Brazil's Lula wins historic fourth term, Flavio Bolsonaro refuses to concede

Brazil’s electoral court declared Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva the winner of a fourth presidential term in Sao Paulo on Sunday, while Flavio Bolsonaro refused to concede and said he would seek annulment over an extension of voting. Bolsonaro lost the runoff by more than 4 million votes after leading the first round. Lula’s victory came as Brazil elected a conservative Congress and faced fiscal and economic pressures. Analysts said protests were possible but reversal of the result was very improbable.

A Tokyo-listed exchange-traded fund tracking Brazil’s Bovespa index fell nearly 15% in Asian trading after Lula’s victory, and the Brazilian real was expected to fall sharply against the U.S. dollar.

Brazil’s government forecasts economic growth of 2.3% next year, while public debt has risen above 82% of GDP, its highest level since the pandemic.

Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party and allied parties could hold more than 280 seats in the lower house and up to 50 Senate seats.

Lula’s campaign pledged free nationwide weekend public transport, which must be submitted to Congress, and a 15% increase in his welfare program that was already being implemented.

Lula became the first candidate since Brazil returned to democracy in the 1980s to win the presidency after finishing second in the first round.

Published Oct 26, 2026 4:33 pm KST

Supporters gather to watch Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the Workers' Party (PT) candidate for re-election, speak after his victory in the presidential runoff election, at Paulista Avenue, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Oct. 25. Reuters-Yonhap

SAO PAULO — Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won a historic fourth term on Sunday, the country's electoral court said, in a shock result that defied polls, precedent and global anti-incumbent sentiment to put the brakes on a wave of right-wing election victories across Latin America.

However, his opponent Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, refused to accept defeat and said he would ask for the result to be annulled due to a Sunday ruling from a Supreme Court justice that extended voting for two hours.

Bolsonaro led the election's first round but lost in the runoff by over 4 million votes, rattling Brazilian financial markets which had bet on his victory. His refusal to concede defeat has echoes of his father's reaction after losing to Lula in 2022. Jair Bolsonaro never accepted his loss and was later sentenced by the Supreme Court to 27-years in prison for plotting a coup to remain in power.

The scale of Flavio Bolsonaro's loss to Lula — by more than twice his father's losing margin — and the fact his campaign also asked for an extension due to rains in the conservative-leaning south make any annulment unlikely, analysts said.

Mario Braga, a Latin America analyst at the risk consultancy RANE, said there could be right-wing protests in coming days, but "it's very improbable that it will lead to the reversal of the result."

Investors expect recent bets on a change of government to unwind in a volatile week ahead on financial markets. A Tokyo-listed exchange-traded fund tracking Brazil's Bovespa index dived nearly 15% in Asia trade on news of Lula's victory, while the Brazilian real was set to fall sharply against the US dollar.

The victory marks another comeback in a career full of them for Lula, an icon of the global left and the most dominant force in Brazilian politics this century. The 80-year-old was jailed from 2018 to 2019 on corruption charges that were later overturned, paving the way for him to beat Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election.

"He is a statesman, a giant," leftist federal lawmaker Erika Hilton, who was with Lula in Sao Paulo during the vote count, told Reuters.

At times, Lula's reelection looked like a long shot, as voters soured on him and his Workers' Party after years of corruption scandals and rising prices, while sweeping social changes left the former metalworker and union leader looking out of touch with an increasingly app-based economy and its growing ranks of informal workers.

Pollsters said better-than-expected turnout had powered Lula to victory. Leonardo Barreto, the co-founder of consultancy Think Policy, said voters had chosen Lula's familiar embrace over Bolsonaro's novelty.

"People today are choosing between change, with some apprehension, and a known path, which guarantees certain rights," he said.

During the campaign, Lula pointed to a track record of falling poverty and inequality, while unemployment, illiteracy and deforestation hit record lows during his third term.

He warned Bolsonaro would cut welfare spending, backslide on social advances and hand over Brazil's sovereignty to US President Donald Trump, whose State Department led a campaign to get the Bolsonaros back to power.

Lula's win deprives Trump of a major addition to what has been a growing bloc of friendly right-wing Latin American governments that have embraced Washington's agenda on security and migration.

There was no immediate comment from Trump or the US State Department, while Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Latin American leaders were quick to offer their congratulations.

Celso Amorim, a former Lula foreign minister, told Reuters the leftist "would be very important for establishing a point of balance in Latin America. Lula is that balance."

