Ultra-Orthodox conscription debate ignites Israel’s election battleground

Israel’s election heats up over the ultra-Orthodox conscription debate, reflecting deep societal and political divides.

Ultra-Orthodox Jewish men block a highway during a protest against army recruitment in Bnei Brak, Israel [File: Leo Correa/AP Photo]

From the fallout of multi-fronted wars and demands for accountability over security failures to mounting concerns over the cost of living, Israelis are grappling with a series of crises ahead of the October 27 election .

Yet one contentious issue has come to dominate headlines during the campaign: whether Israel’s ultra-Orthodox Jewish minority should serve in the military.

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An estimated 80,000 ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, men aged between 18 and 24 are currently avoiding military service, a figure whose significance grows with every report of staff shortages in the Israeli army.

For their political supporters in the Knesset’s Haredi Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) parties, they are helping preserve the essential character of Israel through Torah study and prayer.

But for their detractors, they are draft dodgers refusing to undertake their share in the multiple wars Israel has embarked upon in the wake of the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023.

Critics include the self-styled Zionist opposition bloc that is locked in a tight race with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ‘s Likud Party and the far-right coalition it leads.

In May, as Haredi anger over the jailing of draft evaders spilled into street protests following a 2024 Supreme Court ruling that the military must begin drafting ultra-Orthodox men, the issue proved toxic enough to threaten Netanyahu’s government.

His ruling coalition has relied on the support of the Haredi parties in return for softening measures aimed at forcing their supporters to serve in the army. But after Netanyahu told the parties that he lacked the votes to pass an exemption bill, they pushed to dissolve the Knesset and effectively weakened the government.

Police use mounted units against ultra-Orthodox Jews protesting military conscription in April, a month before the parties representing them moved to bring down Israel’s ruling coalition [Abir Sultan/EPA]

On Tuesday, Netanyahu said he opposed the arrest of 40 Haredim – plural for Haredi – who were taken in for evading the draft after returning to Israel from the United States, despite a law this year meant to temporarily halt such arrests.

“We must preserve the world of Torah because it preserved us,” Netanyahu told the Haredi Kol Barama radio station. “These arrests are a deliberate attempt to harm the process of drafting Haredim without coercion.”

However, how well Netanyahu’s comments will land with the rest of the population is unclear, with the issue seen as offering an opportunity for those seeking to oust him as well as opening up divisions within his own base.

A September poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found an overwhelming 72 percent wanted to see the Haredim drafted alongside other Israelis eligible for military service.

In early October, a group of Haredim clashed with Israeli forces seeking to arrest a draft dodger in Modi’in, drawing condemnation from Netanyahu’s opponents. Former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar (“straight” or “honest”) party currently holds a narrow lead over Netanyahu’s Likud, described the incident as reflecting “the same dangerous world view that seeks to make draft evasion the norm and portray those who fulfil their duty to the state as suckers”.

He added: “That is what the upcoming election is about: Netanyahu’s draft-dodging government, or a government of conscription led by me.”

Ultra-Orthodox Jewish men gather on and below the Chords Bridge during the ‘Million Man’ protest against Israeli military conscription in Jerusalem, October 30, 2025 [Ammar Awad/Reuters]

Critics of the Haredim’s refusal to serve have even found voice within Netanyahu’s party, with Likud lawmakers arguing the issue of ultra-Orthodox non-conscription could pose a threat to the future of the State of Israel.

“It is a paradox,” said Daniel Bar-Tal, a professor of psychology at Tel Aviv University.

“On the one hand, the issue of equal service unites all the secular and Zionist religious public,” he said. “On the other side, the ultra-Orthodox are rightist … This does not go together, so [Netanyahu] has a dilemma.”

Despite popular anger over the refusal to serve, and the potential consequences for their allies in the Knesset who are striving to protect that exemption, Haredi intransigence shows no sign of easing.

The two Haredi parties – Shas and UTJ – have ruled out joining any coalition that does not pass laws exempting members of their community from military service, even if it makes forming any coalition sympathetic to the ultra-Orthodox impossible.

