rating lands at historic lows in poll after poll . Roughly 6 in 10 voters this year say their midterm vote will be sending a message about Trump, and by a 2-to-1 margin, that’s a message of opposition rather than support.

Democrats top Republicans 46% to 37% among registered voters who call the economy their top concern, and Democrats are seen as the party better able to deal with the economy and cost of living. But roughly 3 in 10 overall say they think neither party would do a good job handling those issues, and a similar share say neither party has the right priorities.

Behind economic concerns, corruption in the government (19%) and the state of US democracy (18%) are the only other issues cited by more than 10% of voters as their top concern. About 4 in 10 voters say that neither party would do a better job handling corruption, with those who do have a preference giving a slight edge to the Democrats.

Trump’s approval rating in the poll is a new low by one point, and 7 points lower than his approval rating just before the 2018 midterms. The share who strongly approve of his presidency stands at just 13%, down 17 points from Trump’s last midterms.

Americans are judging Trump’s performance against a political landscape that looks very different than it did eight years ago. In the autumn of 2018, a 55% majority of the public said things in the US were generally going well, and 69% called economic conditions good. Weeks before the 2026 midterms, those numbers stand at 30% and 26%, respectively.

Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

And while in 2018, the economy was a bright spot for Trump – most approved of his handling of the issue, even while his ratings stood underwater overall – it’s now the factor most weighing him down.

Trump’s approval ratings on economic issues are lower than his rating overall, with 27% approving on the economy and just 23% on inflation. Two-thirds of Americans, including roughly one-third of Republicans, say that his policies have made economic conditions worse. And even as majorities say that Trump has gone too far in using his presidential power and overseeing deportations, nearly 7 in 10 say he has not gone far enough in trying to reduce prices.

Democratic opposition to Trump, of course, was potent even in the brighter environment of 2018. But the survey suggests it’s the collapse in economic sentiment that’s further eroded Trump’s base throughout his second term in office, leaving him in his most precarious position to date. Trump’s approval rating among Republicans hits a new numeric low in the poll at 74%, down from 88% in February 2025.

Younger Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are particularly sour on Trump’s presidency and the state of the country. Nearly 4 in 10 Republican-aligned adults younger than 45 disapprove of Trump. They also rate Trump roughly 20 points worse than older Republicans on the economy, inflation and the way he sets priorities. Although younger voters are generally less motivated to vote than older ones, the gap is particularly large on the Republican side: There’s a 29-point gap in strong motivation to vote between younger and older Republican-aligned adults, compared with a 15-point gap on the Democratic side.

Trump’s support has also eroded among White Americans without college degrees, a group that has formed a core part of the president’s Republican base. Trump’s approval is underwater among the group: 45% approve, down from 63% at the start of his second term. And strong disapproval is now almost double strong approval among this group (40% to 22%).

That negativity appears tied to economic concerns. While a majority of White adults without degrees still approve of Trump’s handling of immigration (53%) and voting rights and election integrity (55%), 64% now disapprove of his handling of the economy and 68% disapprove on inflation.

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Amid all the negativity about Trump, though, a sizable share of voters say they don’t think the country would be better off if Democrats won control of Congress either. In the new poll, 41% of voters say the country would be better off should Democrats win in November, 37% that it would be worse off and 22% say it wouldn’t make any difference. The sense that a change in power in Congress wouldn’t move the needle for the country is notably high among independent voters (36% feel that way), Latino voters (29%) and political moderates (29%).

Both parties continue to have net negative favorability ratings. The 18% of voters who hold negative views of both parties break 48% for the Democrat in their district to 28% for the Republican, with 18% saying they don’t support either party’s candidate. This group overwhelmingly says their votes are about changing things in Washington (90%) but largely sees neither party as able to do a better job of bringing it (65%).

Roughly half of registered voters in the poll say they plan to vote on Election Day, with the rest planning to vote early or by mail; about 13% overall say they have already cast their ballot.

Those who’ve already voted break overwhelmingly for Democrats – 70% to 29%. Those who have yet to cast a ballot and will be the focus of the final days of campaigning are much more closely divided: 46% favor the Democrat in their district to 41% who favor the Republican.

CNN’s Isabelle LaBianco and Katie Doran contributed to this report.

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from October 15-18 among a random national sample of 1,701 US adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 1,206 registered voters. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points; it is 3.3 points among registered voters.

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根据 SSRS 进行的 CNN 最新民调显示，民主党凭借反特朗普情绪的浪潮，在全国范围内选民对其所在国会选区的选择中领先共和党 10 个百分点，进入中期选举的最后阶段。

民调显示，超过四分之三的选民将此次选举视为改变华盛顿现状的机会。特朗普的支持率跌至历史新低32%，选民普遍对经济和国家现状感到不满，而此时共和党已全面掌控联邦政府近两年。这些不满情绪不利于共和党保住国会控制权，尽管一些选民怀疑民主党获胜能否带来实质性改善。

民主党在全国注册选民中以 49% 对 39% 的优势领先，这是自 2020 年大选前夕以来 CNN 民调中最大的优势，这一优势主要建立在民主党传统支持群体（如黑人选民（支持民主党的比例高出 70 个百分点）、拉丁裔选民（+40）、女性（+21）和年轻成年人（+31））的巨大优势之上，同时也在独立选民（+15）和那些表示自己投票积极性极高的选民（+18）中占据显著优势。

