A top election forecaster moves Ohio governor’s race from ‘tossup’ to ‘leans Democratic’

On the campaign trail

• Governor’s race rocked: Amid the controversy over Ohio GOP gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign ad featuring his opponent Amy Acton’s estranged mother, a top election forecaster is now describing the race as favorable to Democrats after previously predicting it to be a “tossup.” For months, the battle to lead Ohio has been one of the more contentious contests on the national radar.

• Democrat’s comeback attempt: Former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown is ahead of incumbent Sen. Jon Husted in two new polls, and Ohio is No. 2 on CNN’s latest ranking of Senate seats most likely to flip.

• Trump’s trail blitz: President Donald Trump’s latest red-state stop is in Iowa — which he won by double digits in 2024 — where he will rally tonight for Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, who has broken with him on Iran. A CNN Poll of Polls indicates a razor thin Senate race in Iowa .

Democratic Senate candidates are leading in these 3 GOP states, new polls show

Less than two weeks ahead of the November 3 elections, Democratic Senate candidates have a slight lead in three Republican states, according to new polls from The Cook Political Report.

Here’s what the polls found:

In Iowa: Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Ashley Hinson by two percentage points (46% to 44%)

In Ohio : Democrat Sherrod Brown is ahead of Republican Jon Husted by six percentage points (49% to 43%)

In Texas : Democrat James Talarico holds a five-percentage-point advantage over Republican Ken Paxton (49% to 44%)

The polls also found that voters trust these Democratic candidates over their opponents when it comes to the top issues of the midterm elections: affordability and corruption. The report warned, however, that the races are not a done deal, especially in Iowa, where the lead falls within the poll’s margin of error.

The Cook Political Report also polled voters on the gubernatorial races in these three states and found Democratic candidates leading in two of them.

In Iowa : Democrat Rob Sand has a 11-point lead over Republican Zach Lahn (54% to 43%)

In Ohio : Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by five percentage points (49% to 44%)

In Texas : Republican Greg Abbott is ahead of Democrat Gina Hinojosa by two percentage points (48% to 46%)

Sabato's Crystal Ball moves Ohio governor’s race from "tossup" to "leans Democratic"

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a top election forecaster, is now describing the gubernatorial race in Ohio as favorable to Democrats after previously predicting it to be a “tossup.”

This week, Ramaswamy faced backlash, including from within his own party , for an ad that featured Acton’s estranged mother.

All eyes on Ohio as Ramaswamy ad draws backlash and polls show Dem edge in Senate race

Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s ad targeting his Democratic opponent is drawing bipartisan criticism , with one GOP operative telling CNN there is a sense he could jeopardize the party’s brand.

“I would not have run that ad,” Senate candidate Jon Husted told the Associated Press. He’s one of multiple Ohio Republicans criticizing the move.

A longtime political adviser told CNN that in a culture where the extremes have gone so far, many think “we can take it further than before and there will be no consequences and no accountability.” Here’s that conversation:

And Republican Texas lawmaker Dade Phelan told CNN Ramaswamy’s move “may have sealed the deal” for Acton.

The criticism from Ohio Republicans comes despite Vice President JD Vance’s defense of the ad — and warning not to criticize it.

Vance’s position, too, has faced backlash :

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton told CNN she is “not stunned” by the ad featuring her estranged mother calling her a liar . She said a previous ad featuring her mother that aired while she was a health official during the pandemic was not covered as extensively by the media “because it was so clear that she wasn’t well.”

Even before the ad featuring Acton’s mom, the race had become filled with brutal attack ads. Ohio voters say they’re turned off by ads from both sides.

In the state’s Senate race, a Democrat is fighting for a comeback. Former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown is ahead of incumbent Husted in two new polls: one from Fox News gives Brown a 5-point lead and another from the Cook Political Report’s Battleground Project has him up by 6.

Ohio is No. 2 on CNN’s latest ranking of Senate seats most likely to flip.

