[COVER STORY] Chip exports drive Korea's Q3 growth to 1%, triple BOK forecast

Korea’s economy grew 1 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, as semiconductor exports helped it exceed the Bank of Korea’s 0.3 percent projection. The stronger performance followed growth of 1.8 percent in the first quarter and 0.6 percent in the second. Bank of Korea official Lee Dong-won said annual growth could reach 4 percent if fourth-quarter growth is at least 1.4 percent. The Ministry of Finance and Economy said the data makes per capita GNI of $40,000 this year almost certain.

Facilities investment rose 4.1 percent, mainly on increased spending on machinery, including semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

Investment in intellectual property products increased 2.3 percent as research and development and software spending grew.

Exports rose 2.3 percent, while imports increased 2.4 percent, led by crude oil and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

Manufacturing grew 2 percent, agriculture, forestry and fisheries rose 5.9 percent, and services edged up 0.2 percent.

The Bank of Korea is scheduled to release its revised growth forecast in November; its August forecast was 3.3 percent.

Published Oct 27, 2026 8:01 am KST

Updated Oct 27, 2026 6:00 pm KST

GNI per capita almost certain to top $40,000 in 2026 for 1st time: finance ministry

Containers are stacked at a port in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, Sept. 6. Yonhap

Korea's economy expanded 1 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, extending its stronger-than-expected growth on the back of booming semiconductor exports, the Bank of Korea (BOK) said Tuesday.

After exceeding expectations in the first and second quarters, the economy continued to outperform forecasts in the third quarter, putting annual growth within reach of 3 percent, with some saying it may even reach up to 4 percent.

Preliminary data from the central bank showed that real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1 percent in the July-September period, significantly exceeding the BOK's own projection of 0.3 percent for the quarter.

The country's quarterly growth rebounded sharply to 1.8 percent in the first quarter from a 0.1 percent contraction in the fourth quarter of 2025, before standing at 0.6 percent in the second quarter, also beating expectations.

In the third quarter, facilities investment rose 4.1 percent, mainly on increased investment in machinery, including semiconductor manufacturing equipment. Investment in intellectual property products grew 2.3 percent as spending on research and development and software increased.

Exports grew 2.3 percent, driven mainly by semiconductors and electrical equipment. Imports rose 2.4 percent, led by increases in crude oil and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

By industry, manufacturing grew 2 percent, led by computers, electronic and optical equipment, as well as machinery and equipment.

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries rose 5.9 percent, led by crop cultivation and fishing. Services edged up 0.2 percent, supported by business services, information and communications, and transportation.

Lee Dong-won, director general of the Bank of Korea's economic statistics department, speaks during a briefing at the bank headquarters in Seoul, Tuesday. Yonhap

The stronger-than-expected growth is likely to prompt the BOK to raise its 3.3 percent growth forecast for this year, announced in August. The central bank is scheduled to release its revised forecast in November.

Lee Dong-won, director general of the BOK's economic statistics department, said an annual growth of 4 percent remained possible depending on the economy's performance in the fourth quarter.

If achieved, it would mark the highest annual growth rate in five years, since the economy expanded 4.7 percent in 2021.

"Even if growth in the fourth quarter is flat compared with the previous quarter, annual growth would mathematically come to 3.6 percent. If the economy grows 1.4 percent or more in the fourth quarter, an annual growth of 4 percent would be possible," Lee said during a briefing.

"Computers and electronic equipment, including semiconductors, accounted for about 60 percent of GDP growth from a year earlier, with semiconductors alone estimated to have contributed about half."

The Ministry of Finance and Economy said the latest GDP data makes it almost certain that Korea will achieve a per capita gross national income (GNI) of $40,000 this year.

The Korean won's appreciation against the U.S. dollar and an upward revision to the GDP growth outlook are both contributing to the increase in per capita GNI.

"The country's per capita income, which has remained in the $30,000 range, is expected to rise to the $40,000 range. It is encouraging that there is further momentum for it to rise even higher," a ministry official said during a briefing.

Per capita GNI is calculated by taking the total income earned by a country's residents at home and abroad and dividing it by its population. It is commonly converted into U.S. dollars to compare living standards across countries.

