Will Russia’s diesel shipment to the US lower prices before midterms?

Moscow dispatches its inaugural diesel shipment to the US, aiming to ease fuel shortages as midterm elections loom.

Diesel prices topped $6 per gallon ($1.59) in September and have continued to climb [File: Jeff Chiu/AP]

Russia is set to send its first tanker carrying diesel fuel to the United States on Thursday , as part of an agreement with Washington aimed at easing fuel shortages that have pushed US diesel prices higher before next month’s midterm elections.

Moscow announced on Wednesday that the tanker was headed to an undisclosed US port and was scheduled to depart on Thursday. The shipment is part of a broader effort to send more fuel to the US, even as Russia faces its own supply constraints and US consumers grapple with elevated prices at the pump.

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The announcement comes as the White House seeks to contain rising energy costs as cost-of-living concerns weigh on Americans in the run-up to the contentious midterm elections.

Voters increasingly trust Democrats over Republicans on economic issues, according to a recent Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll, with 37 percent of voters believing Democrats are more trusted on economics and 28 percent trusting Republicans more, while confidence in President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy has slumped, with 28 percent approving of Trump’s handling of the economy.

The first shipment was announced during a visit to St Petersburg by US special envoy Steve Witkoff, who held talks with Russian officials.

Is this a single shipment or multiple?

The first tanker is part of a broader commitment to increase Russian fuel supplies to the US, rather than a one-off delivery.

Trump had previously said Russia would export 300,000 tonnes of diesel fuel. It would be followed by another 500,000 tonnes in November and 1 million tonnes “immediately thereafter”.

Russian officials said on Wednesday that the initial shipment would be the first of several.

However, the scale and timing of those shipments remain uncertain. Russia has been dealing with domestic fuel shortages linked to Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries, which have disrupted refining capacity and forced Moscow to introduce restrictions on fuel exports.

The ability to fulfil the promised deliveries will depend on how quickly Russia can restore production while meeting its own domestic demand.

The deal also comes after Trump called off plans for another round of sanctions targeting Russia. Among the proposed measures was a 100 percent tariff on goods from major purchasers of Russian crude oil, including China and India.

Will the shipment lower prices before the midterms?

Analysts say the first shipment is unlikely to deliver meaningful relief to US consumers before the midterm elections. US retail diesel prices topped $6 a gallon ($1.59 per litre) in September and have remained elevated.

On Wednesday, the national average stood at $6.31 a gallon ($1.67 per litre), according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), down from $6.51 ($1.72 per litre) a month earlier, marking a 3.1 percent decrease but still significantly higher than this time last year, at $3.62 ($0.96 per litre).

“The volumes Russia can provide are small in comparison to the global shortage and US’s own production. The cargo is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on supply or meaningfully lower the price,” Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Al Jazeera.

“The reported shipment is equivalent to roughly two hours of US distillate consumption. Even if it arrives as planned, it will make very little difference to national supply,” Aarathi Krishnan, CEO of Raksha Intelligence, told Al Jazeera.

The first tanker may not even reach the US before voters head to the polls, Ziemba said. Departing on Thursday would mark the beginning of its journey, not the date the fuel becomes available to consumers.

Any sustained reduction in prices would depend on a broader improvement in global supply, rather than a single delivery.

“Russia’s ability to supply more diesel depends partly on the condition of its refineries. Ukraine’s attacks affect those facilities. And Washington’s desire for lower fuel prices creates an interest in reducing that disruption,” Krishnan added.

Would a ceasefire impact fuel prices long term?

A long-term ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine could help ease pressure on energy markets by allowing damaged Russian refineries to be rebuilt and production to increase.

“This [the current agreement] is more about political posturing to get the US to further increase pressure on Ukraine and align with Russia,” Ziemba said.

She added that meaningful relief for the global oil market would depend in large part on developments in the Middle East, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed before the US-Israel attack on Iran.

The Russian shipment comes as conflict involving Iran and disruptions to energy shipping have intensified pressure on global fuel markets more broadly. There were at least 18 attacks on vessels over the previous two weeks, according to Kpler, a data analytics platform. On Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told the Financial Times that Iran was fully prepared to defend itself.

The Russian agreement is unlikely to resolve the underlying supply problem on its own without a chance to rebuild its refineries.

“The agreement may help individual buyers or provide some immediate reassurance to traders. But sustained price relief will depend on actual increases in available diesel, which Russia has not yet demonstrated it can deliver,” Krishnan said.

