Trump-Kim summit unlikely in near future amid N. Korean demands: US experts

U.S. experts said in Washington that the prospects for a near-term summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un remain slim because Pyongyang wants a change in U.S. policy, including its approach to denuclearization. Jenny Town put the chance of a meeting below 50 percent, while Ankit Panda estimated the chance of a summit alongside next month’s APEC summit in China at below 10 percent. Panda said Pyongyang was seeking a clear public signal of a policy shift, but suggested Trump’s next State of the Union address could offer an opportunity. Trump and Kim met three times during Trump’s first term.

Jenny Town is a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, and Ankit Panda is a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Town said North Korea rejects any denuclearization agenda and framed the question as whether the United States is willing to change its North Korea policy.

Panda said Trump could be distracted after the midterm elections, which he described as the only thing on the president’s mind.

Trump and Kim’s meetings took place in Singapore in June 2018, Hanoi in February 2019, and Panmunjom at the inter-Korean border in June 2019.

Published Oct 23, 2026 7:14 am KST

U.S. President Donald Trump, right, shakes hands with North Korea leader Kim Jong-un at the Capella resort on Sentosa Island in Singapore on June 12, 2018. AP-Yonhap

WASHINGTON — The prospects of a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in the near future remain slim, U.S. experts said, citing Pyongyang's demands for a shift in Washington's policy toward the North, including its approach to denuclearization.

Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, and Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, offered their assessments during a podcast discussion hosted by Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, published Thursday.

Town said the North has made clear that they reject the notion of any kind of denuclearization agenda.

"The question isn't, 'Will North Korea come to the table?' The question is, 'Is the U.S. willing to do those things (change its North Korean policy)?'" she said, referring to North Korea's demands for changes in what it considers Washington's hostile policy.

"I think the prospects of meeting, you know, I think are fairly low," she added, putting the likelihood of a meeting at less than 50 percent.

Panda offered a more pessimistic assessment of the possibility of a summit on the sidelines of next month's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in China, putting the chances at below 10 percent.

"I think it's just getting too late," he said, adding, "I think the president's going to be distracted after the midterms, which seems to be the only thing on his mind," while suggesting that Pyongyang was seeking a clear public signal from Trump indicating a change in U.S. policy.

However, Panda said there was still time for a summit before Trump leaves office, suggesting that the president's next State of the Union address could provide an opportunity to publicly outline a new approach toward the North.

Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in engaging with Kim again, citing their "good" personal relationship, fueling speculation about a possible meeting during the president's planned visit to China next month.

The two leaders had three in-person meetings during Trump's first term: the first in Singapore in June 2018, the second in Hanoi in February 2019 and the third at the inter-Korean border village of Panmunjom.

美国专家在华盛顿表示，美国总统特朗普与朝鲜领导人金正恩近期举行峰会的可能性仍然渺茫，因为平壤希望美国改变政策，包括其在无核化问题上的立场。珍妮·汤恩认为会晤的可能性低于50%，而安基特·潘达则估计，在下个月于中国举行的亚太经合组织峰会期间举行峰会的可能性低于10%。潘达表示，平壤正在寻求一个明确的公开信号，表明其政策正在转变，但他认为特朗普的下一份国情咨文可能是一个契机。在特朗普的第一任期内，他与金正恩会晤过三次。

珍妮·汤恩是史汀生中心的资深研究员，安基特·潘达是卡内基国际和平基金会的核政策专家。

Town表示，朝鲜拒绝任何无核化议程，并将问题表述为美国是否愿意改变其对朝政策。

Panda表示，中期选举后特朗普可能会分心，而中期选举是总统唯一关心的事情。

特朗普和金正恩分别于 2018 年 6 月在新加坡、2019 年 2 月在河内以及 2019 年 6 月在朝韩边境板门店举行了会晤。

发布于2026年10月23日 上午7:14（韩国标准时间）

2018年6月12日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（右）在新加坡圣淘沙岛嘉佩乐度假酒店与朝鲜领导人金正恩握手。（美联社-韩联社）

华盛顿——美国专家表示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与朝鲜领导人金正恩近期举行峰会的可能性仍然渺茫，理由是平壤要求华盛顿改变对朝政策，包括其在无核化问题上的立场。

史汀生中心高级研究员珍妮·汤恩和卡内基国际和平基金会核政策专家安基特·潘达在战略与国际研究中心韩国事务主席维克多·查主持的播客讨论中发表了他们的评估，该讨论于周四发布。

Town表示，北方方面已明确表示，他们拒绝任何形式的无核化议程。

“问题不是‘朝鲜是否会坐到谈判桌前？’而是‘美国是否愿意做这些事（改变其对朝政策）？’”她说道，指的是朝鲜要求改变其认为华盛顿的敌对政策。

“我认为见面的可能性相当低，”她补充道，认为见面的可能性不到 50%。

Panda对下个月在中国举行的亚太经济合作组织（APEC）峰会期间举行峰会的可能性持更为悲观的态度，认为可能性低于10%。

“我认为现在太晚了，”他说道，“我认为总统在中期选举后会分心，而中期选举似乎是他唯一在想的事情，”同时暗示平壤正在寻求特朗普发出明确的公开信号，表明美国政策的改变。

不过，潘达表示，在特朗普卸任之前仍有时间举行峰会，暗示总统的下一次国情咨文可能会提供一个机会，公开阐述对朝鲜的新方针。

特朗普多次表示有兴趣再次与金正恩接触，并称两人关系“良好”，这引发了人们对特朗普下个月访华期间可能与金正恩会面的猜测。

在特朗普的第一任期内，两位领导人举行了三次面对面会晤：第一次是 2018 年 6 月在新加坡，第二次是 2019 年 2 月在河内，第三次是在朝韩边境的板门店。