Airfares are way up compared to last year. Don’t expect it to change this holiday season

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Think you paid a lot to fly this summer? Don’t expect it to get any better this holiday season, or even next year.

The major US airlines reported that fares rose sharply during the July to September period, a result of higher fuel costs and steady demand. US airfares jumped about 25% this summer compared to 2025, according to data from the Consumer Price Index.

And airlines executives expect the trend of higher fares to continue for the foreseeable future.

“I certainly think pricing is going to stay,” United CEO Scott Kirby said on the company earnings call Wednesday, noting there’s a good chance that fares will rise even higher than expected next year.

That’s likely why passengers are booking holiday travel earlier this year than in the past, said Hayley Berg, lead economist at travel site Hopper. But that’s only helping push ticket prices even higher.

Thanksgiving is already averaging $389 a ticket, up 39% compared to this time last year, she told CNN. Tickets for the period around Christmas, which are typically about $50 more expensive than Thanksgiving, are $452 on average, up 22% from a year ago.

The airlines blame the increase on higher fuel costs. Fuel is one of the largest expenses for airlines, and jet fuel costs in the third quarter jumped more than 60% compared to a year ago thanks to the war in Iran. With no end to the conflict in sight, Kirby said United assumes fuel will stay pricey through all of 2027.

The four largest airlines – United, Delta, America and Southwest — spent $6.3 billion more on fuel in the third quarter than in 2025, or $69 million more a day. Higher fares and fees, including baggage, haven’t yet offset added fuel costs, but airlines expect they will.

Airlines have also cut their cheaper flights — midweek and Saturday flights, or those in the early morning and late at night. Those flights are popular with bargain hunters but can be money- losers for airlines amid a spike in fuel prices.

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But it is not just fuel and fewer affordable flights causing higher fares. Some of the fault lies in the customers’ willingness to pay those fares.

Passengers are still packing planes, and strong future bookings have convinced airlines they can keep fares high even if fuel costs drop.

Delta CEO Ed Bastian told investors earlier this month that while fuel costs were the impetus for hiking ticket prices and baggage fees, because travelers have accepted the higher fares, he believes they are “ sustainable ” even if fuel prices drop.

And airlines do whatever they can to bring in the greatest possible revenue, according to Zach Griff, author of airline newsletter “ From the Tray Table.”

“Even one day when the fuel prices drop back to what they used to be, you’re not going to see the airlines just drop their fares because of that,” he said.

Airlines also note that airfares are still relatively cheap when controlled for inflation — for example, when compared to 2019 before the pandemic killed demand for travel and slashed fares.

But while adjusting for inflation is popular with economists and airline executives, that means little to the average airline passenger.

“That’s not how most folks make that comparison. They feel poorer after they pay the credit card bill that includes a ticket from Delta Air Lines,” Griff said.

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你觉得今年夏天坐飞机很贵吗？别指望今年假期甚至明年情况会好转。

美国主要航空公司报告称，由于燃油成本上涨和需求稳定，7月至9月期间机票价格大幅上涨。根据消费者价格指数的数据，今年夏季美国机票价格较2025年上涨了约25%。

航空公司高管预计，票价上涨的趋势在可预见的未来仍将持续。

“我当然认为价格会保持不变，”美联航首席执行官斯科特·柯比周三在公司财报电话会议上表示，并指出明年票价很有可能比预期上涨得更高。

旅游网站Hopper的首席经济学家海莉·伯格表示，这很可能是今年乘客预订假期旅行的时间比往年更早的原因。但这只会进一步推高机票价格。

她告诉CNN，感恩节期间的平均票价已经达到389美元，比去年同期上涨了39%。圣诞节前后的票价通常比感恩节期间贵50美元左右，平均为452美元，比去年同期上涨了22%。

航空公司将价格上涨归咎于燃油成本上升。燃油是航空公司最大的支出之一，受伊朗战争的影响，第三季度航空燃油成本较去年同期上涨超过60%。柯比表示，由于冲突看不到结束的迹象，美联航预计燃油价格将在2027年全年保持高位。

四大航空公司——美联航、达美航空、美国航空和西南航空——第三季度的燃油支出比2025年同期增加了63亿美元，相当于每天增加6900万美元。尽管票价和行李费等费用上涨尚未完全抵消燃油成本的增加，但航空公司预计最终会弥补这一缺口。

航空公司也削减了价格较低的航班，例如周中和周六的航班，以及清晨和深夜的航班。这些航班虽然受精明旅客欢迎，但在燃油价格飙升的情况下，却可能让航空公司蒙受损失。

Tayfun Coskun/阿纳多卢/盖蒂图片社

但导致票价上涨的不仅仅是燃油价格和廉价航班减少。部分原因在于消费者支付这些票价的意愿。

乘客依然蜂拥而至，强劲的未来预订量让航空公司相信，即使燃油成本下降，他们也能维持高票价。

达美航空首席执行官埃德·巴斯蒂安本月早些时候告诉投资者，虽然燃油成本上涨是提高机票价格和行李费的直接原因，但由于旅客已经接受了更高的票价，他认为即使燃油价格下降，这些价格也是“可持续的”。

据航空公司通讯《餐桌上的乘客》的作者扎克·格里夫称，航空公司会竭尽所能地获取最大可能的收入。

“即使有一天燃油价格回落到以前的水平，你也不会看到航空公司因此而降低票价，”他说。

航空公司也指出，即使考虑到通货膨胀因素，机票价格仍然相对便宜——例如，与 2019 年疫情导致旅行需求下降、票价大幅降低之前相比。

虽然经济学家和航空公司高管都喜欢根据通货膨胀进行调整，但这对普通航空乘客来说意义不大。

格里夫说：“大多数人不会这样比较。他们付完包含达美航空机票的信用卡账单后，会感觉自己更穷了。”