Israel’s election: Five key things to know

High-stakes vote comes as Israel is mbroiled in multiple years-long conflicts, faces growing international criticism and grapples with deepening domestic polarisation.

People walk past an election billboard showing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with the Hebrew phrase 'We will not surrender' in Tel Aviv, Israel, October 6 [Abir Sultan/EPA]

Israelis will head to the polls on Tuesday for legislative elections.

The vote, the first since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023 and the subsequent genocidal war against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, is being called one of the most important in its history .

list 1 of 3 US support for Israel continues three years into the genocide in Gaza

list 2 of 3 Israel’s deadline to close UK consulate in East Jerusalem nears

list 3 of 3 Protesters in Colombia rally against ties with Israel

It will determine the direction of Israel’s government as the country remains embroiled in multiple years-long conflicts, faces growing international criticism and grapples with deepening polarisation at home.

Here are five things to know about the upcoming election:

Which are the main parties and what do opinion polls suggest?

Any party clearing an electoral threshold of 3.25 percent enters parliament, whose term lasts four years.

There are two main blocs vying to lead the next government.

The first is the pro-Netanyahu coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and joined by several far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. These include United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas – both conservative religious parties – and Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut, led respectively by far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

The main opposition coalition comprises four Jewish-led opposition movements – the Yashar party, led by former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot, the Democrats, led by former deputy military chief of staff Yair Golan, the Yisrael Beiteinu party, led by former Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman and the Together alliance, led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and joined by Knesset opposition leader Yair Lapid.

The latest opinion polls published before a ban on new surveys took effect on Friday showed that neither bloc was on course to secure a parliamentary majority of 61 seats.

A poll by public broadcaster KAN projected that the opposition alliance would win 52 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, compared with 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc, with the remaining seats going to unaffiliated parties, including the country’s two main Arab-majority political lists – Ra’am, also called the United Arab List, and the Joint List, an alliance of Hadash, Balad and Ta’al parties.

However, both the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs have effectively ruled out joining forces with the Arab-led parties for now.

The fractured landscape means Israeli parties could be in for tough post-election negotiations to cobble together a governing majority. If those efforts fail, Israel could end up with a minority government reliant on support from parties outside the governing coalition – or potentially head to another round of elections.

What are the key issues?

Israelis are grappling with a series of domestic and international crises this election cycle.

On the domestic front, there is growing demand for accountability for reported security failures, including those leading up to the October 2023 attacks, anger over the growing ultra-Orthodox community’s military exemption and concern over Netanyahu’s repeated efforts to push judicial reforms that critics say undermine Israel’s liberal democratic order.

“The secular and liberal opposition factions in Israel feel this election is the last chance to save Israeli democracy and restore the institutions that have eroded over Netanyahu’s successive terms,” Mairav Zonszein, an Israeli-American commentator who is a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.

A war-weary public is also weighing how Israel should proceed with its multiple military conflicts, with many voters seeking security and economic stability while remaining resistant to perceived concessions in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon.

What makes this election so important?

It is Israel’s first election since the October 2023 attacks and comes amid a surge in far-right attitudes and growing divisions over the direction of the country.

“Strains of Israeli society had always been given to violence and right-wing rhetoric, but the trends that had always been present had accelerated under the current government,” prominent Israeli sociologist Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani told Al Jazeera.

The election also comes as Israel’s international standing has deteriorated, with a host of Israel’s allies sanctioning its illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank, and many other nations denouncing the country’s continued attacks in Gaza and Lebanon.

When Netanyahu addressed the United Nations General Assembly on September 24, dozens of envoys from around the world walked out , some jeering and booing.

The outcome of the upcoming vote could determine whether Israel’s next government maintains its approach to the international community or seeks to repair ties.

What does it mean for Netanyahu’s political future?

Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister who has led the country for more than 15 of the last 17 years, and a total of 19, faces growing scrutiny at home and abroad over alleged security failures leading up to the October 7 attack, as well as corruption charges he has been battling since 2019.

An electoral defeat would also leave Netanyahu more exposed to his ongoing corruption trial, which could ultimately result in a prison sentence if he is convicted.

A new government could also affect the prospects of a potential commission of inquiry into the October 2023 attacks and Netanyahu’s political standing as he faces an arrest warrant for war crimes issued by the International Criminal Court.

What about Palestinian citizens of Israel?

About 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote in Tuesday’s election, including Palestinian citizens of Israel, who number about 1.2 million.

Meanwhile, roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem have no say in the government that controls their borders, movement and legal status.

