Indonesian political rhetoric targeting neighbours aimed at distracting from domestic pressures

Sharp remarks by Indonesian political figures reflect domestic frustration, economic nationalism and political posturing, say analysts who also cautioned against reading too much into the criticism of Malaysia and Singapore.

A composite image of former Indonesia trade minister Muhammad Lutfi (left) and Coordinating Minister for Downstreaming and Energy Transition Bahlil Lahadalia. (Photo: Instagram/m.lutfi, Reuters/Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana)

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SINGAPORE: Recent remarks by current and former Indonesian political figures targeting neighbouring countries amid the transboundary haze appear to be driven by “domestic political frustrations” and posturing rather than signalling a shift in Indonesia’s approach towards its neighbours, analysts said.

They noted that Singapore and Malaysia have avoided directing criticism at Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, even as some political figures including a member of his Cabinet, make pointed comments amid tensions over transboundary haze blanketing parts of the region.

“While Indonesia may not yet be in the throes of a full-blown economic crisis, its people are already feeling the pinch. They are in need of answers to the hardships they face,” said Mr Made Supriatma, a visiting fellow with the Indonesia Studies Programme at Singapore-based think tank ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

Ramping up rhetoric by casting its neighbours as partially responsible “serves as an easy way for politicians to evade their own accountability”, he added.

CNA Games Guess Word Crack the word, one row at a time Buzzword Create words using the given letters Mini Sudoku Tiny puzzle, mighty brain teaser Mini Crossword Small grid, big challenge Word Search Spot as many words as you can Show More Show Less Ms Julia Lau, principal fellow and coordinator of the Indonesia Studies Programme at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said such posturing was not new, pointing to a “long-standing tactic” among Indonesian politicians to invoke nationalist sentiment during times of domestic difficulties. In recent days, there has been sharp rhetoric from prominent Indonesian figures over energy supplies and allegations of market manipulation. Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Downstreaming and Energy Transition Bahlil Lahadalia on Thursday (Oct 22) had raised the possibility of not renewing gas export contracts to neighbouring countries, though he did not name these countries. “Regarding our energy security, I will review contracts with other countries that are uncooperative and do not show mutual respect in their relations with us,” he said at an event, as quoted by CNBC Indonesia. “I will not hesitate to consider stopping exports to countries that do not respect Indonesia.” Separately, former trade minister Muhammad Lutfi had earlier alleged Singapore’s state investors Temasek and GIC of attempting to pressure global index provider MSCI into downgrading Indonesia’s stock market. Both Temasek and GIC have denied the allegations . Mr Lutfi served as trade minister under former president Joko Widodo until 2022. In 2023, he was questioned by Indonesian prosecutors over a corruption scandal involving the fraudulent issuance of crude palm oil export permits. The claims against Temasek and GIC are part of a series of videos that Mr Lutfi posted on social media in recent days taking aim at Singapore and Malaysia. In other videos, he addressed Singapore’s Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu, questioning whether she would take enforcement action against Singapore-listed firms.

Ms Julia Lau, principal fellow and coordinator of the Indonesia Studies Programme at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said such posturing was not new, pointing to a “long-standing tactic” among Indonesian politicians to invoke nationalist sentiment during times of domestic difficulties.

In recent days, there has been sharp rhetoric from prominent Indonesian figures over energy supplies and allegations of market manipulation.

Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Downstreaming and Energy Transition Bahlil Lahadalia on Thursday (Oct 22) had raised the possibility of not renewing gas export contracts to neighbouring countries, though he did not name these countries.

“Regarding our energy security, I will review contracts with other countries that are uncooperative and do not show mutual respect in their relations with us,” he said at an event, as quoted by CNBC Indonesia.

“I will not hesitate to consider stopping exports to countries that do not respect Indonesia.”

Separately, former trade minister Muhammad Lutfi had earlier alleged Singapore’s state investors Temasek and GIC of attempting to pressure global index provider MSCI into downgrading Indonesia’s stock market.

Both Temasek and GIC have denied the allegations .

