How reliant is Ukraine on US support – and could Kyiv carry on without it?

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It has been a bewildering period in US-Ukraine relations, after US President Donald Trump slammed his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky for failing to negotiate an end to the war and Kyiv accused Washington of withholding key military support .

Trump then sent his envoy to Norway and Russia to try to advance the peace process – but Washington walked away with only a plan to resume trilateral talks.

Meanwhile, deadly Russian attacks continue , as Ukraine raises concerns about cracks in support from the US.

The latest tensions are far from the first bout between Kyiv and Trump, who began his second term by halting aid for Ukraine’s war effort. Since then, Europe has picked up the tab and Kyiv has built up its own defense industry at a rapid pace.

So how much does Ukraine still rely on US support? And can it carry on fighting without it?

Experts say there are three broad levers of pressure the United States can apply to Kyiv – economic, military and political – as it seeks some sort of Ukrainian capitulation to end the war started by Russia.

The Trump administration halted new aid packages for Ukraine at the beginning of 2025.

Before then, the US had sent at least $131.5 billion in total aid to Ukraine, which still makes it the largest single donor since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, according to data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think tank that tracks wartime aid to Ukraine. Some of the weapons from American manufacturers purchased during the Biden administration are still flowing to Ukraine, but many of those contracts have been fulfilled.

European Union countries and institutions as a bloc now outpace the US in their total donations, sending at least $228.5 billion since 2022, Kiel Institute data shows.

Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden have given the largest amount of military aid among the EU states. The United Kingdom and Norway have also contributed a significant chunk of military aid from outside the bloc.

Many of the donations come in the form of NATO allies purchasing US-made weapons that they then transfer to Ukraine.

But those European weapons transfers still require Pentagon authorization, giving the Trump administration another source of leverage.

Zelensky addressed Ukraine’s critical shortage of US-made Patriot interceptors on Friday, saying, “The delivery of interceptors to protect us against Russian ballistic missiles is still delayed. We are waiting for interceptors that were already agreed on, but they are still not coming.”

Last week, Ukraine ran out of Patriot interceptors – one of the few defensive weapons capable of knocking down a ballistic missile – leaving it far more vulnerable to Russian attacks.

None of the ballistic missiles that slammed Kyiv overnight into Thursday were intercepted – an indicator that Patriot stocks are still empty or critically low. Zelensky told CNN hours after that attack that Ukraine primarily needs two things from its allies at this critical moment: “ Not to lift sanctions from Putin … (and) to give us better missiles.”

Given that those weapons orders are a boon for American defense companies, analysts say it’s unlikely that any slow-down or blocking of purchases would continue for a long time.

Although American financial support has collapsed, Ukraine still relies heavily on US intelligence and technology.

It has no replacement for unique American systems like the Patriot interceptors, the military-grade version of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet called Starshield and advanced missile-warning technology.

“That is something Europeans don’t have, and they don’t have it because we (the US) have told them for the last 30 years not to develop it … because they can rely on us,” said Max Bergmann, the Russia program director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

“We’re in a situation where America is proving to everyone in Europe that it simply can’t be relied upon,” Bergmann told CNN.

“This could be really devastating for Ukraine in the sense that it could cause tremendous economic damage, tremendous loss of civilian life, civilians leaving,” he said. “But I doubt it’s going to actually break Ukraine’s will to fight.”

Zelensky said earlier this week that on multiple occasions Ukraine had received no US intelligence warnings of ballistic strikes. That resulted in Russian missile attacks hitting without the usual air raid sirens warning residents to head to bunkers, and Ukrainian officials have said more civilians died as a result.

Evgeniy Maloletka/AP

The US State Department and Trump himself have denied limiting intelligence sharing.

By Tuesday night, Zelensky said that the intelligence sharing with the United States “now works” again.

Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials said on Friday however that Starshield was still being restricted, despite Trump claiming that Musk had restored Ukraine’s access to the service.

The restrictions, which disrupt any military ordnance moving at high speeds, have hindered Ukrainian interceptor drones in defending against Russian attacks and upended Ukrainian military operations in many areas of the front line, Ukrainian officials said.

“We are asking if it’s possible to give us Starshield with normal speed to defend ourselves,” Zelensky told CNN in an interview this week, noting that European allies pay for the satellite internet contract. “If not, okay. We will survive and we will stay strong.”

Trump and some of his top officials have denied making the call to throttle Ukraine’s use of the Starshield service, without offering any clear explanation for what had actually happened. Earlier this week, Trump said he was not involved.

The US president asked Musk in a phone call in recent days to restore Ukraine’s full access to the Starshield satellite system, a person familiar with the matter told CNN.

Musk has denied taking unilateral action, though, saying in a social media post that “any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS.”

In the short term, any further disruptions or restrictions to US-backed systems are likely to hit Ukraine incredibly hard, experts said. In the long-term, it’s likely that European allies will pump more money into developing their own systems to help Ukraine.

