Iran hosts Saudi Arabia and regional powers as fears grow of return to war

Saudi Press Agency/Handout/Reuters/File

Saudi Arabia and its allies dispatched top security officials to Iran for talks on Monday amid fears of a fresh US-Israeli offensive that could plunge the Middle East into further instability.

Pakistani military chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin joined Saudi Prince Khalid bin Salman in Tehran for meetings with Iran’s top officials, including national security chief Mohsen Rezaei and President Masoud Pezeshkian.

The meeting in Tehran comes at a tense moment in the Middle East as speculation grows that President Donald Trump could order new strikes on Iran after next week’s midterm elections. It also marks the first high-level contact between Iran and Saudi Arabia since Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis escalated attacks against Saudi targets last month.

The meeting will discuss “de-escalation” between parties involved in the “ongoing crisis,” a Saudi Foreign Ministry official, Rayed Krimly, said. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, told reporters the talks may serve as a prelude to “establishing a regional security framework.”

Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

US has plans for major Iran strikes if Trump chooses

“We have consistently emphasized that regional security can only be ensured by relying on the will and security considerations of the countries of the region,” Baghaei added.

Saudi, Turkey and Pakistan represent the Mecca Alliance – a newly formed coalition of three of the region’s largest powers. The pact, under which an attack on one is deemed an attack against all, has drawn scrutiny for uniting nuclear-armed Pakistan, Turkey’s military strength and Saudi Arabia’s financial resources.

Pakistan has been a key intermediary between Washington and Tehran since the war started in February.

“The significance of the meeting lies primarily in its timing and the officials involved,” Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank, told CNN. “It comes at a moment when the risk of another round of war between Iran and the United States is growing, and the three members of the Mecca Pact have direct security interests at stake.”

The visit by Khalid bin Salman – a Saudi royal and brother of the kingdom’s de-facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – surprised observers. Iran and Saudi Arabia represent competing religious ideologies and have been locked in a regional rivalry for decades, culminating in an outright confrontation earlier this year after the US and Israel launched a war on the Islamic Republic.

US orders departure of some embassy staff and families from Saudi Arabia amid Houthi threat

Iran struck Washington’s regional allies, including Saudi Arabia, after the US and Israel killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with much of his military brass and top nuclear scientists in February. Iran’s allies and proxies, including those in Iraq and Yemen, have also struck Saudi oil facilities and civilian infrastructure, putting unprecedented pressure on the kingdom.

Countries in the Middle East are concerned that a fresh US offensive against Iran would invite further Iranian retaliation after eight months of instability in the Middle East.

Sufficient US forces are now deployed in the region to carry out the potential attacks, two US officials told CNN. The scope of new US military operations would likely go beyond efforts to simply “mow the lawn” or maintain the status quo by striking radars, launchers and other Iranian assets that can be quickly reconstituted — as has been the case since Trump halted full combat operations earlier this year, the sources added.

After months of retaliatory Iranian missile and drone projectiles on its US-allied neighbors, Tehran has decreased the intensity of strikes, instead focusing its strategy on creating economic uncertainty by trying to block the only waterway used by vessels transporting a fifth of the world’s oil and gas daily.

Tehran has called on countries in the region to remove US bases and end their reliance on Washington for defense. Most of Iran’s regional neighbors field militaries armed by the US, but have slowly begun diversifying their arsenals and formalizing new military alliances amid concerns over Washington’s commitment to defending its allies.

The Mecca Alliance is part of a “broader effort” to develop a more “independent regional security architecture,” Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran branch of Israel’s military intelligence, wrote on X.

“The decision to engage directly with Tehran is equally significant,” Citrinowicz added. “It reflects not only recognition of the Iranian regime but also an understanding that Iran remains a central regional player whose influence cannot simply be ignored.”

Iranian officials have welcomed the initiative, and some, including former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, see it as an opportunity to move toward a broader security framework between the region and away from dependence on the US. Yet, these developments do not yet signal an immediate diplomatic breakthrough, Azizi of the Crisis Group said.

“Tehran wants credible guarantees that any agreement would prevent another military attack, and it is difficult to see how Saudi Arabia, Turkey or Pakistan could provide such guarantees or exert sufficient influence over Trump to secure them,” he said.

“Unless these countries bring something new to the table that could change the calculations in either Tehran or Washington, the meeting is unlikely to produce a substantive breakthrough,” Azizi added. “For now, it looks more like a last-minute attempt to prevent the resumption of war than the beginning of a new diplomatic process.”