Mr Lutfi served as trade minister under former president Joko Widodo until 2022. In 2023, he was questioned by Indonesian prosecutors over a corruption scandal involving the fraudulent issuance of crude palm oil export permits.

The claims against Temasek and GIC are part of a series of videos that Mr Lutfi posted on social media in recent days taking aim at Singapore and Malaysia. In other videos, he addressed Singapore’s Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu, questioning whether she would take enforcement action against Singapore-listed firms.

A “RALLYING CRY” FOR DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION

Analysts told CNA that the remarks by the Indonesian politicians should be viewed in the context of the country’s domestic political and economic pressures. They cautioned against reading too much into the criticism targeted at Singapore.

“The fiery and many times negative rhetoric is best read as aimed at a domestic audience for the countries involved, especially in Indonesia where resource nationalism is a popular cause,” said Mr Muhammad Garda Ramadhito, associate research fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

Mr Made from ISEAS added: “(The comments) are a form of political posturing by these politicians.”

“These seemingly anti-foreign statements are intended for domestic consumption, serving as a rallying cry,” he told CNA.

Associate Professor Chong Ja Ian of the National University of Singapore (NUS) political science department similarly pointed to broader frustrations within Indonesia, noting that Singapore was “not the only focus of ire among Indonesia’s politicians”.

“Malaysian politicians, companies, and other Indonesian political figures have also come in for criticism in Indonesia,” he noted, highlighting Mr Lutfi’s criticism of Malaysia’s Muar Member of Parliament Syed Saddiq Abdul Rahman.

Speaking in parliament during a debate on Malaysia’s 2027 Budget on Oct 13, Mr Syed Saddiq had called on his government to rally ASEAN countries to exert diplomatic pressure over the haze and to treat Indonesia as an “outcast”.

In a video posted on Instagram on Oct 20, Mr Lutfi said Mr Syed Saddiq was overlooking the role of Malaysian companies operating in Indonesia’s plantation sector.

“I’m disturbed when my entire country is ridiculed by politicians just to score cheap points in parliament,” said Mr Lutfi.

Mr Made said that such rhetoric is being driven by mounting economic pressures in Indonesia, where people are increasingly “feeling the pinch” of difficult economic conditions.

Directing criticism towards neighbouring countries could also be seen as a way for political figures to appeal to domestic audiences and divert attention from the country’s economic challenges, he added.

Analysts also said that the comments made by Mr Lutfi and Mr Bahlil did not reflect the broader position of Prabowo’s administration, saying that the government’s conduct has been “more conciliatory”.

Mr Ramadhito of RSIS pointed to Mr Prabowo’s call with Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in early October, during which the Indonesian president agreed to take action over the worsening haze.

“Prabowo himself has not endorsed these remarks (slamming Singapore and Malaysia)” he added.

Other establishment figures in Indonesia have also adopted a more collaborative tone towards Singapore and Malaysia.

Former Indonesian deputy foreign minister Dino Patti Djalal had described Singapore as a country with “goodwill, trust and a proven track record of cooperation with Indonesia”.

Without naming Mr Lufti, Mr Dino added that any claim that Singapore was conspiring against Indonesia’s equity market “doesn’t make sense”, pointing to the island nation’s substantial investments in Indonesia on top of its assistance during past crises such as natural disasters and COVID-19.

Mr Dino said: “Singapore has a vital interest in Indonesia’s political and economic stability because it is one of the countries most affected whenever political and economic turmoil occurs in our country.

“As a small country geographically squeezed between Indonesia and Malaysia, it is taboo and forbidden for Singapore's political elite to conspire to harm Indonesia. Just as it is taboo and forbidden for Indonesia to harm Singapore."

Mr Dino stated that Singapore’s policy towards Indonesia is always to maintain cooperation and mutual trust and “not to carry out malicious acts and sabotage”.

“We often speak of ‘a thousand friends are too few, one enemy is too many’. It would be highly contradictory if we treated our closest neighbour Singapore as an adversary and with deep suspicion,” he said.

Mr Dino’s comments reflected an interest among Indonesia’s foreign policy professionals to maintain stable bilateral ties, said Mr Ramadhito.

