White evangelical support for Trump slips but still strong as midterms near

A new poll finds white evangelicals still outpace other demographic groups in supporting Trump, as he rallies the Republican base.

Congregants Kathleen Juneau and her husband Ron Juneau gather in support of then-Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump in Largo, Florida, in 2024 [File: Octavio Jones/Reuters]

United States President Donald Trump’s support among white evangelical Protestant voters remains strong but has slipped since he retook office in January 2025, according to a new poll.

A survey released this month by the news agency Reuters and research firm Ipsos found that Trump’s support among the group had tumbled to 63 percent, down from 77 percent at the time of his second inauguration.

list 1 of 3 Why do the US midterms matter for Trump and Congress?

list 2 of 3 US congressional candidate Brad Lander detained in West Bank

list 3 of 3 Trump says AI data centres should pay ‘dividends’ in pre-midterm shift

The shift comes as Trump’s approval rating drops to an all-time low of 31 percent.

White evangelicals are considered a key Republican demographic, and the decline could prove significant during the midterm elections on November 3, when the right-wing party will seek to defend its majorities in Congress.

Democrats remain widely favoured to take control of the US House of Representatives in the election. Their chances of flipping the Senate too are increasing amid widespread discontent over affordability and the US-Israeli war on Iran.

But experts say Republicans are counting on their base to counter signs of a Democratic surge at the polls.

On Wednesday, Trump campaigned in South Carolina, located in the southern “Bible Belt”, where exit polls found six in 10 Republican voters were white evangelicals in the 2024 presidential primary.

Trump carried the state by nearly 18 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, but polls have shown Republican Senate candidate Darline Graham holding only a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Annie Andrews just two weeks ahead of the midterm vote.

As with many of his campaign appearances, Trump focused his South Carolina speech on several social issues that resonate with conservative Christians, including policies related to transgender people. During the rally, he referred to Andrews with an anti-transgender slur.

“She’s a fanatical transgender activist,” Trump said at a different point in his speech, despite Andrews skewing moderate on the issue within the Democratic Party. “How the hell do you run in South Carolina? Am I in a different state?”

Long a key demographic in Trump’s coalition, white evangelicals accounted for nearly a third of Trump’s winning coalition in 2024, according ⁠to a Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) survey and a validated-voter analysis by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center.

The US president has been able to maintain support from key evangelical leaders despite a series of scandals at odds with the conservative values they espouse. Trump has faced allegations of sexual misconduct and extramarital affairs, which he denies.

All told, about 80 percent of white evangelical voters cast their ballots for Trump in the 2024 general election. The demographic makes up about 13 percent of the overall US population.

Beyond states like South Carolina, evangelicals in the Midwestern states of Iowa and Kansas, as well as the Southern state of Texas, could be key to the Republican Party maintaining its hold on the US Senate.

Christian faith leaders are challenging Republicans in several top races, including Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist Church pastor, in Kansas, and James Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, in Texas.

Both Hamilton and Talarico represent mainline Protestant denominations, not evangelical ones.

White evangelicals’ voter trends are distinct from other evangelical groups. For example, Black Protestant evangelicals, a vanguard of the US civil rights movement, have remained a key Democratic voting bloc.

Still, support for Trump among evangelicals remains strong compared with other demographic groups.

It remains unclear if shifting attitudes towards Trump would affect conservative turnout during the midterm elections, in which the US president is not on the ballot.

The Reuters news agency noted that white evangelicals were the only demographic it tracks that surpassed 60 percent support for Trump in the final stretch of the midterms.

The drop in support among the group was less pronounced than for Trump’s overall approval rating, tumbling 14 percentage points compared with a 16-point decline among Americans overall.