Recent polling suggested that the turnout among the Palestinian citizens of Israel could reach 60 percent, with the majority of the votes expected to go the Arab lists, which are the principal representatives of Palestinian citizens of Israel. If turnout reaches 65 percent, these parties could potentially win as many as 15 seats in the Knesset. Campaigners are aiming for 70 percent turnout, which would be the highest in decades and raise the threshold, keeping smaller parties out of parliament.

Last month, Israel’s Central Elections Committee voted to bar the Joint List and Ra’am from the election.

Israel’s top court quickly reversed that decision, enabling the Arab parties to stay in the race. However, the court did force Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh to withdraw from the race over an article in which he described the October 7 attacks as “an important historical event”.

The role of Arab parties is going to be significant. Both major coalitions have ruled out joining forces with them for now, but without them, neither coalition might be able to form a majority.

Netanyahu has repeatedly sought to portray his opponents as potential partners of the Arab parties, claiming that an opposition-led government will seek their support and that only his Likud party can prevent this.

Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Israeli Knesset member Ayman Odeh, said politically alienating Arab parties is part of Netanyahu’s political strategy, which could allow him to remain in office as a caretaker prime minister if neither coalition forms a majority.

“If Palestinian-led party support becomes politically toxic and the opposition falls short of 61 seats, the deadlock itself becomes the latest win for Netanyahu,” wrote Mansour for the Arab Center Washington DC.

以色列正深陷多年冲突，面临日益增长的国际批评，并努力应对日益加深的国内两极分化，此时举行了这场至关重要的投票。

10月6日，以色列特拉维夫，人们走过一块竞选广告牌，广告牌上印着以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的头像，旁边写着希伯来语“我们绝不投降”。[Abir Sultan/EPA]

以色列人将于周二前往投票站参加立法选举。

此次投票是自 2023 年 10 月 7 日哈马斯领导的袭击以色列以及随后在加沙地带对巴勒斯坦人发动种族灭绝战争以来的首次投票，被称为以色列历史上最重要的投票之一。

列表1/3：加沙种族灭绝三年后，美国对以色列的支持仍在继续。

以色列关闭英国驻东耶路撒冷领事馆的最后期限临近（共3条，此为第2条）

哥伦比亚抗议者集会反对与以色列建立关系（共3条，此为第3条）

这将决定以色列政府的发展方向，因为该国仍然深陷多年冲突，面临日益增长的国际批评，并且正在努力应对国内日益加深的两极分化。

以下是关于即将到来的选举需要了解的五件事：

主要政党有哪些？民意调查结果如何？

任何政党只要获得 3.25% 的选举支持率，即可进入议会，任期为四年。

目前有两个主要阵营正在争夺下一届政府的领导权。

第一个是支持内塔尼亚胡的联盟，由总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团牵头，并联合了几个极右翼和极端正统派政党。其中包括联合托拉犹太教党（UTJ）和沙斯党——这两个都是保守的宗教政党——以及分别由极右翼部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔和贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇领导的奥茨玛·耶胡迪党和宗教犹太复国主义-泽胡特党。

主要反对派联盟由四个犹太人领导的反对派运动组成——由前以色列军事总司令加迪·艾森科特领导的亚沙尔党、由前副总参谋长亚伊尔·戈兰领导的民主党、由前财政部长阿维格多·利伯曼领导的以色列家园党，以及由前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特领导、以色列议会反对派领袖亚伊尔·拉皮德加入的团结联盟。

在周五禁止进行新的民意调查之前公布的最新民意调查显示，两个阵营都未能获得议会61个席位的多数席位。

公共广播公司 KAN 的一项民意调查预测，反对派联盟将赢得以色列议会 120 个席位中的 52 个，而内塔尼亚胡的阵营将赢得 50 个席位，其余席位将分配给无党派政党，其中包括该国两个主要的阿拉伯人占多数的政治名单——拉姆党（也称为联合阿拉伯名单）和联合名单（由哈达什党、巴拉德党和塔阿勒党组成的联盟）。

然而，支持内塔尼亚胡和反对内塔尼亚胡的阵营目前都已明确排除与阿拉伯政党结盟的可能性。

以色列政坛的分裂局面意味着各党派在选后可能面临艰难的谈判，以拼凑出一个执政多数派。如果这些努力失败，以色列最终可能出现一个依赖执政联盟之外其他党派支持的少数派政府，或者不得不再次举行大选。