“This is a big deal,” said Israeli pollster Mitchell Barak. “The opposition parties are trying to pitch the election as the draft dodgers versus those who protect and serve – and that is the decisive point of the election.”

Next week’s polls are the first since Israel’s genocidal war against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip began in October 2023, killing nearly 74,400 people and leaving most of the besieged territory in ruins, as well as the multiple conflicts across the region that followed it.

The military campaigns have placed a big burden on the state’s finances, with the high cost of living being a major source of public discontent ahead of the polls. Higher taxes have added to the economic pressure, with surveys showing that families of reservists deployed to Israel’s war zones face increased emotional and psychological strain, alongside stagnant household incomes.

According to an August survey, 42 percent of Israelis said their finances had worsened since the war on Gaza began three years ago, with the families of reservists hit hardest.

That squeeze comes as the Haredi population keeps expanding, with 1.26 million, or 12.5 percent of Israelis identified as Haredi. Projections suggest that by 2065, somewhere between 20 percent and a third of the population will be Haredi, with a large portion refusing to either work or serve in the army in place of Torah study.

“The great burden of having to serve became much more pronounced – and at the same time the Haredi sector keeps growing,” said Shmuel Rosner, a senior fellow at The Jewish People Policy Institute, “which means that a large cohort of potential soldiers does not ease the burden on others.”

He added: “The blunt refusal of Haredi leaders to even consider a change in times of such dangers demonstrated to many Israelis that this community is one that depends on Israel financially and otherwise contributes little.”

以色列大选因极端正统派的征兵辩论而升温，反映出社会和政治的深刻分歧。

在以色列布内布拉克，极端正统派犹太男子封锁高速公路，抗议军队征兵。[图片：Leo Correa/AP Photo]

从多线战争的后果和对安全失误的问责要求，到对生活成本日益增长的担忧，以色列人在 10 月 27 日大选前正努力应对一系列危机。

然而，在竞选期间，一个有争议的问题占据了各大媒体的头条：以色列的极端正统犹太少数群体是否应该服兵役。

名单 1/4：寻求取代内塔尼亚胡的以色列政治家

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列表 4（共 4 项）：以色列 2026 年大选的运作方式

据估计，目前有 8 万名年龄在 18 至 24 岁之间的极端正统派（哈雷迪）男子正在逃避兵役，随着以色列军队人员短缺的报道越来越多，这个数字的重要性也日益凸显。

对于以色列议会中哈雷迪沙斯党和联合托拉犹太教党（UTJ）的政治支持者来说，他们通过托拉学习和祈祷来帮助维护以色列的本质特征。

但批评者认为，他们是逃避兵役的人，拒绝在以色列于 2023 年 10 月 7 日哈马斯领导的袭击后发动的多场战争中承担自己的责任。

批评者包括自称犹太复国主义反对派的联盟，该联盟与总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡的利库德集团及其领导的极右翼联盟展开了激烈的竞争。

5 月，最高法院裁定军队必须从 2024 年开始征召极端正统派男子，随后哈雷迪人因逃避兵役者被监禁而愤怒，并走上街头抗议，这一问题变得极具争议性，甚至威胁到了内塔尼亚胡政府。

他的执政联盟一直以来都依靠哈雷迪政党的支持，以此换取对强制其支持者服兵役措施的缓和。但内塔尼亚胡告诉这些政党，他没有足够的票数通过一项豁免法案后，他们便推动解散了议会，从而有效地削弱了政府。

4 月，以色列警方动用骑警镇压抗议征兵的极端正统派犹太人，一个月后，代表他们的政党推翻了以色列的执政联盟。[Abir Sultan/EPA]

周二，内塔尼亚胡表示，他反对逮捕 40 名哈雷迪教徒（哈雷迪教徒的复数形式），这些人从美国返回以色列后因逃避兵役而被捕，尽管今年有一项法律旨在暂时停止此类逮捕。

内塔尼亚胡在接受哈雷迪派电台Kol Barama采访时表示：“我们必须保护托拉的世界，因为它保护了我们。这些逮捕行动是蓄意破坏哈雷迪派在非胁迫条件下进行立法程序的企图。”