“I think the Ukrainians probably didn’t think that the United States would stoop this low, would betray it this much, because this isn’t really an act of charity that the United States is doing … This is a service that Ukraine is spending money on,” Bergmann said of Kyiv’s Starshield contract and Patriot interceptor purchases.

“What the administration is doing actually has far larger ramifications for the basic reliability of the US as a technology and defense supplier,” Bergmann added.

The falling-out between the US and Ukraine also has wider geopolitical ramifications, analysts said, and could end up being a gift to the Kremlin’s war effort.

It comes after a number of controversial moves by the Trump administration this month, including waiving new sanctions on Russia before they could kick in and striking a deal to allow Russia to export diesel . Meanwhile, the Kremlin has so far not budged on its maximalist demands to end the war.

Washington’s willingness to place unprecedented pressure on Kyiv “gives Russia a certain hope that if they continue fighting this war, eventually the European resolve will also fade away,” said Natia Seskuria, a senior research fellow on Russia and Eurasia at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK-based defense think tank.

John Lough, head of international partnerships at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, had a similar view.

“I think the Russians must feel quite pleased with themselves at the moment with the strain all this recent activity is putting on Europe, by getting Trump to pressurize Ukraine, break the sanctions regime and not follow through with the Lindsey Graham bill, ” he told CNN. “It’s just accentuating the fact that Europe and the United States are not aligned.”

Trump has directly tied the waiving of sanctions to the release of detained American Stephen Hubbard , despite stating earlier that the US gave Moscow “nothing in exchange” for his freedom.

US special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg, where he called him a “humanitarian.”

Experts said some of the tension – particularly on issues related to diesel, with Trump blaming Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries for soaring prices rather than the Iran war – may dissipate after the US midterms. But the problem of high gas prices and the unpopularity of the Iran war are here to stay for the remainder of Trump’s presidency, Lough argued.

Lough said that Ukraine’s efforts to continue attacks on Russian oil refineries have been like “a red rag to a bull” for Trump. “It makes Ukraine the easy target if you’re trying to deflect responsibility for what’s happened with Iran.”

CNN’s Becky Pinnington contributed to this report.

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在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普抨击乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基未能通过谈判结束战争，而基辅指责华盛顿扣留关键军事支持之后，美乌关系经历了一段令人困惑的时期。

随后，特朗普派遣特使前往挪威和俄罗斯，试图推进和平进程——但华盛顿最终只得到了一项恢复三边会谈的计划。

与此同时，俄罗斯的致命袭击仍在继续，乌克兰也对美国支持力度的减弱表示担忧。

最近的紧张局势远非基辅和特朗普之间的首次交锋。特朗普在其第二个任期伊始便停止了对乌克兰战争的援助。此后，欧洲承担了这笔费用，而基辅也迅速发展了自己的国防工业。

那么，乌克兰在多大程度上仍然依赖美国的支持？如果没有美国的支持，它还能继续战斗吗？

专家表示，美国可以对基辅施加三大压力——经济、军事和政治——以期迫使乌克兰做出某种让步，结束俄罗斯发动的战争。

特朗普政府于2025年初停止了对乌克兰的新援助计划。

在此之前，美国已向乌克兰提供了至少1315亿美元的援助，根据德国基尔世界经济研究所（一家追踪战时对乌克兰援助的智库）的数据，这仍然是自2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰以来最大的单一援助国。拜登政府时期从美国制造商购买的一些武器仍在流向乌克兰，但其中许多合同已经履行完毕。

基尔研究所的数据显示，欧盟国家和机构作为一个整体，其捐款总额现已超过美国，自 2022 年以来已至少捐赠了 2285 亿美元。

在欧盟成员国中，德国、丹麦、荷兰和瑞典提供的军事援助最多。英国和挪威也从欧盟以外提供了相当数量的军事援助。

许多捐赠是以北约盟国购买美国制造的武器，然后转交给乌克兰的形式进行的。

但这些欧洲武器转让仍需五角大楼授权，这给了特朗普政府另一个筹码。

泽连斯基周五就乌克兰严重缺乏美国制造的“爱国者”拦截导弹的问题发表讲话，他说：“用于保护我们免受俄罗斯弹道导弹袭击的拦截导弹的交付仍然延迟。我们仍在等待已经达成协议的拦截导弹，但它们仍然没有到货。”

上周，乌克兰的“爱国者”拦截导弹——少数几种能够击落弹道导弹的防御性武器之一——用完了，这使得乌克兰更容易受到俄罗斯的攻击。

周四凌晨袭击基辅的弹道导弹无一被拦截——这表明“爱国者”导弹的库存仍然告罄或极度短缺。泽连斯基在袭击发生数小时后告诉CNN，乌克兰在这个关键时刻最需要盟友做的两件事：“不要解除对普京的制裁……（以及）给我们更好的导弹。”

