China unlikely to mediate potential Trump-Kim summit: U.S. experts

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WASHINGTON, Oct. 27 (Yonhap) -- China is unlikely to mediate a potential summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, U.S. experts assessed Tuesday, amid Trump's past signals to resume dialogue with Pyongyang.

Sydney Seiler, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) who previously served as the national intelligence officer for North Korea, made the assessment during a CSIS podcast, arguing that neither Pyongyang nor other key players see an urgent need for renewed U.S.-North Korea talks.

"But none of them is feeling a sense of urgency, to include obviously Kim Jong-un, that the U.S. and DPRK need to talk right now," Seiler said, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"In fact, there's much to be accomplished by refusing to talk," he added, suggesting that Pyongyang could gain leverage by increasing Washington's eagerness for negotiations.

Seiler expressed skepticism that Beijing would play a role in bringing Trump and Kim together or "coaching" Kim.

"I just don't see Xi Jinping taking a lot of political risk, like Moon Jae-in style," he said, referring to the former South Korean president's efforts to facilitate earlier U.S.-North Korea summit diplomacy. "I don't think China is looking to do that."

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at CSIS, offered a similar view, suggesting that Beijing might be willing to provide a venue but would be reluctant to undertake substantial diplomatic efforts to arrange one.

"They're really not interested in doing any of the heavy lifting," Cha said when discussing China's potential role in mediating a Trump-Kim meeting.

This AFP file photo shows U.S. President Donald Trump (R) shaking hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un after signing a joint statement at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa Island in Singapore on June 12, 2018. (Yonhap)

He recalled that Beijing had previously exerted economic pressure on North Korea to encourage negotiations but left Washington to handle the substantive diplomatic challenges.

Even if Trump and Kim were to meet, Seiler predicted that their relationship could deteriorate again within six to 12 months in the absence of substantive agreements, as occurred following their previous summit diplomacy.

However, he also predicted that meaningful progress could be possible if North Korea returned to negotiations prepared to discuss issues such as arms control.

"I think the president's (Trump's) intention in that regard is not delusional or false. I really do believe, under the right conditions, he believes he can move the ball on the peace issue, reducing tensions, maybe not denuclearizing North Korea, but making the peninsula a much safer place than it is today," said Seiler.

Seiler also said Kim's recent surprise visit to the Chinese border city of Dandong suggested that the North Korean leader was seeking to demonstrate his ability to maintain close relations with both China and Russia.

"I think Kim probably sees some value in gently reminding Russia that, you know, 'We like our new relationship. We're there to support you, but you can't leave us hanging dry,'" Seiler said.

Kim made a one-day visit to Dandong on Saturday, meeting Wang Huning, China's top political adviser, and visiting a war memorial and a bus factory amid efforts by Pyongyang and Beijing to deepen ties.

The visit came ahead of a planned Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen next month, which U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to attend. Trump has expressed interest in resuming dialogue with Kim.

odissy@yna.co.kr (END)

S. Korea sees possibility of N. Korea-U.S. dialogue discussions during Kim Jong-un's China visit

Unification ministry hopes Kim's Dandong trip revives dialogue

China unlikely to mediate potential Trump-Kim summit: U.S. experts

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华盛顿，10月27日（韩联社）——美国专家周二评估认为，尽管特朗普过去曾发出恢复与平壤对话的信号，但中国不太可能斡旋美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与朝鲜领导人金正恩之间可能举行的峰会。

曾任朝鲜国家情报官员的战略与国际研究中心 (CSIS) 高级顾问悉尼·塞勒在 CSIS 的一个播客节目中做出评估，认为平壤和其他主要参与者都不认为迫切需要重启美朝对话。

“但他们中没有一个人，包括金正恩在内，感到美国和朝鲜现在需要对话的紧迫性，”塞勒说，他指的是朝鲜的正式名称——朝鲜民主主义人民共和国。

“事实上，拒绝谈判反而能取得很多成果，”他补充道，暗示平壤可以通过提高华盛顿的谈判意愿来获得筹码。

塞勒表示怀疑，北京是否会在促成特朗普和金正恩会面或“指导”金正恩方面发挥作用。

“我不认为习近平会像文在寅那样冒很大的政治风险，”他说道，指的是韩国前总统文在寅此前为促成美朝峰会所做的努力。“我认为中国没有这样的打算。”

战略与国际研究中心韩国事务主席 Victor Cha 也表达了类似的观点，他认为北京可能愿意提供场地，但不愿付出实质性的外交努力来安排场地。

“他们真的对承担任何繁重的工作不感兴趣，”车在谈到中国​​在调解特朗普-金正恩会晤中可能扮演的角色时说道。

这张法新社资料照片显示，2018年6月12日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（右）在新加坡圣淘沙岛嘉佩乐酒店签署联合声明后与朝鲜领导人金正恩握手。（韩联社）

他回忆说，北京此前曾对朝鲜施加经济压力以促使其进行谈判，但将实质性的外交挑战留给了华盛顿处理。

即使特朗普和金正恩会面，塞勒也预测，如果没有实质性协议，他们的关系可能会在六到十二个月内再次恶化，就像他们上次峰会外交之后发生的那样。

然而，他也预测，如果朝鲜重返谈判桌，准备讨论军备控制等问题，那么就有可能取得实质性进展。

“我认为总统（特朗普）在这方面的意图并非妄想或虚假。我真的相信，在合适的条件下，他相信自己能够在和平问题上取得进展，缓解紧张局势，或许无法实现朝鲜半岛无核化，但至少能让朝鲜半岛比现在安全得多，”塞勒说。

塞勒还表示，金正恩最近对中国边境城市丹东的突访表明，这位朝鲜领导人正在寻求展示他有能力与中国和俄罗斯都保持密切关系。

“我认为金正恩可能觉得温和地提醒俄罗斯一些事情是有价值的，你知道，‘我们喜欢我们之间的新关系。我们会支持你们，但你们不能让我们孤立无援，’”塞勒说。

周六，金正恩对丹东进行了为期一天的访问，会见了中国最高政治顾问王沪宁，并参观了战争纪念馆和一家公交车厂。此次访问正值平壤和北京努力深化关系之际。

此次访问正值亚太经合组织（APEC）峰会召开前夕，该峰会计划于下月在深圳举行，美国总统特朗普预计将出席。特朗普曾表示有意与金正恩恢复对话。

odissy@yna.co.kr (完)

韩国认为金正恩访华期间，朝美之间有可能举行对话会谈。

统一部希望金正恩的丹东之行能够重启对话

美国专家：中国不太可能斡旋潜在的特朗普-金正恩峰会