(News Focus) What's next for Trump's Korea policy after U.S. midterms? Experts assess alliance friction, N.K. diplomacy（新闻焦点）美国中期选举后，特朗普的朝鲜政策下一步将走向何方？专家评估美韩同盟摩擦和朝鲜外交。
WASHINGTON, Oct. 24 (Yonhap) -- The upcoming U.S. midterm elections are unlikely...
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WASHINGTON, Oct. 24 (Yonhap) -- The upcoming U.S. midterm elections are unlikely to fundamentally alter Washington's approach toward its alliance with South Korea, but could affect President Donald Trump's demands on Seoul over security and trade, as well as his pursuit of renewed diplomacy with North Korea, according to Korean affairs experts.
In email interviews with Yonhap News Agency, the Washington-based experts generally anticipated continuity in U.S. policy toward the Korean Peninsula regardless of the election outcome, while pointing to potential changes in congressional oversight, bilateral economic relations and Trump's incentives to seek a diplomatic breakthrough with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Ellen Kim, a senior fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI), said the election outcome would likely have limited effects on U.S.-South Korea relations, although Democratic gains could bring greater scrutiny of the Trump administration's policies.
"The election outcome will likely have limited effects on U.S.-ROK bilateral issues," she said, referring to South Korea by its official name, the Republic of Korea.
"A Democratic victory could lead to greater congressional scrutiny and oversight of Trump administration policies, such as tariffs and security matters including U.S.-South Korea civil nuclear cooperation and nuclear-powered submarines," Kim added.
U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a meeting with cryptocurrency executives in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Aug. 19, 2026, in this file photo released by AFP. (Yonhap)
Robert Rapson, former acting U.S. ambassador to Seoul, warned that the alliance could continue to experience difficulties stemming from Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy, regardless of the election outcome.
"This likely means even more 'turbulence' for the U.S.-ROK alliance," Rapson said, adding that the growing range of bilateral issues underscored the need for careful diplomacy by both governments.
Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said Republican losses could constrain Trump through congressional oversight, legislation and budget decisions, but would be unlikely to produce a sharp change in Washington's Korea policy.
Yeo noted tariffs, defense burden-sharing, intelligence frictions and coordination on Middle East policy as potential sources of strain in the alliance, noting that developments would depend heavily on decisions by Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung.
South Korea and the United States have faced signs of friction in the intelligence field following Seoul Unification Minister Chung Dong-young's public disclosure in March of a North Korean uranium enrichment facility in Kusong, North Korea.
Yeo also cautioned against potential U.S. policy decisions that could sideline Seoul in diplomacy with Pyongyang or affect military exercises and force posture in ways that could weaken deterrence.
Scott Snyder, president and chief executive officer (CEO) of KEI, said the election results would be less consequential for the alliance than Seoul's ability to align its priorities with Trump's agenda and secure his attention amid competing international crises.
"How Korea catches the time and attention of the president will be the most critical factor shaping outcomes for the U.S.-Korea relationship," Snyder said.
On trade and investment, Yeo said Republican losses could soften Trump's investment demands on South Korea, while a Republican victory could embolden him to seek additional South Korean investment in the U.S. semiconductor industry.
Kim said substantial trade authority rests with the executive branch, making it difficult for Congress to reverse the administration's tariff policies, even if Democrats gain control of one or both chambers.
She noted that congressional efforts to challenge Trump's tariffs through legislation could face the hurdle of securing enough votes to override a presidential veto.
Patrick Cronin, chair for Asia-Pacific security at the Hudson Institute, offered a somewhat different assessment, suggesting that Democratic control of Congress could help stabilize the alliance and encourage Trump to follow through on bilateral investment initiatives.
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung (L) and U.S. President Donald Trump hold summit talks at a hotel in New York in this Sept. 22, 2026, file photo. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)
"Democratic control of Congress should stabilize the alliance and encourage President Trump to follow through on one aspect of the alliance where he can declare success: attracting historic investment in energy, shipbuilding and other sectors," Cronin said.