Ms Lau also said Singapore and other countries had offered assistance to Indonesia to tackle the haze, even as nationalist sentiment complicated efforts to address the crisis.

View this post on Instagram A post shared by Dino Patti Djalal (@dinopattidjalal)

A post shared by Dino Patti Djalal (@dinopattidjalal)

ECONOMIC REALITY VERSUS POLITICAL RHETORIC

Mr Made said the political rhetoric over ending gas exports to Singapore did not necessarily reflect the economic realities Indonesia would ultimately face.

He noted that under Mr Prabowo’s administration, Indonesia has prioritised gas for domestic use , particularly to support its downstream industrial development programme.

Downstreaming is the government’s attempt to prevent export of Indonesia’s raw materials and instead create higher-value products locally before exporting them.

Downstreaming presupposes industrial growth, said Mr Made, giving an example of how nickel downstreaming relies heavily on the presence of industries capable of absorbing nickel-derived products, alongside demand from abroad.

Mr Made questioned whether Indonesia’s downstreaming programme could generate sufficient demand for the gas amid a sluggish global economy and domestic economic strain.

“If downstreaming fails to materialise, domestic demand for gas will naturally decline. In that case, would terminating the contract with Singapore actually be advantageous?” he asked.

Mr Ramadhito of RSIS noted that Singapore's natural gas sources are well diversified, while Indonesia also faces economic risks in reducing exports.

“Rerouting exports domestically can widen the budget deficit, as gas sold at lower domestic prices reduces revenue for Pertamina, which is already under strain because subsidies keep energy prices artificially low during the Iran war,” he said.

Pertamina is Indonesia’s state-owned oil and natural gas conglomerate.

He highlighted that economic nationalism is an ideology the Prabowo administration has espoused, through sovereign investment fund Danantara and the re-routing of commodity exports to state-owned firms such as Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI).

DSI is a part of the administration’s plan to centralise exports of key commodities such as coal, palm oil and ferroalloy to tackle concerns about under-invoicing and transfer pricing.

“These remarks should be read in that context. The haze issue simply inflamed nationalist tendencies in a government that believes the economy is too exposed to foreign capital and interests,” said Mr Ramadhito.

COLLABORATION BETTER FOR ALL

In reality, Indonesia remains dependent on Singapore in some areas, particularly for fuel imports despite long-standing plans to change this, said Mr Made. There has only been a shift in rhetoric, designed purely for domestic political consumption, he said.

“I suspect that every politician – perhaps even Prabowo himself – knows that this rhetoric is more fallacious than it is truthful. Yet, they keep this ‘victim’ and ‘survival mode’ narrative alive because it offers the easiest and most efficient way to explain the hardships faced by the Indonesian people,” he said.

Such a narrative will not cease anytime soon, he added, noting that such finger-pointing is applied selectively and strategically.

“Nevertheless, Indonesian politicians are also fully aware that they must not overplay this narrative. They need to know their boundaries,” said Mr Made.

Mr Ramadhito noted that Singapore and Malaysia's leaders have so far signalled a preference for quiet diplomacy and direct, legal pressure on firms over public rebuke, in keeping with ASEAN's non-interference norms.

For instance, PM Anwar phoned Mr Prabowo personally and framed it as cooperation, while Singapore’s Coordinating Minister for National Security K Shanmugam thanked the Prabowo administration for its “unprecedented” efforts in tackling the haze issue.

“Both leaders face frustrated publics but have little leverage over Jakarta, and sovereignty-laden criticism risks an Indonesian nationalist backlash. It is very counterproductive to cause the Indonesian president or in fact any president to lose face,” he said.

Echoing Indonesian former deputy foreign minister Dino’s call to build trust and foster collaboration for mutual progress, Mr Made said all differences can be addressed through negotiation.

“Confrontational rhetoric is entirely unproductive. It is bad for all parties involved,” he said.