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the Workers' Party (PT) candidate for re-election, gestures as he addresses supporters after his victory in the presidential runoff election, at Paulista Avenue, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Oct. 26. Reuters-Yonhap

Lula becomes the first candidate since Brazil's return to democracy in the 1980s to be elected after finishing second in the first round.

His campaign this year mixed the kind of pragmatism and populism that has shaped his career in national politics for half a century, rolling out a slew of reforms aimed at improving the lives of workers and poor Brazilians.

These gained steam with late-campaign pledges that ranged from free nationwide weekend public transport, which has to be formally submitted to Congress, to a 15% increase in his trademark welfare program that is already being implemented.

Lula also championed a constitutional amendment that became Brazil's biggest labor reform in decades, which passed with wide support in Congress.

Still, Lula's fourth term could be his most difficult yet, after Brazil elected its most conservative Congress since returning to democracy in the 1980s.

Combined, Bolsonaro's Liberal Party and allied parties could control over 280 seats in the lower house and up to 50 seats in the Senate, enough for comfortable opposition majorities in both chambers.

That may deepen recent trends of presidents ceding power to Congress on the budget, major legislation and key nominations.

Lula faces an economy that his government forecasts will grow just 2.3% next year, adding to fiscal concerns tied to high interest rates and public debt that has risen past 82% of GDP, the highest since the pandemic.

Goldman Sachs said it expects Lula to make modest progress at most to contain spending in a fourth term, as he stays committed to a state-led growth model.

Surging household debt also concerns economists. Trying to address the issue, Lula rolled out a provisional ban on online betting and unveiled a new debt relief program during the campaign.

The incoming right-wing Congress will try to pass structural reforms that favor businesses, experts say, prompting spending cuts that could trigger popular backlash.

巴西选举法院周日在圣保罗宣布路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦赢得第四个总统任期，而弗拉维奥·博索纳罗拒绝承认败选，并表示将就延长投票时间寻求选举结果无效。博索纳罗在第一轮投票中领先，但在第二轮投票中以超过400万张选票的差距落败。卢拉的胜利正值巴西选出保守派国会，并面临财政和经济压力之际。分析人士表示，可能会出现抗议活动，但推翻选举结果的可能性极小。

追踪巴西博维斯帕指数的东京上市交易所交易基金在卢拉胜选后，亚洲交易时段下跌近 15%，预计巴西雷亚尔对美元将大幅下跌。

巴西政府预测明年经济增长率为 2.3%，而公共债务已升至 GDP 的 82% 以上，为疫情爆发以来的最高水平。

博索纳罗的自由党及其盟友可能在众议院拥有超过 280 个席位，在参议院拥有多达 50 个席位。

卢拉的竞选承诺在周末实行全国免费公共交通，但必须提交国会审议；他还承诺将已在实施的福利计划提高 15%。

卢拉成为自巴西上世纪 80 年代恢复民主以来，首位在第一轮投票中排名第二，最终赢得总统大选的候选人。

发布于2026年10月26日下午4:33（韩国标准时间）

10月25日，在巴西圣保罗保利斯塔大道，支持者聚集观看巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦（劳工党候选人）在总统选举第二轮投票中获胜后发表讲话。路透社-韩联社

圣保罗——巴西选举法院周日宣布，巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦赢得历史性的第四个任期。这一令人震惊的结果违背了民意调查、先例以及全球反现任情绪，遏制了拉丁美洲右翼选举胜利的浪潮。

然而，他的对手、前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的长子、参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗拒绝接受失败，并表示他将要求宣布选举结果无效，因为最高法院一名法官在周日裁定将投票时间延长了两个小时。

博索纳罗在首轮选举中领先，但在第二轮投票中以超过400万张选票的差距落败，这令押注他获胜的巴西金融市场震荡不已。他拒绝承认败选，这与他父亲在2022年败给卢拉后的反应如出一辙。雅伊尔·博索纳罗从未接受败选结果，后来被最高法院以策划政变以继续掌权的罪名判处27年监禁。

分析人士表示，弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗败给卢拉的幅度——比他父亲的败选幅度大了两倍多——而且他的竞选团队还因为保守派倾向的南部地区下雨而要求延长选举时间，这些都使得选举结果不太可能被宣布无效。