沙特通讯社/供稿/路透社/文件

沙特阿拉伯及其盟友周一派遣高级安全官员前往伊朗进行会谈，原因是担心美国和以色列可能发动新的军事行动，使中东陷入进一步的动荡。

巴基斯坦军方首脑阿西姆·穆尼尔和土耳其情报局长易卜拉欣·卡林与沙特王子哈立德·本·萨勒曼在德黑兰会见了伊朗高级官员，其中包括国家安全局局长穆赫辛·雷扎伊和总统马苏德·佩泽什基安。

此次在德黑兰举行的会晤正值中东局势紧张之际，外界猜测美国总统特朗普可能在下周中期选举后下令对伊朗发动新的打击。这也是自也门胡塞武装（伊朗支持的武装组织）上月升级对沙特目标的袭击以来，伊朗和沙特阿拉伯之间的首次高层接触。

沙特外交部官员雷耶德·克里姆利表示，此次会谈将讨论“持续危机”各方之间的“缓和局势”。伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴盖伊告诉记者，此次会谈可能成为“建立区域安全框架”的序幕。

吉姆·沃森/法新社/盖蒂图片社

如果特朗普选择这样做，美国已制定了对伊朗进行大规模打击的计划。

巴盖伊补充说：“我们一直强调，只有依靠该地区各国的意愿和安全考量，才能确保地区安全。”

沙特阿拉伯、土耳其和巴基斯坦组成了麦加联盟——一个由该地区三大强国组成的新联盟。该联盟规定，对其中任何一个成员国的攻击都被视为对所有成员国的攻击。由于该联盟将拥有核武器的巴基斯坦、土耳其的军事实力和沙特阿拉伯的财政资源联合起来，因此备受关注。

自2月份战争爆发以来，巴基斯坦一直是华盛顿和德黑兰之间的重要中间人。

国际危机组织（ICG）高级伊朗问题分析师哈米德雷扎·阿齐兹告诉CNN：“此次会晤的意义主要在于其时机和与会官员。此时正值伊朗和美国之间爆发新一轮战争的风险日益增加，而《麦加条约》的三个成员国都面临着直接的安全风险。”

沙特阿拉伯王室成员、沙特实际领导人王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼的弟弟哈立德·本·萨勒曼的访问令观察人士感到意外。伊朗和沙特阿拉伯代表着相互竞争的宗教意识形态，几十年来一直处于地区敌对状态，并在今年早些时候美国和以色列对伊朗发动战争后，最终演变为公开对抗。

胡塞武装威胁下，美国下令部分驻沙特阿拉伯大使馆人员及其家属撤离

今年2月，美国和以色列杀害了伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊及其众多高级军官和顶尖核科学家后，伊朗袭击了包括沙特阿拉伯在内的华盛顿地区盟友。伊朗的盟友和代理人，包括伊拉克和也门的势力，也袭击了沙特的石油设施和民用基础设施，给沙特王国带来了前所未有的压力。

中东各国担心，美国对伊朗发动新的攻势，会招致伊朗进一步的报复，此前中东地区已经经历了八个月的动荡。

两名美国官员告诉CNN，目前美军已在该地区部署了足够的兵力，足以发动潜在的袭击。消息人士补充说，美国新的军事行动规模可能远不止于“清理草坪”或维持现状，例如打击雷达、发射器和其他可以迅速重建的伊朗资产——自特朗普今年早些时候停止全面作战行动以来，伊朗一直都是这样做的。

在伊朗对美国盟友邻国进行数月的导弹和无人机报复性袭击后，德黑兰降低了袭击强度，转而将战略重点放在制造经济不确定性上，试图封锁每天运输全球五分之一石油和天然气的船只所使用的唯一水道。

德黑兰呼吁该地区各国撤走美军基地，结束对华盛顿防务的依赖。伊朗的大多数地区邻国都拥有由美国提供的武器装备，但由于担忧华盛顿是否会履行其保护盟友的承诺，这些国家已开始逐步实现武器库多元化，并正式建立新的军事联盟。

以色列军事情报局伊朗分局前局长丹尼·西特里诺维奇在 X 上写道，麦加联盟是“更广泛努力”的一部分，旨在发展一个更加“独立的区域安全架构”。

西特里诺维奇补充说：“直接与德黑兰接触的决定同样意义重大。这不仅体现了对伊朗政权的承认，也体现了对伊朗仍然是地区核心力量、其影响力不容忽视的认识。”

伊朗官员对这一倡议表示欢迎，包括前外交部长穆罕默德·贾瓦德·扎里夫在内的一些官员认为，这是推动该地区建立更广泛的安全框架、摆脱对美国依赖的契机。然而，危机组织阿齐兹表示，这些进展并不意味着外交上会立即取得突破。

他说：“德黑兰希望得到可信的保证，确保任何协议都能防止再次发生军事袭击，但很难看出沙特阿拉伯、土耳其或巴基斯坦如何能够提供这样的保证，或者如何能够对特朗普施加足够的影响力来确保获得这些保证。”

阿齐兹补充说：“除非这些国家提出一些能够改变德黑兰或华盛顿考量的新方案，否则此次会晤不太可能取得实质性突破。就目前来看，这更像是阻止战争重燃的最后努力，而不是开启新的外交进程。”