CNN’s Tori B. Powell, Patrick Svitek, Lauren Fox and Kit Maher contributed reporting.

"It's quite beneath you," El-Sayed tells Rogers in Michigan Senate debate

Michigan Senate candidates Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed had a tense exchange over accusations that El-Sayed has ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Michigan Senate candidates Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed had a tense exchange over accusations that El-Sayed has ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. El-Sayed, who has denounced the group, told Rogers, “It’s really quite beneath you to call into question my loyalty to the Constitution."

What you missed in last night's Michigan Senate race debate

The Michigan Senate debate between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers was bitterly personal and ferociously contested — as befits a contest that could decide the chamber’s majority.

Each candidate had a simple task.

El-Sayed, the former executive director of the Detroit Health Department, needed to pin Rogers, a former congressman, to the deeply unpopular President Donald Trump and his economy — and to assuage questions from moderates about his politics.

Meanwhile, Rogers is trying to win in a state currently run by Democrats while dragging Trump’s historically low approval ratings behind him. His only hope is to disqualify El-Sayed as an acceptable senator in the eyes of voters.

During an at-times fierce debate, the two traded accusations over El-Sayed’s loyalty to America and Rogers’ loyalty to Trump.

A CNN Poll of Polls finds no clear leader between El-Sayed and Rogers.

在竞选活动中

• 俄亥俄州州长竞选风云突变：俄亥俄州共和党州长候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米(Vivek Ramaswamy)的竞选广告中出现了其对手艾米·阿克顿(Amy Acton)疏远的母亲，引发争议。此前，一位顶级选举预测专家曾预测该选情“势均力敌”，但现在却表示民主党占优。几个月来，俄亥俄州州长之争一直是全国关注的焦点之一。

• 民主党卷土重来：前俄亥俄州参议员谢罗德·布朗在两项新的民意调查中领先于现任参议员乔恩·赫斯特，俄亥俄州在 CNN 最新发布的最有可能翻盘的参议院席位排名中位列第二。

• 特朗普的竞选攻势：唐纳德·特朗普总统最新一站的“红色州”是爱荷华州——他在2024年大选中以两位数优势赢得了该州——他今晚将在那里为参议员候选人阿什利·辛森助选，辛森在伊朗问题上与他立场相左。CNN的民调汇总显示，爱荷华州的参议员竞选形势异常胶着。

最新民调显示，民主党参议员候选人在这三个共和党占优势的州领先。

距离 11 月 3 日的选举不到两周，根据库克政治报告的最新民调显示，民主党参议院候选人在三个共和党州略微领先。

以下是民意调查结果：

在爱荷华州：民主党候选人乔什·图雷克领先共和党候选人阿什利·欣森两个百分点（46%对44%）。

在俄亥俄州：民主党候选人谢罗德·布朗领先共和党候选人乔恩·赫斯特6个百分点（49%对43%）。

在德克萨斯州：民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科以5个百分点的优势领先共和党候选人肯·帕克斯顿（49%对44%）。

民调还显示，在本次中期选举的两大关键议题——住房负担能力和腐败问题上，选民更信任这些民主党候选人，而非他们的对手。然而，报告也警告说，选情尚未尘埃落定，尤其是在爱荷华州，目前的领先优势仍在民调的误差范围内。

《库克政治报告》还对这三个州的州长竞选进行了选民调查，发现民主党候选人在其中两个州领先。

在爱荷华州：民主党候选人罗布·桑德领先共和党候选人扎克·拉恩11个百分点（54%对43%）。

在俄亥俄州：民主党候选人艾米·阿克顿领先共和党候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米五个百分点（49%对44%）。