On North Korea, some experts suggested that the election results could influence Trump's incentives to revive diplomacy with Kim Jong-un, although they emphasized that the prospects for meaningful negotiations would depend largely on Pyongyang's willingness to engage.
Kim of KEI said Republican losses could prompt Trump to seek more foreign policy achievements, potentially increasing his interest in renewed engagement with North Korea.
"The midterm election loss could prompt President Trump to seek a diplomatic breakthrough with North Korea even more eagerly," she said.
She added that Pyongyang would closely assess whether Washington was prepared to make concessions to facilitate negotiations.
Rapson said Trump's interest in resolving unfinished diplomatic business with North Korea would likely persist regardless of the election outcome, barring major political turmoil. He also anticipated Trump's continued interest in a summit with Kim into 2027, even if the two leaders fail to meet during Trump's Asia trip next month.
Yeo said the midterm results would have little bearing on whether another Trump-Kim summit materializes, noting that the North Korean leader's assessment of the timing would be crucial to any resumption of dialogue.
Cronin said a change in congressional control could encourage Trump to focus more on foreign policy, while increasing legislative scrutiny, potentially limiting his room to make major concessions in negotiations with Pyongyang.
"So, while President Trump may succeed in resuming summit-level talks with Kim Jong-un, he will likely find his room for serious policy constrained," Cronin said. "For instance, reducing U.S. sanctions or withdrawing U.S. forces in South Korea would be easier said than done."
This AFP file photo shows U.S. President Donald Trump (R) shaking hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un after signing a joint statement at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa Island in Singapore on June 12, 2018. (Yonhap)
odissy@yna.co.kr (END)
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(News Focus) What's next for Trump's Korea policy after U.S. midterms? Experts assess alliance friction, N.K. diplomacy
