Singapore core inflation dips to 2% in September from 2-year high in August

Singapore's core inflation eased to 2 per cent year-on-year in September, down from 2.2 per cent in August , data from the Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) showed.

This was because of lower inflation for services, and retail and other goods, MTI and MAS said in a joint media release on Friday (Oct 23).

On a month-on-month basis, core prices — which excludes accommodation and private transport due to their volatility and tendency to be influenced by supply-side administrative policies — rose by 0.1 per cent in September.

Overall inflation, listed as "consumer price index-all items" fell by 0.1 per cent, to 2.2 per cent in September, due to lower core inflation and private transport inflation.

MTI and MAS said overall inflation, on a month-on-month basis, rose by 0.2 per cent in September, easing from the 0.6 per cent rise in August.

This excludes non-consumption expenditure such as purchase of houses, shares and other financial assets and income tax.

Breakdown by sectors

The data showed that electricity and gas inflation remained at the same pace in September as in the preceding two months — at 8.7 per cent.

This was largely due to the increase in the regulated electricity tariff in July 2026 .

Accommodation and food costs each rose by 0.1 per cent to 0.9 and 2.4 per cent respectively.

This was due to housing rents increasing at a faster pace, and higher inflation in both non-cooked food and food services.

Services inflation moderated from two per cent in August to 1.7 per cent in September due to a smaller increase in point-to-point transport service costs and a larger decline in telecommunication service prices.

Meanwhile, private transport inflation fell from 7.5 per cent in August to 7.1 per cent in September due to a more gradual increase in car prices.

Retail and other goods inflation also moderated from 1.8 per cent in August to 1.2 per cent in September as furniture prices declined and clothing prices rose at a slower pace.

The ministry and authority noted that energy commodity prices have risen anew and are projected to remain high in the near term.

This, in turn, could lead to global and regional food prices picking up as costlier inputs and adverse weather patterns affect food production.

However, they also expect imported inflation to ease in 2027 as the effects of temporary supply disruptions fade.

Enhanced government subsidies keep price pressures subdued

Meanwhile, domestic price pressures are expected to stay subdued, with unit labour costs in the services sector expected to remain contained amid continued productivity gains.

"Enhanced government subsidies, such as for healthcare and education, will also dampen services inflation," METI and MAS said.

They expect core inflation to remain slightly elevated in the immediate quarters ahead, before easing from mid-2027.

Core inflation is projected to average 1.5 to 2 per cent in 2026 and between 1.5 to 2.5 per cent next year, the ministry and authority added.

"The risks to inflation remain tilted to the upside," METI and MAS stated, explaining that a sharp and sustained surge in global energy or food prices could lift Singapore's import costs by more than projected.

Domestic inflation could also stay elevated if spillovers from artificial intelligence-related boom broaden and unit labour costs rise more rapidly.

But higher-than-expected global interest rates or a pullback in AI-related investment could also exert a drag on growth, and thus, inflation.

Energy prices could also decline faster if production and shipments from the Middle East recover more quickly than projected, they said.

新加坡能源、贸易和工业部 (METI) 和新加坡金融管理局 (MAS) 的数据显示，新加坡 9 月份核心通胀率同比降至 2%，低于 8 月份的 2.2%。

贸工部和金融管理局在周五（10月23日）联合发布的新闻稿中表示，这是因为服务、零售和其他商品的通胀率较低。

9 月份，核心价格环比上涨 0.1%（由于住宿和私人交通波动较大且易受供给侧行政政策影响，因此不包括这些价格）。

9月份，以“消费者价格指数（所有项目）”衡量的总体通胀率下降0.1个百分点，至2.2%，原因是核心通胀率和私人交通通胀率下降。

贸工部和金管局表示，9月份整体通胀率环比上涨0.2%，低于8月份0.6%的涨幅。

这不包括非消费性支出，例如购买房屋、股票和其他金融资产以及所得税。

按行业细分

数据显示，9 月份电力和天然气价格的通胀率与前两个月持平，为 8.7%。

这主要是由于 2026 年 7 月电力管制价格上涨所致。

住宿和食品成本分别上涨了0.1%，达到0.9%和2.4%。

这是由于住房租金上涨速度加快，以及生鲜食品和餐饮服务价格上涨幅度增大所致。

由于点对点运输服务成本涨幅收窄和电信服务价格降幅增大，服务业通胀率从 8 月份的 2% 缓和至 9 月份的 1.7%。

与此同时，由于汽车价格上涨速度放缓，私人交通通胀率从 8 月份的 7.5% 降至 9 月份的 7.1%。

由于家具价格下降，服装价格上涨速度放缓，零售和其他商品通胀率也从 8 月份的 1.8% 降至 9 月份的 1.2%。

该部委和有关部门指出，能源商品价格再次上涨，预计短期内将保持高位。

反过来，这可能导致全球和区域食品价格上涨，因为投入成本增加和不利天气模式影响粮食生产。

不过，他们也预计，随着暂时性供应中断的影响逐渐消退，进口通胀将在 2027 年有所缓解。

政府补贴力度加大，抑制了价格压力。

与此同时，国内价格压力预计将保持温和，服务业单位劳动力成本预计将在生产率持续提高的背景下得到控制。

经济产业省和金融管理局表示：“加大政府补贴力度，例如在医疗保健和教育方面，也将抑制服务业通胀。”

他们预计，在接下来的几个季度里，核心通胀率将保持略高水平，然后从 2027 年年中开始回落。

该部委和相关机构补充说，预计2026年核心通胀率平均为1.5%至2%，明年为1.5%至2.5%。

“通胀风险仍然偏向上行，”经济产业省和新加坡金融管理局表示，并解释说，全球能源或食品价格的急剧和持续上涨可能会使新加坡的进口成本上升幅度超过预期。

如果人工智能相关繁荣带来的溢出效应扩大，单位劳动力成本上涨速度加快，国内通胀也可能持续高企。

但高于预期的全球利率或人工智能相关投资的回落也可能对经济增长造成拖累，从而导致通货膨胀。

他们表示，如果中东地区的能源生产和运输恢复速度快于预期，能源价格的下降速度也可能更快。