鉴于这些武器订单对美国国防公司来说是一大利好，分析人士表示，任何放缓或阻止采购的情况都不太可能持续很长时间。

尽管美国的财政支持已经崩溃，但乌克兰仍然严重依赖美国的情报和技术。

它无法取代美国独有的“爱国者”拦截器、埃隆·马斯克的“星链”卫星互联网的军用版“星盾”以及先进的导弹预警技术。

“这是欧洲人所不具备的，他们之所以不具备，是因为我们（美国）在过去30年里一直告诉他们不要发展这项技术……因为他们可以依靠我们，”华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心俄罗斯项目主任马克斯·伯格曼说道。

“我们现在的情况是，美国正在向欧洲所有人证明，它根本不可信赖，”伯格曼告诉 CNN。

他说：“这对乌克兰来说可能是毁灭性的，因为它可能造成巨大的经济损失、大量的平民伤亡，以及平民的流离失所。但我怀疑这是否真的会摧毁乌克兰的战斗意志。”

泽连斯基本周早些时候表示，乌克兰多次未收到美国情报部门关于弹道导弹袭击的预警。这导致俄罗斯导弹袭击发生时，没有像往常那样拉响空袭警报提醒居民躲进掩体，乌克兰官员称，因此造成更多平民死亡。

叶夫根尼·马洛列特卡/美联社

美国国务院和特朗普本人都否认限制情报共享。

周二晚间，泽连斯基表示，与美国的情报共享“现在又恢复正常了”。

泽连斯基和其他乌克兰官员周五表示，尽管特朗普声称马斯克已经恢复了乌克兰对该服务的访问权限，但 Starshield 仍然受到限制。

乌克兰官员表示，这些限制措施扰乱了任何高速移动的军用弹药，阻碍了乌克兰拦截无人机防御俄罗斯的攻击，并扰乱了乌克兰在许多前线地区的军事行动。

泽连斯基本周接受CNN采访时表示：“我们正在询问是否有可能以正常速度为我们提供‘星盾’服务，以便我们进行自卫。”他指出，这项卫星互联网合同的费用是由欧洲盟友支付的。“如果不行，也没关系。我们会挺过去，我们会保持强大。”

特朗普及其一些高级官员否认曾下令限制乌克兰使用“星盾”安全服务，但并未就实际发生的事情给出任何明确解释。本周早些时候，特朗普表示他并未参与此事。

据一位知情人士向 CNN 透露，美国总统近日在与马斯克的通话中要求恢复乌克兰对“星盾”卫星系统的全面使用权。

不过，马斯克否认采取单方面行动，他在社交媒体上发帖称，“任何对速度或使用的限制都由美国军方决定，最终由美国总统决定。”

专家表示，短期内，任何对美国支持的系统的进一步干扰或限制都可能对乌克兰造成极其沉重的打击。从长远来看，欧洲盟友可能会投入更多资金开发自己的系统，以帮助乌克兰。

“我认为乌克兰人可能没想到美国会堕落到这种地步，背叛到这种程度，因为这并非美国出于慈善目的……这是乌克兰花钱购买的服务，”伯格曼在谈到基辅的“星盾”合同和“爱国者”拦截导弹采购时说道。

伯格曼补充说：“政府的做法实际上对美国作为技术和国防供应商的基本可靠性有着更大的影响。”

分析人士表示，美国和乌克兰之间的决裂也具有更广泛的地缘政治影响，最终可能成为克里姆林宫战争努力的一份大礼。

此前，特朗普政府本月采取了一系列颇具争议的举措，包括在对俄新制裁生效前予以豁免，以及达成允许俄罗斯出口柴油的协议。与此同时，克里姆林宫迄今为止在其结束战争的最高要求上仍未做出任何让步。

英国皇家联合军种研究所（RUSI）俄罗斯和欧亚问题高级研究员纳蒂亚·塞斯库里亚表示，华盛顿愿意对基辅施加前所未有的压力，“这让俄罗斯抱有一种希望，如果他们继续打这场战争，最终欧洲的决心也会消失”。

新欧亚战略中心国际合作负责人约翰·洛夫也持类似观点。

“我认为，俄罗斯人现在一定对自己最近的一系列举动感到非常得意，这些举动给欧洲带来了巨大的压力，他们迫使特朗普向乌克兰施压，破坏制裁机制，并且没有落实林赛·格雷厄姆的法案，”他告诉CNN。“这更加凸显了欧洲和美国立场不一致的事实。”

尽管特朗普此前曾表示，美国没有向莫斯科提供任何补偿来换取他的自由，但他还是将取消制裁与释放被拘留的美国人斯蒂芬·哈伯德直接联系起来。

美国特使史蒂夫·威特科夫在圣彼得堡会见了俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京，并称他为“人道主义者”。

专家表示，部分紧张局势——尤其是在柴油价格问题上，特朗普将油价飙升归咎于乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼油厂而非伊朗战争——可能会在美国中期选举后有所缓解。但洛夫认为，高油价问题和伊朗战争不得人心的现状将在特朗普剩余的总统任期内持续存在。

洛夫表示，乌克兰持续袭击俄罗斯炼油厂的行为对特朗普来说就像“火上浇油”。“如果你想转移对伊朗局势的责任，乌克兰就成了唾手可得的靶子。”

CNN的贝基·平宁顿对本报道亦有贡献。