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华盛顿，10月24日（韩联社）——据韩国事务专家称，即将到来的美国中期选举不太可能从根本上改变华盛顿对韩美联盟的态度，但可能会影响唐纳德·特朗普总统对首尔在安全和贸易方面的要求，以及他寻求重启与朝鲜的外交努力。
在接受韩联社电子邮件采访时，华盛顿的专家们普遍预计，无论选举结果如何，美国对朝鲜半岛的政策都将保持不变，同时他们也指出，国会监督、双边经济关系以及特朗普寻求与朝鲜领导人金正恩达成外交突破的动机都可能发生变化。
美国韩国经济研究所 (KEI) 高级研究员艾伦·金表示，尽管民主党的胜利可能会使特朗普政府的政策受到更多审视，但选举结果可能对美韩关系的影响有限。
“选举结果可能对美韩双边问题影响有限，”她说道，这里她指的是韩国的正式名称——大韩民国。
金补充说：“民主党的胜利可能会导致国会对特朗普政府的政策进行更严格的审查和监督，例如关税和安全问题，包括美韩民用核能合作和核动力潜艇。”
2026年8月19日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在华盛顿白宫罗斯福厅会见加密货币高管时发表讲话。（法新社发布）
美国前驻首尔代理大使罗伯特·拉普森警告说，无论选举结果如何，由于特朗普奉行的交易型外交政策，美韩同盟可能会继续面临困难。
拉普森表示，“这可能意味着美韩联盟将面临更大的‘动荡’”，并补充说，日益增多的双边问题凸显了两国政府谨慎开展外交的必要性。
布鲁金斯学会高级研究员安德鲁·叶奥表示，共和党的失败可能会通过国会的监督、立法和预算决定来制约特朗普，但不太可能导致华盛顿的韩国政策发生剧烈变化。
Yeo指出，关税、防务负担分担、情报摩擦以及中东政策协调等问题都可能导致美韩联盟关系紧张，并指出事态发展将很大程度上取决于特朗普和韩国总统李在明的决定。
韩国统一部长官郑东荣3月份公开披露朝鲜龟城拥有铀浓缩设施后，韩国和美国在情报领域出现了摩擦迹象。
叶奥还警告说，美国可能出台的政策决定可能会使首尔在与平壤的外交中被边缘化，或者影响军事演习和兵力部署，从而削弱威慑力。
韩国经济研究所（KEI）总裁兼首席执行官斯科特·斯奈德表示，选举结果对韩美同盟的影响远不如首尔能否在国际危机相互交织的情况下，使其优先事项与特朗普的议程保持一致并赢得他的关注重要。
斯奈德表示：“韩国如何吸引总统的时间和注意力，将是决定美韩关系走向的最关键因素。”
关于贸易和投资，叶奥表示，共和党的失败可能会削弱特朗普对韩国的投资要求，而共和党的胜利可能会让他更加大胆地寻求韩国对美国半导体行业的额外投资。
金表示，实质性的贸易权力掌握在行政部门手中，即使民主党控制了参众两院中的一院或两院，国会也很难推翻政府的关税政策。
她指出，国会试图通过立法挑战特朗普的关税政策，但可能面临获得足够票数推翻总统否决的障碍。
哈德逊研究所亚太安全主席帕特里克·克罗宁提出了略有不同的评估，他认为民主党控制国会可能有助于稳定美伊联盟，并鼓励特朗普落实双边投资倡议。
这张摄于2026年9月22日的资料照片显示，韩国总统李在明（左）和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在纽约一家酒店举行峰会会谈。（联营照片）（韩联社）
克罗宁表示：“民主党控制国会应该能够稳定联盟，并鼓励特朗普总统在联盟的一个方面——吸引对能源、造船和其他领域的历史性投资——取得进展，从而宣布联盟的成功。”
关于朝鲜问题，一些专家认为，选举结果可能会影响特朗普重启与金正恩外交的动力，尽管他们强调，进行有意义的谈判的前景很大程度上取决于平壤的参与意愿。
朝鲜经济研究所的金表示，共和党的失败可能会促使特朗普寻求更多的外交政策成就，这可能会增加他对重新与朝鲜接触的兴趣。
“中期选举的失利可能会促使特朗普总统更加积极地寻求与朝鲜的外交突破，”她说。
她补充说，平壤将密切评估华盛顿是否准备做出让步以促进谈判。
拉普森表示，除非出现重大政治动荡，否则无论选举结果如何，特朗普对解决与朝鲜未决外交问题的意愿都可能持续存在。他还预计，即便特朗普和金正恩下个月的亚洲之行期间未能会面，特朗普仍会持续关注与金正恩举行峰会，直至2027年。
叶表示，中期选举结果对特朗普和金正恩能否再次举行峰会影响不大，并指出朝鲜领导人对时机的评估对任何恢复对话的尝试都至关重要。
克罗宁表示，国会控制权的改变可能会促使特朗普更加关注外交政策，同时增加立法审查，这可能会限制他在与平壤的谈判中做出重大让步的空间。
克罗宁说：“因此，尽管特朗普总统可能成功恢复与金正恩的峰会级别会谈，但他可能会发现其在严肃政策方面的空间受到限制。例如，减少美国对韩国的制裁或从韩国撤出美军，说起来容易做起来难。”
这张法新社资料照片显示，2018年6月12日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（右）在新加坡圣淘沙岛嘉佩乐酒店签署联合声明后与朝鲜领导人金正恩握手。（韩联社）
odissy@yna.co.kr (完)
美国专家：鉴于朝鲜的要求，特朗普与金正恩近期不太可能举行峰会。
美国最高特使称，由于安全和贸易优先事项出现分歧，韩美同盟关系正处于“动荡”之中。
分析：朝鲜可能在特朗普第二个任期内增加导弹发射，试探其红线。
（新闻焦点）美国中期选举后，特朗普的朝鲜政策下一步将走向何方？专家评估美韩同盟摩擦和朝鲜外交。