在德克萨斯州：共和党候选人格雷格·阿博特领先民主党候选人吉娜·希诺霍萨两个百分点（48%对46%）。

萨巴托的“水晶球”预测将俄亥俄州州长竞选的形势从“势均力敌”调整为“倾向民主党”。

顶级选举预测机构萨巴托水晶球(Sabato's Crystal Ball)此前预测俄亥俄州州长竞选“势均力敌”，但现在已将竞选形势描述为对民主党有利。

本周，拉马斯瓦米因一则广告遭到强烈反对，其中包括来自他自己党内的反对，该广告中出现了阿克顿疏远的母亲。

拉马斯瓦米竞选广告引发强烈反弹，民调显示民主党在参议院选举中领先，俄亥俄州成为关注焦点

共和党州长候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米针对其民主党对手的竞选广告引发了两党批评，一位共和党人士告诉 CNN，他们感觉此举可能会损害共和党的品牌形象。

“我不会投放那样的广告，”参议员候选人乔恩·赫斯特德告诉美联社。他是多位批评此举的俄亥俄州共和党人之一。

一位资深政治顾问告诉CNN，在当今极端主义盛行的文化中，许多人认为“我们可以比以前更加肆无忌惮，而不会有任何后果，也不会有人为此负责。”以下是他们的对话：

德克萨斯州共和党议员戴德·费兰告诉 CNN，拉马斯瓦米的举动“可能已经促成了”阿克顿的交易。

尽管副总统 JD Vance 为这则广告辩护，并警告不要批评它，但俄亥俄州共和党人仍然提出了批评。

范斯的立场也遭到了强烈反对：

民主党州长候选人艾米·阿克顿告诉CNN，她对那则让她疏远的母亲指责她撒谎的广告“并不感到惊讶”。她说，此前在她母亲担任卫生官员期间，也曾播出过一则由她母亲出镜的广告，但媒体对此报道并不多，“因为很明显她当时身体状况不佳”。

甚至在艾克顿母亲出镜的广告播出之前，这场竞选就已经充斥着恶毒的攻击性广告。俄亥俄州的选民表示，他们对双方的广告都感到反感。

在俄亥俄州参议员竞选中，一位民主党候选人正力图东山再起。两项最新民调显示，前俄亥俄州参议员谢罗德·布朗的支持率领先于现任参议员赫斯特：福克斯新闻的民调显示布朗领先5个百分点，库克政治报告“战场项目”的民调则显示他领先6个百分点。

在 CNN 最新发布的参议院席位最有可能易手排名中，俄亥俄州位列第二。

CNN的Tori B. Powell、Patrick Svitek、Lauren Fox和Kit Maher对此报道亦有贡献。

“这太有失你的身份了，”埃尔-赛义德在密歇根州参议院辩论中对罗杰斯说道。

密歇根州参议院候选人共和党人迈克·罗杰斯和民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德就埃尔-赛义德与穆斯林兄弟会有联系的指控展开了激烈的争论。

密歇根州参议员候选人，共和党人迈克·罗杰斯和民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德，就埃尔-赛义德与穆斯林兄弟会有关联的指控展开了激烈的争论。埃尔-赛义德已经公开谴责了该组织，他对罗杰斯说：“你竟然质疑我对宪法的忠诚，真是太没品了。”

你错过了昨晚密歇根州参议员竞选辩论的哪些内容？

密歇根州参议院民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德和共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯之间的辩论充满了激烈的个人恩怨和残酷的竞争——正如一场可能决定参议院多数席位的竞争一样。

每位候选人都有一项简单的任务。

底特律卫生局前执行主任埃尔-赛义德需要将前国会议员罗杰斯与极不受欢迎的总统唐纳德·特朗普及其经济政策联系起来，并以此来平息温和派对其政治立场的质疑。

与此同时，罗杰斯正试图在一个目前由民主党掌控的州赢得选举，而特朗普的支持率却处于历史低位。他唯一的希望就是让埃尔-赛义德在选民眼中失去参议员的资格。

在一场时而激烈的辩论中，两人就埃尔-赛义德对美国的忠诚和罗杰斯对特朗普的忠诚互相指责。

CNN对多项民调的综合分析显示，埃尔-赛义德和罗杰斯之间没有明显的领先者。