即便拥有这些广泛的优势，民主党潜在的收益规模也可能受到中期选​​区重划以及共和党传统票仓中大量竞争激烈的选区的限制。如果民主党在全国普选中以10个百分点的优势获胜，那么与2024年众议院选举的全国普选结果相比，民主党的得票率将大约上升13个百分点。但即便如此大的幅度，最终也未必能转化为民主党在共和党传统票仓的胜利，因为今年许多竞争激烈的选区都曾是特朗普以两位数优势获胜的地区。

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过去一年来，民主党一直占据优势，而且随着生活成本问题仍然是选民最关心的议题，以及特朗普的支持率屡创新低，近期民调显示民主党的优势进一步扩大。大约十分之六的选民表示，他们今年的中期选举投票将表达对特朗普的看法，而且以二比一的比例，这种反对的声音远大于支持的声音。

在将经济视为首要关注点的登记选民中，民主党以46%对37%的支持率领先共和党，民主党也被认为更有能力应对经济和生活成本问题。但总体而言，约有十分之三的受访者认为两党都无法妥善处理这些问题，另有相当比例的受访者认为两党的优先事项都不对。

除了经济问题之外，政府腐败（19%）和美国民主现状（18%）是仅有的另外两个被超过10%的选民列为首要关注的问题。约有40%的选民认为，两党在处理腐败问题上并无优劣之分，而在有倾向性的选民中，民主党略占优势。

特朗普在民调中的支持率创下新低，比2018年中期选举前的支持率低了1个百分点，比之前的低了7个百分点。强烈支持他执政的选民比例仅为13%，比特朗普上次中期选举时下降了17个百分点。

美国人如今评判特朗普执政表现时，所处的政治格局与八年前已截然不同。2018年秋季，55%的公众认为美国整体形势良好，69%的人认为经济状况良好。而距离2026年中期选举仅剩几周，这两个数字分别降至30%和26%。

乔纳森·恩斯特/路透社

尽管在 2018 年，经济是特朗普的一大亮点——大多数人认可他对经济问题的处理方式，即使他的总体支持率处于负值——但现在经济却成了拖累他的最主要因素。

特朗普在经济问题上的支持率低于其整体支持率，仅有27%的人认可他的经济政策，而对通货膨胀的支持率更是只有23%。三分之二的美国人，包括大约三分之一的共和党人，认为他的政策加剧了经济困境。尽管大多数人认为特朗普滥用总统权力、干预遣返行动过度，但仍有近七成的人认为他在降低物价方面做得不够。

当然，即便在2018年相对乐观的经济环境下，民主党对特朗普的反对也十分强烈。但民调显示，经济信心的崩溃进一步削弱了特朗普在其第二个任期内的支持率，使他陷入了迄今为止最为岌岌可危的境地。民调显示，特朗普在共和党人中的支持率跌至74%，创历史新低，远低于2025年2月的88%。

年轻的共和党人和倾向共和党的独立人士对特朗普的总统任期和国家现状尤其不满。近四成45岁以下的共和党支持者不认可特朗普。他们对特朗普在经济、通胀以及优先事项设定方面的评价也比年长的共和党人低约20个百分点。尽管年轻选民的投票积极性普遍低于年长选民，但共和党内部的差距尤为显著：年轻共和党支持者和年长共和党支持者在投票积极性方面相差29个百分点，而民主党支持者的这一差距仅为15个百分点。

特朗普在没有大学学历的白人美国人中的支持率也出现了下滑，而这一群体一直是特朗普共和党支持者的核心部分。目前，特朗普在该群体中的支持率已跌至负值：支持率仅为45%，远低于他第二个任期开始时的63%。强烈反对者的比例几乎是强烈支持者的两倍（40%对22%）。

这种负面情绪似乎与经济担忧有关。虽然大多数没有大学学历的白人成年人仍然认可特朗普在移民问题（53%）以及投票权和选举公正性（55%）方面的处理方式，但现在有64%的人不认可他对经济的处理方式，68%的人不认可他对通货膨胀的处理方式。

Erik S. Lesser/AFP via Getty Images

尽管对特朗普的负面评价铺天盖地，但仍有相当一部分选民表示，即使民主党赢得国会控制权，国家也不会变得更好。最新民调显示，41%的选民认为，如果民主党在11月胜选，国家会变得更好；37%的选民认为会更糟；22%的选民认为不会有任何区别。认为国会权力更迭不会对国家产生重大影响的观点在独立选民（36%）、拉丁裔选民（29%）和政治温和派选民（29%）中尤为突出。

两党的支持率仍然为负。对两党都持负面看法的选民占18%，其中48%支持民主党候选人，28%支持共和党候选人，另有18%表示不支持任何一方的候选人。这部分选民普遍认为，他们投票是为了改变华盛顿的现状（90%），但他们认为两党在这方面都做得不够好（65%）。

民意调查显示，约有一半的注册选民表示他们计划在选举日投票，其余选民计划提前投票或邮寄投票；约有 13% 的选民表示他们已经投了票。

已经投票的选民绝大多数支持民主党——70%对29%。尚未投票的选民，也就是竞选最后阶段的焦点，他们的意见则更为接近：46%支持本选区的民主党候选人，41%支持共和党候选人。

CNN的伊莎贝尔·拉比安科和凯蒂·多兰对本报道亦有贡献。

CNN委托SSRS于10月15日至18日对1701名美国成年人进行了全国随机抽样调查，样本来自一个基于概率的样本库，其中包括1206名登记选民。调查采用在线或电话访谈的方式进行。完整样本的抽样误差为正负2.9个百分点；登记选民的抽样误差为3.3个百分点。