Canada won’t see Alberta seceding anytime soon. But what to do with the people who wanted to leave?

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In the end, it wasn’t even close. Alberta’s preliminary referendum results were a definitive rejection of the idea that the province would be better off as an independent country. By a 3-to-1 margin, the province chose to remain in Canada and said “no” to a second, binding vote on secession.

Nonetheless, separatist activist Jeffrey Rath was rather cheerful when he spoke to CNN the morning after the loss. “We don’t see this as a setback,” Rath said Tuesday. “For a fledgling political movement, it was a major accomplishment and a hell of a victory.”

About a fourth of voters – over 500,000 Albertans – wanted another vote, the first step on a pathway towards secession from Canada. What now for them?

Despite their loss, the over half a million people that voted for a binding plebiscite on independence are here to stay, said Dr. Jared Wesley, a political scientist at the University of Alberta. And it will be worth watching what they turn their efforts to next.

“Separatism may have been rejected in Alberta, but they’ll move onto something else,” said Wesley, who spoke throughout the campaign in favor of staying in Canada. “Alberta separatism is only one element of a much broader, far-right populist movement in Canada.”

Wesley pointed out that the independence referendum wasn’t the only question on the ballot earlier this week. There were also five separate non-binding referenda about immigration, including whether the provincial government ought to take “increased control” and whether Alberta should require proof of citizenship to vote. With the unofficial results out, all appear to have passed.

“Alberta separatists have far more in common with the MAGA movement than they do with secessionist movements across the globe,” Wesley said. “They may lose on one issue, but they don’t go away. They adapt. They find another issue, and they seem to have found one on immigration.”

The movement has been complicated by its ties to right-wing politics in the United States, with high profile voices like US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and SpaceX founder Elon Musk egging them on.

Cory Morgan, who founded the Alberta Independence Party in 2000, told CNN that he has learned from the referendum that most people in Alberta simply did not want to separate. “The movement just isn’t ready, to be blunt,” Morgan said.

Jennifer Gauthier/Reuters

But he also argues that calls for separatism were overshadowed by the trade war with the United States and US President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Canada. Numerous separatists – including Rath himself – made trips to Washington to meet with members of the Trump administration looking for support — a tactic that may have backfired back home.

“It led to mistrust,” Morgan said. “I think that factor really did hinder the movement’s growth this year.”

Rath dismissed this analysis, saying that his meetings with the Trump administration were “very useful” for shoring up US support in case independence was achieved, and that people who were nervous about his movement’s high-level interactions with the US were being needlessly sensitive.

“Do people have a lot of ‘Trump derangement syndrome’ in Canada? Yeah,” Rath said. “What can I say? It doesn’t take a lot to trigger them, and I’ll be frank – I’ve almost gone out of my way to trigger a lot of them.”

Alberta rejects secession referendum, chooses to remain part of Canada

Yet other separatist movements in Canada appear to have taken the hint. Quebec’s Parti Quebecois, which took control of the provincial legislature with just under a third of the vote, has pledged not to hold an independence referendum while Trump is president.

“Fear of United States annexation placed a huge cap on people’s willingness to take a chance at dividing Canada,” said Wesley, the political scientist. “The relationship with the United States was front and center in people’s minds as they were voting.”

Though Morgan thinks the independence movement isn’t ready to take another big swing, he thinks that the 500,000 votes that it earned on Monday are a good start.

“This was a solid base that said they’re ready to look at that option,” Morgan said. “And it’s not going away.”

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最终，结果毫无悬念。阿尔伯塔省的初步公投结果明确否定了该省独立后会更好的想法。该省以3比1的压倒性优势选择留在加拿大，并对第二次具有约束力的脱离加拿大公投投了反对票。

尽管如此，分离主义活动家杰弗里·拉斯在败选后的第二天早上接受CNN采访时却显得相当乐观。“我们并不认为这是一次挫折，”拉斯周二表示，“对于一个羽翼未丰的政治运动来说，这是一项重大成就，也是一场了不起的胜利。”

大约四分之一的选民——超过50万阿尔伯塔省居民——希望再次投票，这是阿尔伯塔省脱离加拿大的第一步。他们接下来该怎么办？

阿尔伯塔大学政治学家贾里德·韦斯利博士表示，尽管失败了，但超过50万投票支持就独立问题举行具有约束力的全民公投的人们不会就此罢休。他们接下来会把精力投入到什么事情上，值得我们拭目以待。

“阿尔伯塔省的分离主义运动或许遭到了拒绝，但他们会转向其他方向，”韦斯利说道。他在整个竞选过程中都支持留在加拿大。“阿尔伯塔省的分离主义运动只是加拿大更广泛的极右翼民粹主义运动的一部分。”

韦斯利指出，本周早些时候的投票中，独立公投并非唯一的议题。此外，还有五项关于移民的非约束性公投，包括省政府是否应该“加强管控”以及阿尔伯塔省是否应该要求选民出示公民身份证明。根据目前公布的非官方结果，所有公投似乎都已获得通过。

韦斯利说：“阿尔伯塔省的分离主义者与‘让美国再次伟大’运动的共同点远比与全球其他分离主义运动的共同点多得多。他们或许会在某个问题上失败，但他们不会就此罢休。他们会调整策略，找到另一个议题，而他们似乎在移民问题上找到了新的切入点。”

该运动因与美国右翼政治的联系而变得复杂，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特和SpaceX创始人埃隆·马斯克等知名人士都在煽动他们。

科里·摩根于2000年创立了阿尔伯塔独立党。他告诉CNN，从公投中他了解到，阿尔伯塔省的大多数民众根本不想脱离联邦。“坦白地说，这场运动还没做好准备，”摩根说道。

珍妮弗·戈蒂埃/路透社

但他同时指出，分裂主义的呼声被与美国的贸易战以及美国总统特朗普吞并加拿大的威胁所掩盖。包括拉斯本人在内的许多分裂主义者前往华盛顿会见特朗普政府官员，寻求支持——这一策略在国内可能适得其反。

摩根说：“这导致了不信任。我认为这个因素确实阻碍了今年该运动的发展。”

拉斯驳斥了这种分析，称他与特朗普政府的会面对于巩固美国的支持“非常有用”，以防独立成功，并表示那些对他的运动与美国的高层互动感到紧张的人是杞人忧天。

“加拿大很多人患有‘特朗普精神错乱综合症’吗？是的，”拉斯说。“我还能说什么呢？他们很容易被激怒，坦白说——我几乎是故意去激怒他们中的很多人。”

阿尔伯塔省拒绝脱离加拿大的公投，选择继续留在加拿大。

然而，加拿大其他一些分离主义运动似乎也领会了这一暗示。魁北克人党以略低于三分之一的得票率掌控了省议会，该党承诺在特朗普担任总统期间不会举行独立公投。

政治学家韦斯利说：“对美国吞并的恐惧极大地限制了人们冒险分裂加拿大的意愿。在投票时，与美国的关系是人们最为关注的问题。”

虽然摩根认为独立运动还没有准备好再次发起大规模进攻，但他认为周一获得的 50 万张选票是一个良好的开端。

摩根说：“这是一个坚实的基础，表明他们准备考虑这个选项。而且这个选项不会消失。”