然而，内塔尼亚胡的言论能否得到其他民众的认可尚不清楚，因为这个问题既被视为那些试图推翻他的人的机会，也被视为在他自己的支持者群体内部造成分裂。

以色列民主研究所 9 月份的一项民意调查发现，高达 72% 的人希望看到哈雷迪教徒与其他符合兵役条件的以色列人一起被征召入伍。

10月初，一群哈雷迪犹太教徒在莫迪因与试图逮捕一名逃避兵役者的以色列军队发生冲突，此举招致内塔尼亚胡反对者的谴责。前总参谋长加迪·艾森科特领导的亚沙尔党（意为“正直”或“诚实”）目前以微弱优势领先于内塔尼亚胡的利库德集团，他将此次事件描述为“一种危险的世界观，这种世界观试图将逃避兵役视为常态，并将那些履行国家义务的人描绘成傻瓜”。

他补充道：“即将到来的选举就是关于这个的：内塔尼亚胡的逃避兵役的政府，还是我领导的实行征兵制的政府。”

2025年10月30日，在耶路撒冷举行的“百万男子”抗议活动中，极端正统犹太男子聚集在和弦桥上和桥下，反对以色列的兵役征召。[Ammar Awad/路透社]

哈雷迪派拒绝服兵役的批评声甚至在内塔尼亚胡的政党内部也找到了声音，利库德集团的议员们认为，极端正统派拒绝服兵役的问题可能会对以色列国的未来构成威胁。

“这是一个悖论，”特拉维夫大学心理学教授丹尼尔·巴尔-塔尔说道。

他说：“一方面，平等服务问题将世俗和犹太复国主义宗教团体团结在一起。另一方面，极端正统派是右翼分子……这两者无法兼顾，所以（内塔尼亚胡）陷入了困境。”

尽管民众对拒绝服役感到愤怒，并且担心这会给他们在以色列议会中努力维护这一豁免权的盟友带来后果，但哈雷迪派的顽固立场丝毫没有缓和的迹象。

两个极端正统派政党——沙斯党和联合托拉犹太教党——已经排除加入任何不通过法律豁免其社区成员服兵役的联盟，即使这使得组建任何同情​​极端正统派的联盟成为不可能。

“这可是件大事，”以色列民调专家米切尔·巴拉克说。“反对党试图将这次选举描绘成逃避兵役者与保卫国家和服务人民之间的较量——而这才是选举的决定性因素。”

下周的民意调查是自以色列于 2023 年 10 月开始对加沙地带的巴勒斯坦人发动种族灭绝战争以来的首次民意调查。这场战争造成近 74,400 人死亡，并将大部分被围困的领土夷为平地，随后该地区爆发了多起冲突。

军事行动给国家财政带来了沉重负担，高昂的生活成本成为大选前民众不满情绪的主要来源。税收增加加剧了经济压力，调查显示，被派往以色列战区的预备役军人家庭面临着日益加剧的情感和心理压力，同时家庭收入却停滞不前。

根据 8 月份的一项调查，42% 的以色列人表示，自三年前加沙战争开始以来，他们的财务状况恶化了，其中预备役军人的家庭受到的打击最大。

随着哈雷迪人口持续增长，这种困境愈演愈烈。目前，以色列有126万哈雷迪人，占以色列总人口的12.5%。据预测，到2065年，哈雷迪人将占以色列总人口的20%到三分之一，其中很大一部分人将拒绝工作或服兵役，转而研习《托拉》。

“服役的巨大负担变得更加明显——与此同时，哈雷迪教派也在不断壮大，”犹太人民政策研究所高级研究员什穆埃尔·罗斯纳说，“这意味着大量潜在士兵并不会减轻其他人的负担。”

他补充道：“在如此危险的时期，哈雷迪领导人断然拒绝考虑改变，这向许多以色列人表明，这个群体在经济上依赖以色列，而在其他方面贡献甚少。”