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分析人士表示，印尼政治人物的尖锐言论反映了国内的挫败感、经济民族主义和政治作秀，他们也告诫不要对针对马来西亚和新加坡的批评过度解读。

印度尼西亚前贸易部长 Muhammad Lutfi（左）和下游和能源转型协调部长 Bahlil Lahadalia 的合成图像。 （照片：Instagram/m.lutfi，路透社/Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana）

这段音频由人工智能工具生成。

新加坡：分析人士表示，印尼现任和前任政治人物最近在跨境雾霾中针对邻国发表的言论，似乎是出于“国内政治挫败感”和作秀，而不是表明印尼对邻国的态度发生了转变。

他们指出，尽管包括印尼总统普拉博沃·苏比安托内阁成员在内的一些政治人物在跨境雾霾笼罩该地区部分地区引发紧张局势之际发表了尖锐的评论，但新加坡和马来西亚一直避免直接批评印尼总统普拉博沃·苏比安托。

“虽然印尼可能尚未陷入全面经济危机，但其人民已经感受到了经济压力。他们需要找到解决困境的办法，”新加坡智库ISEAS-尤索夫伊萨克研究院印尼研究项目访问学者马德·苏普里亚特马先生说道。

他补充说，通过将邻国描绘成部分责任方来加大言辞攻势，“为政客们逃避自身责任提供了一种简便的方法”。

CNA游戏 猜词游戏 逐行破解单词 流行词游戏 用给定的字母组成单词 迷你数独 小谜题，脑力挑战 迷你填字游戏 小方格，大挑战 单词搜索 尽可能多地找出单词 显示更多 显示更少 尤索夫伊萨克东南亚研究院印尼研究项目首席研究员兼协调员刘茱莉亚女士表示，这种姿态并非新鲜事，她指出，这是印尼政客在面临国内困境时煽动民族主义情绪的“长期策略”。 近日，印尼知名人士就能源供应和市场操纵指控发表了激烈言论。印尼下游能源转型统筹部长巴赫利尔·拉哈达利亚周四（10月22日）提出，可能会不再与邻国续签天然气出口合同，但他并未点名这些国家。据CNBC印尼频道报道，他在一次活动上表示：“关于我们的能源安全，我将重新审查与那些不合作且在与印尼的关系中缺乏相互尊重的国家签订的合同。对于不尊重印尼的国家，我将毫不犹豫地考虑停止出口。” 此前，前贸易部长穆罕默德·卢特菲曾指控新加坡国有投资者淡马锡和新加坡政府投资公司（GIC）试图向全球指数提供商MSCI施压，要求其下调印尼股市评级。淡马锡和GIC均否认了这些指控。卢特菲先生在佐科·维多多总统任期内担任贸易部长，直至2022年。2023年，他因涉嫌伪造棕榈油出口许可证的腐败丑闻而受到印尼检察官的质询。卢特菲先生近日在社交媒体上发布了一系列视频，矛头直指新加坡和马来西亚，而针对淡马锡和GIC的指控只是其中的一部分。在其他视频中，他向新加坡永续发展及环境部长傅海燕提问，质疑她是否会对在新加坡上市的公司采取强制措施。

尤索夫伊萨克东南亚研究所印尼研究项目首席研究员兼协调员刘茱莉亚女士表示，这种姿态并非新鲜事，她指出，这是印尼政客在国内困难时期煽动民族主义情绪的“长期策略”。

近日，印尼一些知名人士就能源供应和市场操纵指控发表了措辞激烈的言论。

印尼下游能源转型协调部长巴赫利尔·拉哈达利亚周四（10月22日）提出，印尼有可能不再与邻国续签天然气出口合同，但他没有点名这些国家。

据 CNBC 印尼频道报道，他在一次活动上表示：“关于我们的能源安全，我将审查与那些不合作、在与我们关系中缺乏相互尊重的国家签订的合同。”

“对于不尊重印度尼西亚的国家，我将毫不犹豫地考虑停止出口。”

