Exit polls following Israeli elections indicate no clear winner

The official results are due to be published on November 4, more than a week after the vote.

A man lets his son cast his vote at a polling station on October 27, 2026 in Bnei Brak, near Tel Aviv, Israel [Chris McGrath/Getty Images]

Exit polls following what many pundits and voters have billed as the most pivotal election in Israel’s history indicate no clear winner in the hard-fought contest.

According to exit polls, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to secure 50 seats, while the bloc led by opposition candidate Gadi Eisenkot is expected to win 52 or 53 seats. Sixty-one seats are needed to form a majority government. Arab parties are projected to collectively win 18 seats.

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Polling stations closed at 10pm (20:00 GMT) local time. Preliminary results are expected on Wednesday, followed by a final tally on Friday. The official results are due to be published on November 4, eight days after the vote.

Exit polls are based on interviews with voters immediately after they have cast their ballots. The interviews help project the election’s outcome and have in previous elections tended to anticipate the results closely.

Voter turnout in the Israeli election reached 74.3 percent as of 8pm (18:00 GMT), according to data released by the Central Elections Committee. By comparison, turnout in the 2022 election was 70.63 percent.

Polls predicted a tight race between incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and leading opposition candidate Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the Yashar party and a former army chief.

Israel’s Central Elections Committee rejected a request by Netanyahu’s Likud Party to extend voting hours.

The election is the first since Israel launched its genocidal war on Gaza three years ago, following Hamas-led attacks on the country, and is widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s handling of the events on October 7, 2023 and the conflicts that followed.

官方结果预计将于11月4日公布，比投票日晚一周多。

2026年10月27日，在以色列特拉维夫附近的布内布拉克，一名男子让他的儿子在投票站投票。[克里斯·麦格拉斯/盖蒂图片社]

许多专家和选民都称此次选举是以色列历史上最关键的选举，但出口民调显示，这场竞争激烈的选举没有明显的赢家。

根据出口民调，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡领导的联盟预计将获得50个席位，而反对派候选人加迪·艾森科特领导的联盟预计将赢得52或53个席位。组建多数派政府需要61个席位。阿拉伯政党预计将共赢得18个席位。

2026年以色列大选结果（共3个）：何时才能知道谁获胜以及接下来会发生什么？

（共3条） 以色列和美国大选后，伊朗人严阵以待，防范新一轮袭击 （共3条）

以色列三大阿拉伯政党指责内塔尼亚胡煽动仇恨以恐吓选民（名单共3个）。

投票站于当地时间晚上10点（格林尼治标准时间20:00）关闭。初步结果预计将于周三公布，最终计票结果将于周五公布。官方结果将于11月4日公布，即投票后八天。

出口民调是基于对投票后选民的采访而进行的。这些采访有助于预测选举结果，并且在以往的选举中往往与最终结果吻合良好。

根据中央选举委员会公布的数据，截至晚上8点（格林尼治标准时间18:00），以色列大选投票率达到74.3%。相比之下，2022年大选的投票率为70.63%。

民调预测，现任总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡与主要反对派候选人、亚沙尔党领导人、前陆军总司令加迪·艾森科特之间的竞争将十分激烈。

以色列中央选举委员会驳回了内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团延长投票时间的请求。

这是以色列自三年前哈马斯领导的袭击加沙后对加沙发动种族灭绝战争以来的首次选举，被广泛视为对内塔尼亚胡处理 2023 年 10 月 7 日事件及随后冲突的一次全民公投。