‘Worst on record’: Brutal summer heat wave killed more than 50,000 in Europe’s cities

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More than 50,000 people are estimated to have died across Europe’s cities during the brutal heat waves that roiled the continent this summer — making this year’s heat the region’s deadliest on record, according to a new analysis .

About two-thirds of the deaths, more than 32,600, are directly attributed to climate change, driven by fossil fuel pollution, according to the findings, published in two peer-reviewed papers in the journal Nature Health.

“I think we can be quite confident in stating that the summer of 2026 is likely to have been the worst on record for heat-related mortality across much of Europe,” said Clair Barnes, an author on the reports and an extreme weather and climate change researcher at Imperial College London.

This stark death toll is revealed just weeks before international leaders gather in Turkey for the annual UN climate talks, and days after a UN report warned the world’s chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels has now vanished .

“We’re well off-track to limit the worst consequences of climate change, and governments need to realize that without faster action and coordination, things will only get worse,” Barnes said.

Europe is the fastest-warming continent and extreme heat, the deadliest form of extreme weather, is already becoming unbearable. Unprecedented high temperatures scorched the continent from late May until the end of August this year.

It was western Europe’s hottest summer on record , with temperatures about 2.9 degrees Celsius (5.2 Fahrenheit) above the 1991-2020 average. Individual days, however, saw much larger anomalies, with temperatures more than 12 degrees Celsius (21.6 Fahrenheit) higher than usual in some countries.

Guglielmo Mangiapane/Reuters

To calculate the death toll, scientists compared the temperatures in 854 cities across 30 European countries this summer with those that would have been expected in a world without climate change.

They then used peer-reviewed research on the relationship between high temperatures and daily deaths to model the likely number of heat-related deaths between the start of June and the end of August. It’s a method that has been found to produce death toll estimates broadly in line with those later produced by national health authorities, the scientists said.

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They estimated a total of 50,391 heat-related deaths across the cities, which make up about 40% of the population of the countries studied. The death toll is the highest for 26 years and substantially higher than that of previous major European heat waves in 2022 and 2003, the researchers found.

Southern and western Europe were worst affected , but typically cooler northern regions, including the UK , also experienced thousands of deaths.

The highest death rates were among people 85 or older, but heat can affect anyone, and more than 800 people between the ages of 20 and 44 died from heat-related reasons, according to the findings.

This summer is “likely to have been the most dangerously hot summer that Europe has experienced to date,” the report concludes.

The scientists also found the role of climate change in heat deaths is becoming more pronounced. Earlier this century, fossil fuel pollution was responsible for about 40% of heat deaths compared to around two-thirds today.

Raquel Nunes, an associate professor in health and environment at the University of Warwick, who was not involved in the research, said the findings contribute to “growing evidence of how deadly extreme heat can be, despite being described as a ‘silent killer’ due to its impacts not always being immediately visible.”

One of the most concerning aspects was that the death toll was also high among younger people, with thousands under 65 estimated to have died, Nunes added.

“Until we kick the fossil fuel habit, we will continue to see increasingly hot and dangerous summers,” Barnes said. And that means even deadlier summers on the horizon.

“These numbers are a stark reminder that our hotter, more extreme summers are having an increasingly severe impact on public health,” she added. “Behind these statistics are real people whose lives were lost and real families who grieve for them.”

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据最新分析显示，今年夏天席卷欧洲大陆的残酷热浪估计已导致欧洲各城市超过 5 万人死亡，使今年的热浪成为该地区有记录以来最致命的热浪。

根据发表在《自然健康》杂志上的两篇同行评审论文中的研究结果，约三分之二的死亡（超过 32600 例）直接归因于气候变化，而气候变化是由化石燃料污染造成的。

“我认为我们可以相当有把握地说，2026 年夏季很可能是欧洲大部分地区有记录以来与高温相关的死亡率最高的一年，”报告作者之一、伦敦帝国理工学院极端天气和气候变化研究员克莱尔·巴恩斯说。

就在国际领导人齐聚土耳其参加一年一度的联合国气候谈判前几周，以及联合国一份报告警告称，世界将全球变暖限制在比工业化前水平高出 1.5 摄氏度的机会已经消失几天后，这一骇人的死亡人数被公布。

巴恩斯说：“我们远远偏离了限制气候变化最严重后果的轨道，各国政府需要意识到，如果不采取更快的行动和协调，情况只会变得更糟。”

欧洲是全球变暖速度最快的洲，极端高温——最致命的极端天气形式——已经变得难以忍受。今年5月下旬至8月底，前所未有的高温席卷了整个欧洲大陆。

这是西欧有记录以来最热的夏季，气温比1991-2020年的平均气温高出约2.9摄氏度（5.2华氏度）。然而，个别日期的气温异常值更大，一些国家的气温比往年同期高出12摄氏度（21.6华氏度）以上。

古列尔莫·曼贾帕内/路透社

为了计算死亡人数，科学家们将今年夏天欧洲 30 个国家 854 个城市的气温与没有气​​候变化的世界预期的气温进行了比较。

他们随后利用同行评审的关于高温与每日死亡人数关系的研究，建立了模型来预测6月初至8月底期间可能出现的与高温相关的死亡人数。科学家们表示，这种方法得出的死亡人数估算结果与各国卫生部门后来公布的数据基本一致。

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研究人员估计，这些城市共有50391人死于与高温相关的疾病，这些城市的人口约占所研究国家总人口的40%。他们发现，这是26年来最高的死亡人数，远高于2022年和2003年欧洲此前几次重大热浪造成的死亡人数。

南欧和西欧受影响最为严重，但通常气候较为凉爽的北部地区，包括英国，也出现了数千人死亡的情况。

调查结果显示，死亡率最高的是 85 岁及以上的人群，但高温会影响任何人，20 至 44 岁之间的 800 多人死于与高温相关的疾病。

报告总结道，今年夏天“很可能是欧洲迄今为止经历的最危险、最炎热的夏天”。

科学家们还发现，气候变化在高温死亡事件中的作用日益显著。本世纪初，化石燃料污染造成的高温死亡约占40%，而如今这一比例约为三分之二。

华威大学健康与环境系副教授拉奎尔·努内斯（Raquel Nunes）并未参与这项研究，她表示，研究结果进一步证实了“极端高温的致命性，尽管它的影响并非总是立即显现，因此被称为‘无声杀手’”。

努内斯补充说，最令人担忧的一点是，年轻人的死亡人数也很高，估计有数千名 65 岁以下的人死亡。

巴恩斯说：“如果我们不摆脱对化石燃料的依赖，我们将继续面临越来越炎热和危险的夏季。” 这意味着未来可能会出现更加致命的夏季。

她补充说：“这些数字鲜明地提醒我们，越来越热、越来越极端的夏季正在对公众健康造成日益严重的负面影响。这些统计数据背后是一个个失去生命的真实个体，以及为他们悲痛欲绝的家庭。”