一项新的民意调查发现，白人福音派基督徒对特朗普的支持率仍然高于其他人口群体，特朗普正在巩固共和党的基本盘。

2024年，在佛罗里达州拉戈市，教友凯瑟琳·朱诺和她的丈夫罗恩·朱诺聚集在一起，支持当时的共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普。[图片：奥克塔维奥·琼斯/路透社]

最新民调显示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在白人福音派新教选民中的支持率依然强劲，但自他于2025年1月再次就职以来有所下滑。

本月路透社和益普索研究公司发布的一项调查显示，特朗普在该群体中的支持率已跌至 63%，低于他第二次就职时的 77%。

列表 1/3：为什么美国中期选举对特朗普和国会很重要？

名单之二：美国国会候选人布拉德·兰德在西岸被拘留

特朗普在期中选举前夕表示，人工智能数据中心应该带来“红利”，这是他发表的3条声明中的第3条。

这一转变正值特朗普的支持率跌至历史新低31%之际。

白人福音派教徒被认为是共和党的重要选民群体，他们的减少可能会在 11 月 3 日的中期选举中产生重大影响，届时这个右翼政党将寻求保住其在国会的多数席位。

民主党仍被普遍看好在本次选举中掌控美国众议院。由于民众对生活成本和美以对伊朗的战争普遍不满，他们夺回参议院控制权的可能性也在增加。

但专家表示，共和党人指望他们的基本盘能够抵消民主党在选举中支持率飙升的迹象。

周三，特朗普在位于南部“圣经地带”的南卡罗来纳州进行竞选活动。出口民调显示，在2024年总统初选中，该州十分之六的共和党选民是白人福音派教徒。

特朗普在 2024 年总统大选中以近 18 个百分点的优势赢得了该州，但民调显示，在距离中期选举投票仅剩两周之际，共和党参议员候选人达琳·格雷厄姆仅以微弱优势领先于民主党挑战者安妮·安德鲁斯。

与他以往的许多竞选活动一样，特朗普在南卡罗来纳州的演讲重点放在了几个能引起保守派基督徒共鸣的社会议题上，包括与跨性别者相关的政策。在集会上，他用反跨性别者的侮辱性词语称呼安德鲁斯。

“她是个狂热的跨性别活动家，”特朗普在演讲的另一段中说道，尽管安德鲁斯在民主党内对这一问题持温和立场。“你到底是怎么在南卡罗来纳州竞选的？难道我身处另一个州吗？”

长期以来，白人福音派一直是特朗普联盟中的关键群体。根据公共宗教研究所 (PRRI) 的一项调查和无党派的皮尤研究中心对选民的验证分析，白人福音派在 2024 年特朗普的获胜联盟中占了近三分之一。

尽管美国总统特朗普的一系列丑闻与福音派领袖所倡导的保守价值观相悖，但他仍然能够维持这些领袖的支持。特朗普曾面临性行为不端和婚外情的指控，但他否认了这些指控。

总的来说，约有80%的白人福音派选民在2024年大选中投票支持特朗普。该群体约占美国总人口的13%。

除了南卡罗来纳州等州之外，中西部爱荷华州和堪萨斯州以及南部德克萨斯州的福音派信徒，对于共和党能否继续掌控美国参议院至关重要。

基督教信仰领袖们正在几场重要的竞选中挑战共和党人，其中包括堪萨斯州的联合卫理公会牧师亚当·汉密尔顿和德克萨斯州的长老会神学生詹姆斯·塔拉里科。

汉密尔顿和塔拉里科都属于主流新教教派，而不是福音派教派。

白人福音派的投票趋势与其他福音派群体截然不同。例如，作为美国民权运动先锋的黑人新教福音派，一直是民主党的重要投票群体。

不过，与其他人口群体相比，福音派基督徒对特朗普的支持依然强劲。

目前尚不清楚人们对特朗普态度的转变是否会影响中期选举中保守派的投票率，而美国总统并未出现在中期选举的选票上。

路透社新闻社指出，在其追踪的群体中，白人福音派教徒是唯一在中期选举最后阶段对特朗普支持率超过 60% 的群体。

该群体支持率的下降幅度小于特朗普整体支持率的下降幅度，下降了 14 个百分点，而美国整体支持率下降了 16 个百分点。