Musk's grim outlook hits neoclouds as debt concerns mount

FILE PHOTO: CoreWeave logo is seen in this illustration taken July 20, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Oct 26 (Reuters) - Shares of neocloud companies ⁠declined on Monday after SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said the sector could face ⁠consolidation and failures, adding to concerns over a widening gap between AI infrastructure investment ‌and revenue generation.

CoreWeave, which has become a poster child for mounting concerns over heavy AI spending, declined 1.6%, while Nebius Group fell 4% and IREN lost 1.5%.

Shares of Applied Digital shed 2%.

In a social media post on Sunday, ​Musk said that neocloud companies would face significant consolidation and ⁠failures, adding that SpaceX would not buy ⁠any neocloud companies, calling it "pointless".

"200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some ⁠will ‌make it through, but not many," he said.

"Musk is correct. You're going to need another source of revenue and profits in order to finance these projects moving forward. The ⁠cost of capital is too high to make the returns ​attractive," said Thomas Hayes, chairman ‌at Great Hill Capital in New York.

In an email to Reuters, a CoreWeave spokesperson ⁠said that the ​company continues to see opportunities to finance its growth, underscored by qualities such as "differentiated technology".

Musk was not alone in flagging the risks to the sector.

Earlier this month, research firm Gartner said CoreWeave was at the ⁠top of the 100-odd neoclouds most exposed to the ​increasing leverage, and added that 80% of the companies could cease independent operations by 2032.

Some brokerages expect AI spending to shoot past a trillion dollars next year, adding to investor concerns about the ⁠repercussions of severe dependence on debt, at a time when AI assets face rapid depreciation and markets price in more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Bonds of Nebius maturing in 2034 and those of CoreWeave expiring in 2033 have hit record lows on the concerns.

CoreWeave, Nebius, Applied ​Digital and TeraWulf have reported quarterly losses over the past one ⁠year, while IREN has not turned a profit in the past three quarters, raising scrutiny over ​profitability.

Shares of CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN have fallen more than ‌30% this month alone. Investors betting on their ​fall have raked in at least $6 billion in paper profits.

(Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru and Vidya Ranganathan in London; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli)

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资料图片：这张摄于2026年7月20日的插图显示了CoreWeave的标志。路透社/Dado Ruvic/插图/资料图片

10 月 26 日（路透社）——SpaceX 首席执行官埃隆·马斯克周一表示，新云行业可能面临“整合和失败”，这加剧了人们对人工智能基础设施投资与收入之间差距不断扩大的担忧，受此影响，新云公司的股价下跌。

CoreWeave 已成为人们对人工智能巨额支出日益增长的担忧的典型代表，其股价下跌了 1.6%，而 Nebius Group 下跌了 4%，IREN 下跌了 1.5%。

Applied Digital 的股价下跌了 2%。

周日，马斯克在社交媒体上发帖称，新云公司将面临严重的整合和失败，并补充说 SpaceX 不会收购任何新云公司，称其“毫无意义”。

“200多个新星云将会像小鱼一样死亡和合并。有些能挺过去，但不会很多，”他说。

“马斯克说得对。你需要其他收入和利润来源来为这些项目提供资金。目前的资本成本太高，回报难以令人满意，”纽约大山资本董事长托马斯·海耶斯说道。

CoreWeave 的一位发言人在给路透社的电子邮件中表示，该公司继续看到为其增长提供资金的机会，而“差异化技术”等特质凸显了这些机会。

马斯克并非唯一一个指出该行业风险的人。

本月初，研究公司 Gartner 表示，CoreWeave 在 100 多家受杠杆率上升影响最大的云服务提供商中名列前茅，并补充说，到 2032 年，其中 80% 的公司可能会停止独立运营。

一些券商预计，明年人工智能支出将突破万亿美元，这加剧了投资者对严重依赖债务后果的担忧。与此同时，人工智能资产面临快速贬值，市场也预期美联储将进一步加息。

受此影响，Nebius 2034 年到期的债券和 CoreWeave 2033 年到期的债券均跌至历史新低。

CoreWeave、Nebius、Applied Digital 和 TeraWulf 在过去一年中均报告了季度亏损，而 IREN 在过去三个季度中均未实现盈利，这引发了人们对其盈利能力的关注。

CoreWeave、Nebius 和 IREN 的股价仅本月就下跌了超过 30%。押注它们股价下跌的投资者已经获得了至少 60 亿美元的账面利润。

（班加罗尔的 Johann M Cherian 和 Purvi Agarwal 以及伦敦的 Vidya Ranganathan 报道；Shinjini Ganguli 编辑）

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