风险咨询公司 RANE 的拉丁美洲分析师马里奥·布拉加表示，未来几天可能会出现右翼抗议活动，但“不太可能导致选举结果逆转”。

投资者预计，近期押注巴西政府更迭的行情将在未来一周金融市场波动中消退。受卢拉胜选消息的影响，追踪巴西博维斯帕指数的东京上市交易所交易基金（ETF）在亚洲交易时段暴跌近15%，而巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率也预计将大幅下跌。

这场胜利标志着卢拉在其充满传奇色彩的政治生涯中又一次成功逆袭。卢拉是全球左翼的标志性人物，也是本世纪巴西政坛最具影响力的人物。这位80岁的老人曾于2018年至2019年因腐败指控入狱，但后来指控被推翻，这为他在2022年大选中击败雅伊尔·博索纳罗铺平了道路。

“他是一位政治家，一位伟人，”在圣保罗计票期间与卢拉在一起的左翼联邦议员埃里卡·希尔顿告诉路透社。

卢拉的连任一度看起来希望渺茫，因为多年来的腐败丑闻和物价上涨让选民对他和他的劳工党感到失望，而席卷全球的社会变革也让这位前金属工人和工会领导人显得与日益依赖应用程序的经济及其不断增长的非正规就业队伍脱节。

民调机构表示，高于预期的投票率助力卢拉赢得大选。政策咨询公司Think Policy的联合创始人莱昂纳多·巴雷托表示，选民们选择了卢拉的亲切感，而不是博索纳罗的新奇感。

他说：“如今人们面临着两种选择：一种是充满担忧地迎接变革，另一种是选择一条能够保障某些权利的已知道路。”

在竞选期间，卢拉指出，在他的第三个任期内，贫困和不平等现象有所减少，失业率、文盲率和森林砍伐率均创历史新低。

他警告说，博索纳罗将削减福利支出，在社会进步方面倒退，并将巴西的主权拱手让给美国总统唐纳德·特朗普，而特朗普的国务院曾领导了一场让博索纳罗家族重掌政权的运动。

卢拉的胜选使特朗普失去了一个重要的盟友，他原本希望加入一个日益壮大的友好右翼拉美政府联盟，这些政府都拥护华盛顿在安全和移民问题上的议程。

特朗普和美国国务院尚未对此发表评论，而加拿大总理马克·卡尼和拉丁美洲领导人则迅速表示祝贺。

卢拉的前外交部长塞尔索·阿莫林告诉路透社，这位左翼人士“对于在拉丁美洲建立平衡点非常重要。卢拉就是这种平衡点。”

10月26日，在巴西圣保罗保利斯塔大道，巴西总统、劳工党候选人路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在总统选举第二轮投票中获胜后，向支持者发表讲话并做出手势。路透社-韩联社

卢拉成为自巴西上世纪 80 年代恢复民主以来，首位在第一轮投票中排名第二，最终当选的候选人。

他今年的竞选活动融合了实用主义和民粹主义，这种风格塑造了他半个世纪以来在国家政治领域的职业生涯，并推出了一系列旨在改善巴西工人和贫困人口生活的改革措施。

这些承诺在竞选后期获得了更多支持，其中包括：免费提供全国周末公共交通（需正式提交国会审议），以及将他标志性的福利计划提高 15%（该计划已开始实施）。

卢拉还大力推动了一项宪法修正案，该修正案成为巴西几十年来最大的劳工改革，并在国会获得广泛支持通过。

不过，由于巴西选出了自 20 世纪 80 年代恢复民主以来最保守的国会，卢拉的第四个任期可能是他迄今为止最艰难的任期。

博索纳罗的自由党及其盟友政党加起来，可以在众议院控制超过 280 个席位，在参议院控制多达 50 个席位，足以在两院都获得稳固的反对派多数席位。

这可能会加剧近年来总统在预算、重大立法和关键提名方面将权力让渡给国会的趋势。

卢拉面临的经济形势是，他的政府预测明年经济增长率仅为 2.3%，这加剧了与高利率和公共债务相关的财政担忧，公共债务已超过 GDP 的 82%，为疫情爆发以来的最高水平。

高盛表示，预计卢拉在第四个任期内最多只能在控制支出方面取得有限进展，因为他仍然坚持国家主导的增长模式。

家庭债务飙升也令经济学家担忧。为了解决这个问题，卢拉在竞选期间推出了一项临时禁令，禁止网络赌博，并公布了一项新的债务减免计划。

专家表示，即将上任的右翼国会将试图通过有利于企业的结构性改革，这将导致开支削减，并可能引发民众的强烈反对。