关键问题是什么？

以色列人在本届选举周期中正努力应对一系列国内和国际危机。

在国内方面，人们越来越要求对已报道的安全失误追究责任，包括导致 2023 年 10 月袭击事件的失误；人们对日益壮大的极端正统派社区获得兵役豁免感到愤怒；并对内塔尼亚胡一再推动司法改革表示担忧，批评人士称这些改革破坏了以色列的自由民主秩序。

“以色列的世俗和自由派反对派认为，这次选举是拯救以色列民主、恢复在内塔尼亚胡连续执政期间遭到侵蚀的制度的最后机会，”以色列裔美国评论员、国际危机组织高级分析师迈拉夫·宗斯泽因告诉半岛电视台。

饱受战争之苦的公众也在权衡以色列应该如何处理其多起军事冲突，许多选民寻求安全和经济稳定，同时仍然抵制在加沙、被占领的西岸和黎巴嫩做出任何让步。

这次选举为何如此重要？

这是以色列自 2023 年 10 月袭击事件以来的首次选举，正值极右翼势力抬头、国家发展方向分歧日益加剧之际。

“以色列社会一直存在暴力和右翼言论的倾向，但这些一直存在的趋势在现任政府的领导下加速发展，”以色列著名社会学家耶胡达·申哈夫-沙赫拉巴尼告诉半岛电视台。

此次选举正值以色列国际地位恶化之际，以色列的许多盟友认可其在被占领的西岸地区建立非法定居点，许多其他国家谴责该国在加沙和黎巴嫩持续发动袭击。

9月24日，内塔尼亚胡在联合国大会上发表讲话时，来自世界各地的数十名代表愤然离场，一些人还发出嘲笑和嘘声。

即将举行的投票结果可能决定以色列下一届政府是维持其对国际社会的政策，还是寻求修复与国际社会的关系。

这对内塔尼亚胡的政治前途意味着什么？

内塔尼亚胡是以色列任期最长的总理，在过去的 17 年中，他领导该国超过 15 年，总共执政 19 年。他因涉嫌在 10 月 7 日袭击事件发生前的安全失误，以及自 2019 年以来一直面临的腐败指控，在国内和国际上都面临着越来越大的审查。

选举失败也会让内塔尼亚胡面临更大的风险，他目前正在接受的腐败审判可能会让他最终被判入狱。

新政府的成立也可能影响对 2023 年 10 月袭击事件进行调查的潜在委员会的前景，以及内塔尼亚胡的政治地位，因为他面临着国际刑事法院签发的战争罪逮捕令。

那么以色列的巴勒斯坦公民呢？

约有 730 万以色列公民有资格参加周二的选举，其中包括约 120 万以色列巴勒斯坦公民。

与此同时，加沙、被占领的西岸和被占领的东耶路撒冷约有 300 万成年巴勒斯坦人，他们对控制其边界、行动和法律地位的政府没有任何发言权。

近期民调显示，以色列巴勒斯坦公民的投票率可能达到60%，预计大多数选票将流向阿拉伯政党联盟，这些联盟是以色列巴勒斯坦公民的主要代表。如果投票率达到65%，这些政党有可能在以色列议会（Knesset）赢得多达15个席位。竞选团队的目标是70%的投票率，这将是数十年来最高的投票率，并提高议会门槛，从而将小党派拒之门外。

上个月，以色列中央选举委员会投票决定禁止联合名单党和拉姆党参加选举。

以色列最高法院迅速推翻了这一决定，使阿拉伯政党得以继续参选。然而，法院也迫使巴拉德党领导人萨米·阿布·谢哈德退出竞选，原因是他在一篇文章中将10月7日的袭击事件描述为“一个重要的历史事件”。

阿拉伯政党的作用将十分重要。两大联盟目前都已排除与它们结盟的可能性，但如果没有它们的参与，任何一方都可能无法组成多数联盟。

内塔尼亚胡一再试图将他的反对派描绘成阿拉伯政党的潜在合作伙伴，声称反对派领导的政府将寻求他们的支持，而只有他的利库德集团才能阻止这种情况发生。

以色列议会议员艾曼·奥德的前助手约瑟夫·曼苏尔表示，在政治上疏远阿拉伯政党是内塔尼亚胡政治策略的一部分，如果两个联盟都未能组成多数派，这可能会让他继续担任看守总理。

“如果巴勒斯坦领导的政党的支持在政治上变得有害，反对派未能获得 61 个席位，那么僵局本身就成了内塔尼亚胡的最新胜利，”曼苏尔在华盛顿特区阿拉伯中心写道。