此外，前贸易部长穆罕默德·卢特菲此前曾指控新加坡国有投资者淡马锡和新加坡政府投资公司试图向全球指数提供商MSCI施压，要求其下调印尼股市评级。

淡马锡和新加坡政府投资公司均否认了这些指控。

卢特菲先生在佐科·维多多总统任内担任贸易部长，直至 2022 年。2023 年，他因涉嫌欺诈性发放原棕榈油出口许可证的腐败丑闻而受到印尼检察官的质询。

卢特菲先生近日在社交媒体上发布了一系列视频，矛头直指新加坡和马来西亚，其中就包括针对淡马锡和新加坡政府投资公司的指控。在其他视频中，他还质问新加坡永续发展及环境部长傅海燕，是否会对在新加坡上市的公司采取强制措施。

国内消费的“集结号”

分析人士告诉亚洲新闻台（CNA），应将印尼政界人士的言论放在该国国内政治和经济压力的大背景下看待。他们告诫不要过度解读针对新加坡的批评。

“这些激烈且往往带有负面色彩的言论最好被解读为针对相关国家的国内受众，尤其是在资源民族主义盛行的印度尼西亚，”拉惹勒南国际研究院 (RSIS) 副研究员穆罕默德·加尔达·拉马迪托先生说道。

来自ISEAS的Made先生补充道：“（这些言论）是这些政客的一种政治作秀。”

“这些看似反外言论实际上是针对国内民众的，起到鼓舞士气的作用，”他告诉中央社。

新加坡国立大学政治学系副教授张嘉彦也指出，印尼国内存在更广泛的不满情绪，并指出新加坡“并非印尼政界人士愤怒的唯一焦点”。

“马来西亚政客、公司和其他印尼政治人物也在印尼受到了批评，”他指出，并特别提到了卢特菲先生对马来西亚麻坡国会议员赛义德·萨迪克·阿卜杜勒·拉赫曼的批评。

10 月 13 日，在马来西亚 2027 年预算案的国会辩论中，赛义德·萨迪克先生呼吁他的政府团结东盟国家，就雾霾问题施加外交压力，并将印度尼西亚视为“弃儿”。

10 月 20 日，卢特菲先生在 Instagram 上发布的一段视频中表示，赛义德·萨迪克先生忽视了在印尼种植园领域运营的马来西亚公司的作用。

“当政客们为了在议会中捞取廉价的政治资本而嘲笑我的整个国家时，我感到非常不安，”卢特菲先生说。

马德先生表示，这种言论是由印尼日益增长的经济压力所驱动的，印尼人民越来越“感受到”艰难的经济形势带来的“压力”。

他还补充说，对邻国的批评也可以被视为政治人物讨好国内民众、转移人们对本国经济挑战的注意力的一种方式。

分析人士还表示，卢特菲先生和巴赫利尔先生的言论并不反映普拉博沃政府的总体立场，称政府的行为“更具和解性”。

RSIS 的 Ramadhito 先生指出，普拉博沃先生在 10 月初与马来西亚总理安瓦尔·易卜拉欣通了电话，期间印尼总统同意采取行动应对日益严重的雾霾问题。

“普拉博沃本人并未赞同这些言论（抨击新加坡和马来西亚）”。他补充道。

印尼其他一些知名人士也对新加坡和马来西亚采取了更加合作的态度。

印尼前副外长迪诺·帕蒂·贾拉尔曾形容新加坡是一个“对印尼充满善意、信任且有着良好合作记录”的国家。

迪诺先生没有指名道姓地提到卢夫蒂先生，但他补充说，任何关于新加坡密谋打压印尼股市的说法“都是没有道理的”，并指出新加坡除了在印尼过去遭遇自然灾害和新冠疫情等危机时提供援助外，还在印尼进行了大量投资。

迪诺先生说：“新加坡对印尼的政治和经济稳定有着至关重要的兴趣，因为每当我国发生政治和经济动荡时，新加坡都是受影响最大的国家之一。”

“新加坡地处印尼和马来西亚之间，是一个面积不大的国家，因此新加坡的政治精英密谋伤害印尼是禁忌，也是绝对禁止的。同样，印尼伤害新加坡也是禁忌。”