随着中期选举临近，莫斯科向美国运送了首批柴油，旨在缓解燃料短缺问题。

9月份柴油价格突破每加仑6美元（1.59美元），并且持续上涨。[图片：Jeff Chiu/AP]

俄罗斯将于周四向美国派遣第一艘载有柴油的油轮，这是与华盛顿达成的一项协议的一部分，旨在缓解燃料短缺问题，防止美国柴油价格在下个月的中期选举前上涨。

莫斯科周三宣布，这艘油轮正驶往美国一个未公开的港口，计划于周四启航。此次运输是俄罗斯向美国输送更多燃料的更广泛计划的一部分，尽管俄罗斯自身也面临燃料供应紧张，而美国消费者则正饱受高油价之苦。

列表 1/4：普京和泽连斯基支持美乌三方和平谈判

列表 2/4：俄罗斯释放被监禁四年的美国人斯蒂芬·哈伯德

马克龙突访沙特，法国确保额外柴油供应（共四条，此为第三条）

俄罗斯将在特朗普协议框架下向美国派遣首艘柴油油轮（共4条记录，此为第4条）。

白宫宣布这一消息之际，正值美国民众在充满争议的中期选举前夕，因生活成本上涨而倍感压力之时，他们正努力控制不断上涨的能源成本。

根据《华盛顿邮报》-ABC新闻-益普索最近的一项民意调查显示，选民在经济问题上越来越信任民主党人而不是共和党人，37%的选民认为民主党人在经济方面更值得信赖，28%的选民更信任共和党人；与此同时，对唐纳德·特朗普总统处理经济问题的信心大幅下降，只有28%的人认可特朗普处理经济的方式。

首批货物是在美国特使史蒂夫·威特科夫访问圣彼得堡期间宣布的，他与俄罗斯官员举行了会谈。

这是一次发货还是多次发货？

第一艘油轮是俄罗斯向美国增加燃料供应这一更广泛承诺的一部分，而不是一次性交付。

特朗普此前曾表示，俄罗斯将出口30万吨柴油，随后在11月再出口50万吨，并“紧随其后”出口100万吨。

俄罗斯官员周三表示，首批货物将是多批货物中的第一批。

然而，这些货物的运输规模和时间仍不确定。俄罗斯一直面临着国内燃料短缺的问题，这与乌克兰无人机袭击其炼油厂有关，袭击导致炼油能力受损，迫使莫斯科对燃料出口实施限制。

能否履行承诺的交付义务，取决于俄罗斯在满足自身国内需求的同时，能够多快恢复生产。

此外，此前特朗普取消了对俄罗斯实施新一轮制裁的计划。拟议措施包括对包括中国和印度在内的俄罗斯原油主要买家的商品征收100%的关税。

这批货物能否在中期选举前降低价格？

分析人士表示，首批柴油不太可能在中期选举前为美国消费者带来实质性缓解。9月份，美国零售柴油价格突破每加仑6美元（每升1.59美元），并且一直居高不下。

据美国汽车协会 (AAA) 的数据，周三全国平均汽油价格为每加仑 6.31 美元（每升 1.67 美元），低于一个月前的 6.51 美元（每升 1.72 美元），降幅为 3.1%，但仍远高于去年同期的 3.62 美元（每升 0.96 美元）。

“与全球短缺和美国自身的产量相比，俄罗斯能够提供的数量很少。这批货物不太可能对供应产生实质性影响，也不太可能大幅降低价格，”新美国安全中心兼职高级研究员雷切尔·齐姆巴告诉半岛电视台。

Raksha Intelligence首席执行官Aarathi Krishnan告诉半岛电视台：“据报道，这批货物的量大约相当于美国两小时的馏分油消耗量。即使按计划到达，对全国供应的影响也微乎其微。”

齐姆巴表示，首艘油轮甚至可能在选民投票前都无法抵达美国。周四的启航只是旅程的开始，而非燃油真正交付消费者之日。

价格的持续下降取决于全球供应的全面改善，而不是单一的供应量。

克里希南补充说：“俄罗斯能否增加柴油供应，部分取决于其炼油厂的状况。乌克兰的袭击影响了这些设施。而华盛顿希望降低燃油价格，因此也希望减少这种干扰。”

停火会对燃油价格产生长期影响吗？

俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的长期停火可以帮助缓解能源市场的压力，因为这将允许受损的俄罗斯炼油厂重建并提高产量。

“这项协议更多的是一种政治姿态，目的是让美国进一步加大对乌克兰的压力，并与俄罗斯结盟，”齐姆巴说。

她补充说，全球石油市场能否得到实质性缓解，很大程度上取决于中东局势的发展，特别是霍尔木兹海峡的局势。霍尔木兹海峡是重要的航运通道，在美以袭击伊朗之前，全球约五分之一的石油和液化天然气供应都要经过这里。

俄罗斯此次货运正值伊朗冲突和能源运输中断加剧全球燃料市场整体压力之际。据数据分析平台Kpler统计，过去两周至少发生了18起船只袭击事件。周三，伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇告诉《金融时报》，伊朗已做好充分准备保卫自身安全。

如果没有机会重建炼油厂，俄罗斯的协议不太可能单独解决根本的供应问题。

克里希南表示：“这项协议或许能帮助个别买家，或给贸易商带来一些即时的安心感。但价格能否持续下降，取决于柴油供应量的实际增长，而俄罗斯尚未证明其有能力做到这一点。”