If achieved, the milestone would come 12 years after Korea's per capita GNI first surpassed $30,000 in 2014.

韩国经济第三季度环比增长1%，半导体出口的强劲增长使其增速超过了韩国央行0.3%的预期。此前，韩国经济第一季度和第二季度分别增长了1.8%和0.6%。韩国央行官员李东元表示，如果第四季度增速至少达到1.4%，全年增速有望达到4%。韩国财政经济部表示，这些数据几乎可以确定今年韩国人均国民总收入将达到4万美元。

设施投资增长了 4.1%，主要原因是机械设备方面的支出增加，包括半导体制造设备。

随着研发和软件支出的增长，知识产权产品投资增长了 2.3%。

出口增长2.3%，进口增长2.4%，其中原油和半导体制造设备带动了增长。

制造业增长2%，农业、林业和渔业增长5.9%，服务业小幅增长0.2%。

韩国央行计划于11月发布修订后的经济增长预测；其8月份的预测为3.3%。

发布于2026年10月27日 上午8:01（韩国标准时间）

更新于2026年10月27日韩国时间下午6:00

财政部：人均国民总收入几乎肯定会在2026年首次突破4万美元。

9月6日，京畿道平泽市港口堆放着集装箱。（韩联社）

韩国央行（BOK）周二表示，韩国经济第三季度环比增长1%，在半导体出口蓬勃发展的推动下，延续了强于预期的增长势头。

在第一季度和第二季度超出预期之后，第三季度经济继续超出预期，使年增长率有望达到 3%，一些人甚至认为可能会达到 4%。

中央银行的初步数据显示，7月至9月期间实际国内生产总值（GDP）增长了1%，远超韩国央行此前预测的该季度0.3%的增幅。

该国季度经济增长率从2025年第四季度萎缩0.1%大幅反弹至第一季度的1.8%，第二季度达到0.6%，也超出预期。

第三季度，设施投资增长4.1%，主要得益于机械设备（包括半导体制造设备）投资的增加。知识产权产品投资增长2.3%，主要由于研发和软件支出增加。

出口增长2.3%，主要得益于半导体和电气设备的出口增长。进口增长2.4%，主要受原油和半导体制造设备进口增长的推动。

按行业划分，制造业增长了 2%，其中计算机、电子和光学设备以及机械设备带动了增长。

农业、林业和渔业增长5.9%，其中作物种植和渔业带动增长。服务业小幅增长0.2%，主要得益于商业服务、信息通信和交通运输业的发展。

韩国央行经济统计部部长李东元周二在首尔央行总部举行的新闻发布会上发表讲话。（韩联社）

强于预期的增长可能会促使韩国央行上调其8月份公布的今年3.3%的增长预期。央行计划于11月发布修订后的预测。

韩国央行经济统计部门负责人李东元表示，根据第四季度经济表现，4%的年增长率仍有可能实现。

如果实现，这将是五年来最高的年度增长率，因为2021年经济增长了4.7%。

李在简报会上表示：“即使第四季度经济增长与上一季度持平，从数学角度来看，全年增长率也将达到3.6%。如果第四季度经济增长1.4%或更多，全年增长率就有可能达到4%。”

“计算机和电子设备（包括半导体）约占上年GDP增​​长的60%，其中半导体一项估计贡献了约一半。”

韩国财政经济部表示，最新的GDP数据显示，韩国今年人均国民总收入（GNI）几乎肯定将达到4万美元。

韩元对美元升值以及GDP增长预期上调，都对人均国民总收入的增长做出了贡献。

“该国人均收入一直维持在3万美元左右，预计将升至4万美元左右。令人鼓舞的是，这一数字还有进一步增长的势头，”一位部委官员在简报会上表示。

人均国民总收入（GNI）的计算方法是将一个国家居民在国内和国外获得的收入总和除以该国人口数。通常将其换算成美元，以便比较各国的生活水平。

如果实现，这将是韩国人均国民总收入在 2014 年首次超过 3 万美元 12 年后的又一个里程碑。