迪诺先生表示，新加坡对印尼的政策始终是保持合作与互信，“不会进行恶意行为和破坏”。

“我们常说‘朋友太多，敌人太少’。如果我们把最亲近的邻国新加坡视为对手​​，并对其抱有深深的怀疑，那就太自相矛盾了。”他说道。

拉马迪托先生表示，迪诺先生的评论反映了印尼外交政策专业人士希望维持稳定的双边关系。

刘女士还表示，新加坡和其他国家已向印尼提供援助以应对雾霾，但民族主义情绪使应对危机的努力变得复杂。

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经济现实与政治言辞

马德先生表示，围绕停止向新加坡出口天然气的政治言论并不一定反映印尼最​​终将面临的经济现实。

他指出，在普拉博沃先生的领导下，印尼已将天然气优先用于国内用途，特别是支持其下游工业发展计划。

下游化是政府试图阻止印尼原材料出口，而是在本地生产更高价值的产品后再出口的一种策略。

马德先生表示，下游产业的发展以工业增长为前提，并举例说明镍下游产业如何严重依赖于能够吸收镍衍生产品的产业以及来自国外的需求。

马德先生质疑，在全球经济低迷和国内经济紧张的情况下，印尼的下游天然气项目能否产生足够的天然气需求。

他问道：“如果下游业务未能实现，国内对天然气的需求自然会下降。在这种情况下，终止与新加坡的合同真的会有利吗？”

RSIS的拉马迪托先生指出，新加坡的天然气来源十分多元化，而印尼在减少出口方面也面临着经济风险。

他说：“将出口转向国内可能会扩大预算赤字，因为以较低的国内价格出售的天然气会减少印尼国家石油公司（Pertamina）的收入，而该公司在伊朗战争期间由于补贴人为压低能源价格，已经面临压力。”

Pertamina是印度尼西亚的国有石油和天然气集团。

他强调，经济民族主义是普拉博沃政府奉行的一种意识形态，通过主权投资基金 Danantara 以及将大宗商品出口重新导向 Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) 等国有企业来实现。

DSI是政府集中管理煤炭、棕榈油和铁合金等关键商品出口计划的一部分，旨在解决低报价格和转移定价问题。

拉马迪托先生说：“这些言论应该放在这个背景下理解。雾霾问题只会激起政府内部的民族主义倾向，因为该政府认为本国经济过于依赖外国资本和利益。”

合作对所有人都有利

马德先生表示，尽管印尼长期以来一直计划改变这种状况，但实际上，印尼在某些领域仍然依赖新加坡，尤其是在燃料进口方面。他说，这仅仅是措辞上的转变，纯粹是为了迎合国内政治舆论。

“我怀疑每个政治人物——或许甚至包括普拉博沃本人——都知道这种言论谬误远大于真相。然而，他们仍然坚持这种‘受害者’和‘生存模式’的叙事，因为它提供了解释印尼人民所面临困境的最简单、最有效的方式，”他说。

他补充说，这种论调不会很快停止，并指出这种互相指责是有选择和有策略的。

“然而，印尼政界人士也完全清楚，他们不应过度渲染这种说法。他们需要知道自己的底线，”马德先生说道。

拉马迪托先生指出，新加坡和马来西亚的领导人迄今为止都表示，他们更倾向于采取低调的外交手段，并通过直接的法律手段向企业施压，而不是公开谴责，这符合东盟的不干涉原则。

例如，安华总理亲自致电普拉博沃先生，并表示这是合作；新加坡国家安全统筹部长尚穆根感谢普拉博沃政府在解决雾霾问题上做出的“前所未有”的努力。

“两位领导人都面临着民众的不满，但对雅加达的影响力却很有限，而且带有主权色彩的批评可能会引发印尼民族主义者的强烈反弹。让印尼总统，或者任何一位总统丢面子，都是非常不利的，”他说。

马德先生响应印尼前副外长迪诺的呼吁，表示要建立信任、促进合作以实现共同进步，所有分歧都可以通过谈判解决。

他说：“对抗性的言辞完全没有益处，对所有相关方都不利。”

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